Tropical Storm Claudette Forms Then Quickly Makes Landfall In Louisiana

000

WTNT33 KNHC 191438

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Claudette Advisory Number   8

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021

1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG

PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH

CAROLINA COAST...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...31.0N 89.7W

ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NNE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA

ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF MOBILE ALABAMA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for a portion of the North

Carolina coast from Cape Fear to Duck, including Pamlico and 

Albemarle Sounds.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from the Mouth of

the Mississippi River westward to Morgan City, Louisiana, and for

Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County line

Florida.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast and across the

southeast U.S. should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Claudette

was located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 89.7 West. Claudette

is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A turn 

toward the northeast is expected later today, followed by a motion 

toward the east-northeast tonight or Sunday.  On the forecast 

track, the system should move farther inland across portions of 

southeast U.S. through Sunday night, and over the western Atlantic 

Ocean on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) 

with higher gusts.  Claudette is expected to weaken to a tropical 

depression later today, however, Claudette is forecast to become a 

tropical storm again when it moves across the Carolinas Sunday 

night or early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)

southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface 

observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,

and on the web at

www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Claudette is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to

10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions

of coastal Mississippi and Alabama, and the western Florida 

Panhandle through the afternoon. Considerable flash, urban and 

small stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed minor to 

isolated moderate river flooding are likely across these areas.

As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, heavy

rain will occur across central Alabama, central and northern

Georgia, and into the Piedmont of the Carolinas, resulting in 

rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 

inches.  Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river 

flooding impacts are possible.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will

cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising

waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if

the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft

Mobile Bay...2-3 ft

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Mouth of the Pearl River...1-2 ft

Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne...1-2 ft

Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL...1-2 ft

Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, Saint Andrew Bay...1-2 ft

Cape Lookout, NC to NC/VA Border...1-3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge

and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For

information specific to your area, please see products issued by

your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions should continue along the coast in

the warning area for a few more hours.  Tropical storm conditions

are possible in the watch area Sunday night and Monday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across

southeast Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle, and southwest

Georgia.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$

Forecaster Cangialosi

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

 

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Claudette Advisory Number   7

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021

400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

 

...TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE FORMS...

...HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING DANGEROUS FLOODING REMAINS THE PRIMARY

HAZARD...

 

 

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...29.6N 90.7W

ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA

ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM WSW OF MOBILE ALABAMA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

 

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

 

None.

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County line

Florida.

* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

 

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

 

Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor

the progress of this system.

 

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Claudette was

located inland near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 90.7 West. 

Claudette is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 

km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later today, with a 

turn toward the east-northeast expected by tonight or Sunday.  On 

the forecast track, the system should move farther inland over 

Louisiana during the next several hours, then move across portions 

of the Gulf coast and southeastern states through the weekend, and 

over the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday.

 

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher 

gusts. Claudette is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by 

tonight and become a post-tropical cyclone on Sunday.  The system 

is forecast to re-develop over the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday.

 

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)

from the center.

 

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

 

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone 

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, 

and on the web at 

www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

 

RAINFALL: Claudette is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 

10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions 

of the central Gulf Coast. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts 

are possible across coastal Mississippi and Alabama, and the far 

western Florida Panhandle through the afternoon. Considerable flash, 

urban and small stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed 

minor to isolated moderate river flooding are likely across the 

remainder of the Central Gulf Coast. 

As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, heavy 

rain will expand across central Alabama, central and northern 

Georgia, into the Piedmont of the Carolinas, resulting in rainfall 

totals of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. 

Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding impacts 

are possible. 

 

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will

cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising

waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if

the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

 

Morgan City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft

Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay...2-3 ft

Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft

Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL...1-2 ft

Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-2 ft

Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA...1-2 ft

Vermilion Bay...1-2 ft

 

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge

and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For

information specific to your area, please see products issued by

your local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions should continue along the coast in

the warning area today.

 

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across 

southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, the western Florida 

Panhandle, and southwest Georgia.

 

 

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.

Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

 

$$

Forecaster Blake

 

NNNN

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

 

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Claudette Intermediate Advisory Number 7A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021

700 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

 

...CLAUDETTE INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG 

PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

 

 

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...30.4N 90.1W

ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA

ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM W OF MOBILE ALABAMA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

 

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

 

None.

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County line

Florida.

* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

 

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

 

Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast and across the 

southeast U.S. should monitor the progress of this system.

 

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Claudette was 

located inland near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 90.1 West. 

Claudette is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 

km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later today, followed 

by a motion toward the east-northeast tonight or Sunday.  On the 

forecast track, the system should move farther inland over Louisiana 

during the next few hours, then move across portions of the 

southeastern states later today and Sunday, and over the western 

Atlantic Ocean on Monday.

 

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher

gusts. Claudette is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by

tonight and become a post-tropical cyclone on Sunday.  The system is

forecast to become a tropical storm again over the western Atlantic 

Ocean on Monday.

 

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)

east of the center.  A National Ocean Service station on Petit Bois 

Island, Mississippi, recently reported maximum winds of 39 mph (63 

km/h) with a gust to 46 mph (74 km/h).

 

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface 

observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

 

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,

and on the web at

www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

 

RAINFALL: Claudette is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to

10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions

of the central Gulf Coast. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts

are possible across coastal Mississippi and Alabama, and the far

western Florida Panhandle through the afternoon. Considerable flash,

urban and small stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed

minor to isolated moderate river flooding are likely across the

remainder of the Central Gulf Coast.

