Winter Storm Lola

897

FXUS61 KCAR 050344

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1044 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will remain to our south tonight. Low pressure

will approach Wednesday night and cross the area Thursday. The

low will continue into the Maritimes Thursday night into Friday

then lift into Labrador on Saturday. An upper level trough will

remain across the region through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Update...

No change to the Winter Weather Advisories. A weak cold front

will approach northern Maine overnight, stalling in the vicinity

of the Saint John Valley late. Expect a chance of light snow or

snow showers across northern areas early tonight with any snow

accumulations less than an inch, with a snow/rain mix Downeast.

Expect a light wintry mix of snow/sleet/freezing rain will then

develop across northern areas later tonight. Across Downeast

areas, expect a chance of rain later tonight, with localized

freezing rain also possible. Low temperatures tonight will range

from the mid 20s to upper 20s north, to around 30s interior

Downeast with lower to mid 30s along the Downeast coast. Have

updated to adjust for current conditions along with expected

overnight temperatures and precipitation chances/types.

Previous Discussion...

A warm front strengthens Wednesday morning as the area moves

into cyclonic flow ahead of the low approaching from the Great

Lakes region. A narrow strip of steadier freezing rain develops

during the morning from the North Woods towards northern

Penobscot and southern Aroostook County. While temperatures will

be near freezing, the concern remains very slick roads as rain

falls on surfaces that have largely been frozen for the past two

months. The worst threat appears to be in northern Aroostook

County where surface temperatures will only slowly creep to

freezing on Wednesday and steadier precip is likely through the

afternoon. Over a tenth of an of freezing rain has been

specified for northern Aroostook after an initial burst of up to

an inch of snow.

Based on this scenario, have issued a Winter Weather Advisory

for north-central zones into early afternoon and a Winter

Weather Advisory for northern Aroostook into Wednesday evening

where conditions may be very slick for the evening commute.

As the afternoon progresses and warmer and more humid air

arrives into the CWA, fog will become increasingly

likely...especially in high terrain and near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

By Wednesday evening the upper level trough axis will be

positioned from the Mid-Atlantic towards the Great Lakes, taking

on a negative tilt as it moves towards Maine. Strong lift and a

low level jet ahead of it will transport moisture northward,

resulting in a period of moderate to heavy rain. Temperatures

will initially be around freezing across far northern Aroostook

County, leading to areas of freezing rain through the evening

before the low level jet strengthens further and scours out the

remaining cold air. Rising temperatures are expected overnight

with most locations reaching into the 40s by daybreak. The core

of the low level jet will arrive Thursday morning, and exit

across the area by mid day to mid afternoon. A strong inversion

and poor low level lapse rates will keep most of the stronger

winds from mixing towards the surface. However, closer to the

coast heavier precipitation could be enough to mix some stronger

wind gusts around 50 to 55mph to the surface during the few

hours where the low level jet is strongest. Wind advisories will

likely be required for the coast with future forecast updates.

The heavy rain and snowmelt will also lead to significant snow

pack loss across southern areas and significant snowpack

compaction with some melting across the north. Additional

details can be found below in the hydrology section. Higher dew

points over cold snow pack will also lead to patches and areas

of fog, some of which may be locally dense.

By Thursday night the low level jet will move east of the area

as a dry slot moves across the area. There will still be enough

lift for drizzle and showers, but significant additional

accumulations are not expected. Colder, drier air will gradually

move in, ending fog. A flash freeze is not expected.

Precipitation transitions to snow showers later Thursday night

into Friday, with little accumulation expected. Temperatures

will be steady or fall gradually to just below freezing Friday.

However, the main story will be the wind. Strong west-northwest

winds will develop first over western areas including the

Central Highlands, then spread eastward through the afternoon.

Gusts to 40 mph are possible, with the strongest gusts to around

55 mph possible across the Central Highlands.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A broad upper level trough will remain across the area Friday

night through Tuesday, with multiple smaller shortwave troughs

briefly enhancing the chances for snow showers at times. Upslope

snow showers will continue Friday night into Saturday, mainly

across western areas like the North Woods and Central Highlands.

Little accumulation is expected. Ensembles are also keying in on

Tuesday for somewhat higher probabilities for snow showers as a

shortwave clips the area. Slightly below normal temperatures are

expected this weekend, moderating to near normal by early next

week.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

NEAR TERM: Expect VFR/MVFR conditions across the region through

early morning with light snow/snow showers north, light

rain/snow showers Downeast. MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR,

conditions then develop later tonight. A light wintry mix of

snow/sleet/freezing rain develops late tonight across northern

areas. Across Downeast areas, expect a chance of rain later

tonight with localized freezing rain also possible. Expect

IFR/LIFR conditions across northern areas Wednesday with a light

wintry mix gradually changing to rain through the afternoon.

Across Downeast areas, expect MVFR/IFR early Wednesday then

lowering to IFR/LIFR with rain. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots,

becoming south/southeast overnight. South/southeast winds 10 to

15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Wednesday.

Southwesterly low level wind shear develops regionwide Wednesday

afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Wednesday night...IFR/LIFR with fog and rain. -FZRA

possible early at far northern Aroostook airports. S wind 10 to

20 kt with higher gusts at near-coastal airports. LLWS likely,

becoming strong late.

Thursday...IFR with fog and rain, tapering to showers in the

afternoon. S wind 10 to 20 kts with higher gusts at near-coastal

airports, decreasing to 5 to 10 kts late. Strong LLWS early.

