Early December Storm

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1045 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2024

ANZ050>052-111100-

/O.CON.KCAR.SR.W.0005.241212T0000Z-241212T1200Z/

Coastal Waters from Eastport, ME to Schoodic Point, ME out 25 NM-

Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point, ME to Stonington, ME out

25 NM-

Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point, ME to Stonington, ME-

1045 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2024

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM

EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 35 to 45 kt with gusts up to 60 kt and seas

  16 to 21 ft expected, except 9 to 13 ft on the intra coastal.

* WHERE...Coastal Waters from Eastport, ME to Schoodic Point, ME

  out 25 NM, Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point, ME to

  Stonington, ME out 25 NM and Intra Coastal Waters from

  Schoodic Point, ME to Stonington, ME.

* WHEN...From 7 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Storm force winds and hazardous seas will capsize or

  damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the

vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Gray ME

336 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2024

ANZ150>154-111045-

/O.UPG.KGYX.SR.A.0006.241211T2100Z-241212T1200Z/

/O.NEW.KGYX.SR.W.0006.241211T2100Z-241212T1200Z/

Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM-

Penobscot Bay-

Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out

25 NM-Casco Bay-

Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out

25 NM-

336 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2024

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST

THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 55 kt and seas

  17 to 22 ft expected.

* WHERE...Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME

  out 25 NM, Penobscot Bay, Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME

  to Cape Elizabeth, ME out 25 NM, Casco Bay and Coastal Waters

  from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out 25 NM.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Storm force winds and hazardous seas will capsize or

  damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the

vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Caribou ME

935 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2024

MEZ005-006-011-015>017-029>032-120245-

Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-Central Penobscot-

Southern Penobscot-Interior Hancock-Central Washington-

Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-Southern Piscataquis-

Northern Washington-

935 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST

WEDNESDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

THURSDAY MORNING...

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST

THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine,

Coastal DownEast Maine, Far Eastern Maine, Interior DownEast Maine

and Penobscot Valley Maine.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the

Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the

Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

   High Wind Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather

conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

$$

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

905 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2024

MEZ006-011-031-032-111100-

/O.EXT.KCAR.HW.W.0005.241212T0000Z-241212T1100Z/

Southeast Aroostook-Central Penobscot-Southern Piscataquis-

Northern Washington-

Including the cities of Houlton, Sherman, Howland, Milo, Lincoln,

Guilford, Dover-Foxcroft, Danforth, Topsfield, Smyrna Mills,

Vanceboro, Hodgdon, and Springfield

905 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST

THURSDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected.

* WHERE...Southern Piscataquis, Northern Washington, Southeast

  Aroostook, and Central Penobscot Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM Wednesday to 6 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.

  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult,

  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and

avoid windows. Watch for falling debris and tree limbs. Use caution

if you must drive.

&&

$$

487

FXUS61 KCAR 110200

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

900 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Intensifying low pressure will approach Wednesday, track to our

west Wednesday night, then lift north across Eastern Canada

Thursday. High pressure will follow Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

9 PM Update: Very little showing up on radar, but a few reports

of very light snow and freezing drizzle north and freezing

drizzle in Bangor and Downeast. Have extended the winter weather

advisory for coastal Hancock and coastal Washington Counties

until 4 AM EST Wednesday morning as many areas just inland from

the immediate shoreline are still at or a little below freezing.

After midnight, the precipitation will likely begin to slowly

fill back in across the CWA, but it looks like it will be on the

light side into Wednesday morning. Have made some adjustments

to the flood watch to start it Wednesday afternoon and not first

thing in the morning. Otherwise, only minor changes are

planned.

Previous discussion:

The developing low pressure system will track across New

England tonight. The main concern tonight will be the warmer S

flow bringing the warm airmass into the region. CAD on the

downslope of the higher terrain will keep cooler air at the

surface. This coupled with the very moist column and approaching

frontal precip, freezing rain/drizzle will become a hazard.

Freezing drizzle will continue in the south this evening and

early tonight, then progress north through the night. This is

when the CAD will come into play and keep the freezing

rain/drizzle around through early Wednesday morning. Localized

ice accumulations of up to a tenth of an inch are possible. Thus

making the Wednesday morning commute dangerous.