 

As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, heavy

rain will expand across central Alabama, central and northern

Georgia, and into the Piedmont of the Carolinas, resulting in 

rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 

inches. Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river 

flooding impacts are possible.

 

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will

cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising

waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if

the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

 

Morgan City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft

Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay...2-3 ft

Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft

Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL...1-2 ft

Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-2 ft

Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA...1-2 ft

Vermilion Bay...1-2 ft

 

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge

and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For

information specific to your area, please see products issued by

your local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions should continue along the coast in

the warning area today.

 

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across

southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, the western Florida

Panhandle, and southwest Georgia.

 

 

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

 

$$

Forecaster Cangialosi

 

NNNN

214 

WTNT43 KNHC 191439

TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number   8

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021

1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Claudette continues to move inland, with the center now located

over southern Mississippi.  Most of the showers and thunderstorms

are still located on the storm's east side and extend across

portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.  Based

on surface observations, the initial intensity is estimated to be

35 kt, and those winds are occurring along the coast within the

warning area and over the northern Gulf of Mexico waters.

The tropical storm is moving north-northeastward at 12 kt.  A turn

to the northeast is expected to occur soon, followed by an

east-northeastward motion tonight and Sunday as Claudette moves in

the westerlies on the north side of the subtropical ridge.  This

motion should take the system across portions of the southeast U.S.

during the next couple of days and then over the western Atlantic

and toward Atlantic Canada early next week.  The models are in

relatively good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the

middle of the guidance envelope.  This forecast is very similar to

the previous one, except a little to the right at the longer range

forecast times.

In the short term, land interaction should cause weakening and 

Claudette will likely become a tropical depression later today.  In 

36 to 48 hours, however, the global models, except for the GFS, show 

Claudette restrengthening when it nears and moves offshore of the 

Carolinas Sunday night and Monday.  This predicted strengthening is 

likely due in part to baroclinic processes.  The ECMWF model is the 

most aggressive during that portion of the forecast showing 

Claudette having peak winds of 45-50 kt along the coast when the 

center is located over eastern North Carolina.  Once the system 

moves north of the Gulf Stream Current in a few days, it is forecast 

to transition to an extratropical cyclone prior to reaching Atlantic 

Canada.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the 

previous one, and in line with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and

life-threatening flash flooding across coastal Mississippi and

Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through the afternoon.

Considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding, will continue

through the weekend across these areas, with flood impacts spreading

northeastward into interior portions of the Southeast.

2. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring along portions of

the Gulf Coast from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the

Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida.  These winds will continue

for a few more hours.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the

North Carolina coast Sunday night and Monday, and a Tropical Storm

Watch has been issued for that area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 31.0N  89.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

 12H  20/0000Z 32.0N  88.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

 24H  20/1200Z 32.9N  85.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

 36H  21/0000Z 33.7N  81.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

 48H  21/1200Z 35.0N  77.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

 60H  22/0000Z 37.5N  72.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER

 72H  22/1200Z 40.4N  67.7W   40 KT  45 MPH

 96H  23/1200Z 49.5N  57.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Cangialosi

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

 

Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number   7

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021

400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

 

The system that we have been tracking for a few days finally has 

enough of a well-defined center and organized convection to be 

considered a tropical storm.  While the organization is not

classical by any means, and there are some hybrid characteristics,

the cyclone most resembles a sheared tropical storm, so the system

is now Tropical Storm Claudette.  The initial wind speed remains 40

kt, in line with surface observations and radar.  These winds are

primarily occurring in a strong band on the eastern side of the

cyclone well away from the center.

 

Claudette is moving north-northeastward at about 10 kt.  The storm

should turn northeastward and east-northeastward over the next day

or so while it moves around the northern side of the subtropical

ridge and gradually weakens to a depression/post-tropical cyclone.  

The biggest change to the forecast is that almost all of the 

reliable global models, save the GFS, are showing the system 

regenerating near or offshore of the North Carolina coast in 60 to 

72 hours.  Thus the forecast has been extended from the last one 

and now shows the system as a tropical cyclone over the western 

Atlantic Ocean.  The new intensity forecast is more conservative 

than most of the guidance, but is higher than the previous advisory. 

 Extratropical transition is expected by 96 hours near Nova Scotia.

 

Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users

should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and

wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center.  Impacts

along the northern Gulf coast will continue.

 

Key Messages:

 

1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and 

life-threatening flash flooding across coastal Mississippi and 

Alabama, and the far western Florida Panhandle through the 

afternoon. Considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, 

will continue through the weekend along the central Gulf Coast, 

with flood impacts spreading northeastward into interior portions 

of the Southeast.  

 

2. Tropical storm conditions are occurring along portions of the

central Gulf Coast from east of Morgan City, Louisiana, to the

Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans.  These

winds will spread inland and continue through this afternoon.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  19/0900Z 29.6N  90.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND

 12H  19/1800Z 30.9N  89.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

 24H  20/0600Z 32.2N  87.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

 36H  20/1800Z 33.3N  84.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

 48H  21/0600Z 34.2N  80.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

 60H  21/1800Z 35.8N  76.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

 72H  22/0600Z 38.5N  71.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE

 96H  23/0600Z 47.0N  61.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Blake

 

NNNN