Thursday night...IFR with fog and showers early, becoming VFR.

Variable winds becoming WNW 10 to 20 kts late, strongest at

western airports such as GNR.

Friday...VFR with strong WNW winds 15 to 30 kts with gusts to

45 kts. The strongest winds and earlier arrival of stronger

winds will be across western airports in the forecast area such

as GNR and BGR. Eastern airports will see winds increase during

the afternoon.

Friday night VFR. Patchy MVFR ceilings are possible at

northern airports. W winds 10 to 20 kts with gusts to 30 kts.

Saturday...VFR south, with MVFR/VFR north. W winds 10-15 kts.

Sunday...VFR. NW winds 5-15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the

waters through 4 AM. Seas appear to stay elevated above

advisory criteria through Wednesday and the upcoming gale event

Wednesday night. Will leave the SCA in place for now, but will

be inclined to go with a single gale headline once winds subside

later tonight.

SHORT TERM: Gale force winds are likely Wednesday night through

Thursday with onshore/south winds, followed by another period

of offshore/northwest gales Friday to Friday night. In between,

seas will remain elevated, especially over the offshore waters

where wave heights in excess of 8 feet are expected. Rain and

patchy fog will reduce visibility on Thursday. Small Craft

Advisory level winds and seas are then expected to continue

through most of the weekend into next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Models are in strong agreement for a significant rain and

snowmelt event Wednesday through Thursday evening. General

model consensus showing higher probability of 1 to 2 inches of

rain falling onto a snowpack that is ripening in portions of

Downeast Maine into the southern Central Highlands. Latest

analysis from NOHRSC combined with surface observations shows a

snowpack of 4-10 inches with generally 0.75 to 2 inches of SWE

within that pack for Downeast Maine. Across the Central

Highlands the pack ranges from 7-14 inches with 2 to 4 inches of

SWE within the pack. Across northern Maine including the

Moosehead Region, the pack ranges from 10-25 inches with

isolated higher amounts up to 30-35 inches. The SWE values

across Northern Maine are generally 3 to 5 inches with isolated

higher amounts up to 8 inches.

NOHRSC analysis shows the snowpack temperature across Northern

Maine and the Central Highlands is quite cold and very unlikely

to melt much.  It will absorb any rainfall and compact.

Across interior and coastal Downeast Maine including the Bangor

region the snowpack is near ripe or ripe with snowpack density

values around 0.3. A ripe snowpack will discharge when rainfall

falls into the pack especially combined with prolonged T+Td

>32F and gusty warm winds, which are all expected. The ground is

completely frozen in these areas, and in some places 2 ft deep,

so no ground absorption will occur with this event. The

potential exists to completely discharge 0.75 to 2 inches of SWE

with total snowpack loss combining with the falling rainfall

creating significant runoff. Many of the rivers have solid ice

conditions with ice thickness varying between a few inches to a

foot or more.

Thermal/mechanical breakup of the ice is very possible in

Downeast areas resulting in the potential for ice jams. This is

supported by combined T/Td thawing degree hours reaching 700 to

1000 during the warm up. These values are well associated with

ice movement and potential for ice jams historically.

Across much of the Central Highlands and northern Maine there

is little or no threat of ice movement with this event. This is

also supported by combined T/Td thawing degree hours below

threshold commonly associated with ice break up. Southern

portions of the Piscataquis River may also see ice movement if

warmer and higher precipitation scenarios occur.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for

     MEZ001-002.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Wednesday for

     MEZ003>006-010-011-031-032.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ050>052.

     Gale Warning from 10 PM Wednesday to 3 PM EST Thursday for

     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Norcross/MCW

Short Term...MStrauser

Long Term...MStrauser

Aviation...Norcross/MStrauser

Marine...Norcross/MCW/MStrauser

Hydrology...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1012 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

MEZ003>006-010-011-031-032-051000-

/O.CON.KCAR.WW.Y.0008.250305T0900Z-250305T1800Z/

Northern Somerset-Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-

Southeast Aroostook-Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-

Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-

Including the cities of Churchill Dam, Sherman, Vanceboro,

Blanchard, Medway, Smyrna Mills, Mount Katahdin, Chamberlain

Lake, Baxter St Park, Baker Lake, Lincoln, Milo, Millinocket,

Howland, Guilford, Springfield, Greenville, Patten, Monson,

Topsfield, Billy-Jack Depot, Houlton, Dover-Foxcroft, Danforth,

East Millinocket, and Hodgdon

1012 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST

WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations up

  to one inch and ice accumulations around a light glaze.

* WHERE...Portions of Central Highlands, Far Eastern, North Woods,

  and Penobscot Valley Maine

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 1 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous

  conditions will impact the Wednesday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or

freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads

and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for Maine can be obtained by going to

newengland511.org.

&&

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Caribou ME

225 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

MEZ015>017-029-030-051930-

Southern Penobscot-Interior Hancock-Central Washington-

Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-

225 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Coastal DownEast Maine,

Interior DownEast Maine and Penobscot Valley Maine.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A brief wintry mix will develop Wednesday morning potentially

leading to slippery travel conditions until temperatures warm above

freezing and precipitation changes to plain rain.

A significant rain on snow event is expected from Wednesday

afternoon through Friday morning. Excessive runoff due to rainfall

and snowmelt along with warm temperatures may lead to localized

flooding and ice jams.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather

conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

$$