By Wednesday, the warm front from the low will move into the

region. High res models differ slightly on the timing of the

warm front passage, however, all areas will warm above freezing

switching all precip to rain by the morning. The main concern

will be the continuous rainfall throughout the day. In addition,

the warm temps and rain will melt the majority of the snowpack,

causing additional runoff over frozen ground into small streams

and urban areas. Due to the rivers running low, the concern for

river flooding is low.

By Wednesday night, The warm front will lift north of the area

as the center of the low tracks W of the region. The concern for

this time period will be the LLJ causing high winds and the

passage of the cold front causing increasing rainfall rates. The

winds will quickly increase after sunset with the S flow ramping

up around midnight. The intensification of the low will cause

winds to increase along the front, allowing winds to increase

especially along the east border. Significant power outages are

expected. With the S flow increasing and more moisture moving in

with the front, higher terrain and downsloping areas will see an

increase in rainfall amounts and rates. Flooding is expected in

low lying areas, small streams, and urban areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

As the previous low pressure system continues to exit into the

Canadian Maritimes, precip will quickly taper off across the

forecast area, though a few lingering snow showers are possible

into early Thursday afternoon. The pressure gradient aloft will

be slower to relax, as the next high pressure begins to slowly

approach from the west. This will leave winds breezy through the

day on Thursday, though gusts will be much lower than what was

seen previously with gusts only reaching up to around 20 to 25

mph during the day. Behind the low, colder air will begin to

move into the area, but with southwest winds, temperatures will

be slow to fall through the day, with near steady temperatures

in the upper 30s possible until late Thursday afternoon.

For Thursday night, skies will begin to clear, however light

winds are expected to continue through the night, so surface

decoupling is unlikely, but cooler air in the region will allow

for temperatures to fall into the teens to lower 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A ridge of high pressure should last through the weekend,

leading to lower chances for precipitation and light winds.

Winds could become calm by Saturday night, which when coupled

with the chance for clear skies, could lead to radiational

cooling that may lead to temperatures quickly dropping into the

lower single digits across the north. Downeast areas may fall

into the lower teens during this time. If skies are completely

clear and winds go completely calm, this could be a more

widespread event with temperatures falling even closer to, or

just below zero in the North Woods.

The next low pressure system may approach from the west Monday

night into Tuesday, which could bring another round of snow and

rain to the forecast area. That said, there is great model

disagreement for this time period, with the GFS being most

aggressive bringing in accumulating precip, while the Euro

holds onto the idea of a lingering high pressure overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR tonight and Wednesday. Any MVFR ceilings at

the northern terminals from KCAR north will lower this evening.

Freezing drizzle is expected on and off at the terminals

tonight which may develop into a light freezing rain at the

northern terminals late tonight. The freezing drizzle will

likely change to drizzle/light rain at KBHB later tonight.

Light freezing rain will change to rain from south to north

Wednesday from KBGR north with the rain becoming heavy at times

in the afternoon. SE wind 5 to 10 knots increasing late in the

day Wednesday. LLWS developing Wednesday and becoming stronger

with time as conditions deteriorate.

SHORT TERM:

Thurs - Fri: Improving to VFR across all terminals, though some

brief MVFR possible early Thurs in lingering -SHSN. SW winds 10

to 15 kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts. Gusts will slowly decrease

into Fri.

Sat - Sun: VFR across all terminals. W winds around 5 kts

becoming light and variable Sat night, then turning S on Sun at

5 to 10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM: The wind will increase over the waters on Wednesday

and drastically increase Wednesday night. A Storm Warning has

been issued for all waters through all of Wednesday night. Seas

building 13-19 ft on the coastal waters.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will gradually decrease through the

end of the week, with gales likely lingering through Thursday

evening, followed by SCA level winds into the day on Friday.

Seas 14 to 19 ft on the coastal waters and 8 to 11 ft on the

intracoastal waters with a long period SW swell will gradually

decrease as well, falling to 3 to 5 ft by Friday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for MEZ001-

     002.

     Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning

     for MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.

     High Wind Warning from 7 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for

     MEZ002-005-006-011-015>017-029>032.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for

     MEZ003>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.

MARINE...Storm Warning from 7 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for

     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/LaFlash

Short Term...AStrauser

Long Term...AStrauser

Aviation...CB/LaFlash/AStrauser

Marine...CB/LaFlash/AStrauser

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

851 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2024

MEZ003>006-010-011-015>017-031-032-110900-

/O.CON.KCAR.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-241211T0900Z/

Northern Somerset-Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-

Southeast Aroostook-Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-

Southern Penobscot-Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Southern

Piscataquis-Northern Washington-

Including the cities of Smyrna Mills, East Millinocket, Calais,

Houlton, Topsfield, Greenville, Wesley, Baker Lake, Princeton,

Brewer, Vanceboro, Hodgdon, Dedham, Eastbrook, Grand Lake Stream,

Millinocket, Amherst, Patten, Blanchard, Dover-Foxcroft, Lincoln,

Churchill Dam, Guilford, Springfield, Monson, Mount Katahdin,

Milo, Billy-Jack Depot, Danforth, Old Town, Great Pond, Bangor,

Howland, Baxter St Park, Aurora, Medway, Chamberlain Lake, Orono,

and Sherman

851 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST

WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Light freezing rain and freezing drizzle. Additional ice

  accumulations around one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of Central Highlands, Far Eastern, Interior

  DownEast, North Woods, and Penobscot Valley Maine

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain will

cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads. Slow down and use

caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for Maine can be obtained by going to

newengland511.org.

&&

$$

CB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

851 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2024

MEZ003>006-010-011-015>017-031-032-110900-

/O.CON.KCAR.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-241211T0900Z/

Northern Somerset-Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-

Southeast Aroostook-Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-

Southern Penobscot-Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Southern

Piscataquis-Northern Washington-

Including the cities of Smyrna Mills, East Millinocket, Calais,

Houlton, Topsfield, Greenville, Wesley, Baker Lake, Princeton,

Brewer, Vanceboro, Hodgdon, Dedham, Eastbrook, Grand Lake Stream,

Millinocket, Amherst, Patten, Blanchard, Dover-Foxcroft, Lincoln,

Churchill Dam, Guilford, Springfield, Monson, Mount Katahdin,

Milo, Billy-Jack Depot, Danforth, Old Town, Great Pond, Bangor,

Howland, Baxter St Park, Aurora, Medway, Chamberlain Lake, Orono,

and Sherman

851 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST

WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Light freezing rain and freezing drizzle. Additional ice

  accumulations around one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of Central Highlands, Far Eastern, Interior

  DownEast, North Woods, and Penobscot Valley Maine

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain will

cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads. Slow down and use

caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for Maine can be obtained by going to

newengland511.org.

&&

$$

CB

Flood Watch

National Weather Service Caribou ME

845 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2024

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-111130-

/O.EXT.KCAR.FA.A.0006.241211T1700Z-241212T1500Z/

/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-

Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-

Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-Interior

Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-

Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-

Including the cities of Smyrna Mills, Ellsworth, East

Millinocket, Calais, Houlton, Orland, Topsfield, Greenville,

Caribou, Wesley, Baker Lake, Princeton, Brewer, Bar Harbor,

Eastport, Perry, Cherryfield, Vanceboro, Clayton Lake, Hodgdon,

Dedham, Eastbrook, Ashland, Grand Lake Stream, Bucksport,

Millinocket, Amherst, Patten, Blanchard, Dover-Foxcroft, Lincoln,

Churchill Dam, Fort Kent, Presque Isle, Guilford, Springfield,

Monson, Mount Katahdin, Machias, Milo, Allagash, Billy-Jack

Depot, Danforth, Madawaska, Old Town, Mars Hill, Castine, Great

Pond, Van Buren, Howland, Baxter St Park, Bangor, Aurora, Medway,

Chamberlain Lake, Orono, Sherman, and Frenchville

845 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2024

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt continues to be

  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of Central Highlands, Coastal DownEast, Far

  Eastern, Far Northern, Interior DownEast, North Woods, and

  Penobscot Valley Maine, including the following areas, in Central

  Highlands Maine, Central Piscataquis, Northern Penobscot and

  Southern Piscataquis. In Coastal DownEast Maine, Coastal Hancock

  and Coastal Washington. In Far Eastern Maine, Northern Washington

  and Southeast Aroostook. In Far Northern Maine, Northeast

  Aroostook and Northwest Aroostook. In Interior DownEast Maine,

  Central Washington and Interior Hancock. In North Woods Maine,

  Northern Piscataquis and Northern Somerset. In Penobscot Valley

  Maine, Central Penobscot and Southern Penobscot.

* WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,

  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

  Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

  - A storm system from the south will bring widespread soaking

    rain to the region for Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday

    night. Warm temperatures will melt snowpack and causing

    localize flooding in small stream and urban areas. Rainfall

    amounts of 1.5 to 2.5 inches are expected, but locally higher

    amounts of 3 to 4 inches are possible in more persistent

    bands of heavier rain.

  - For flood safety visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood

Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared

to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

CB

10:27 PM AST Tuesday 10 December 2024

Freezing Rain Warning in effect for:

Fredericton and Southern York County

Freezing rain is expected or occurring.

Locations: western and central New Brunswick.

Freezing rain duration: 4 to 6 hours.

Time span: overnight tonight into Wednesday morning.

Remarks: There is some uncertainty in the duration and intensity of the freezing rain. Initially it may fall as ice pellets or freezing drizzle for a period, followed by freezing rain before transitioning to rain on Wednesday.

A band of freezing drizzle over southeast New Brunswick may continue into the overnight hours before warming up tomorrow morning.

Surfaces such as highways, roads, walkways and parking lots may become icy and slippery.

Slow down driving in slippery conditions. Watch for taillights ahead and maintain a safe following distance.

Freezing rain warnings are issued when rain falling in sub-zero temperatures creates ice build-up and icy surfaces.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

9:43 PM AST Tuesday 10 December 2024

Rainfall Warning in effect for:

Fredericton and Southern York County

Rain, heavy at times is expected.

Locations: western New Brunswick and the Fundy Coast.

Total rainfall: 25 to 40 mm, with locally higher amounts possible.

Time span: Wednesday morning until Thursday morning. 

Remarks: An intense low pressure system will track west of New Brunswick Wednesday night and Thursday morning. This system will give periods of rain, at times heavy.  Strong southerly winds gusting to 80 km/h will accompany this system, with gusts up to 90 km/h over the Fundy Coast.

Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads.

If visibility is reduced while driving, slow down, watch for tail lights ahead and be prepared to stop.

Rainfall warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

9:42 PM AST Tuesday 10 December 2024

Wind Warning in effect for:

Acadian Peninsula

Strong winds that may cause damage are expected or occurring.

Maximum gusts: 90 km/h.

Locations: Fundy Coast of New Brunswick and Acadian Peninsula.

Time span: overnight Wednesday until Thursday morning.

Loose objects may be tossed by the wind and cause injury or damage. High winds may result in power outages and fallen tree branches.

Wind warnings are issued when there is a significant risk of damaging winds.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

9:42 PM AST Tuesday 10 December 2024

Wind Warning in effect for:

Saint John and County

Strong winds that may cause damage are expected or occurring.

Maximum gusts: 90 km/h.

Locations: Fundy Coast of New Brunswick and Acadian Peninsula.

Time span: overnight Wednesday until Thursday morning.

Loose objects may be tossed by the wind and cause injury or damage. High winds may result in power outages and fallen tree branches.

Wind warnings are issued when there is a significant risk of damaging winds.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

7:02 PM AST Tuesday 10 December 2024

Special Weather Statement in effect for:

Campbellton and eastern half of Restigouche County

Rain at times heavy and strong southerly winds are expected Wednesday into Thursday.

Total rainfall: In excess of 25 mm possible.

Maximum wind gusts: southerly 70 to 80 km/h except higher gusts over coastal and exposed locations.

Time span: Wednesday morning until Thursday morning.

Remarks: An intense low pressure system will track west of New Brunswick Wednesday night and Thursday morning. This system will give periods of heavy rain and strong southerly winds on Wednesday night, ending on Thursday morning.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.