Tuesday, August 13, 2024

Tropical Storm Ernesto Moves Through The Virgin Islands

















































232 FXUS61 KCAR 140115 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 915 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A series of surface trofs will move across the region through Saturday. Low pressure will begin to approach Sunday..... ....LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The upper level low is forecast to move to the southeast Friday night into Saturday, giving way to high pressure and dry conditions. Return flow ahead of an upper level trough over the Great Lakes will begin Saturday afternoon, resulting in increasing chances for showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm during the late afternoon and evening, particularly across the higher terrain of the North Woods and Central Highlands. The upper level trough will slowly move towards the area through the rest of the weekend and into early next week, maintaining shower chances, mainly during the day. The GFS is much slower with the progression of the trough and even shows a cutoff low attempting to form over the Eastern Great Lakes. This results in Ernesto moving closer to the area and impacting Nova Scotia. However, other guidance shows a less amplified upper trough, steering Ernesto further out to sea. In any case, with troughing over the area from late weekend into early next week, shower chances will continue, mainly during the day with daytime heating. Temperatures will remain seasonable this weekend into early next week. Long period swell from distant Tropical Storm Ernesto, which is forecast to become a hurricane as it moves northward from Puerto Rico towards Bermuda, will reach the area Friday night into Saturday. The swell will continue to build, peaking Sunday night into Monday. High surf and rip currents are possible along the coast, particularly later this weekend and Monday...... 566 WTNT35 KNHC 140245 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 ...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT PASSES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 65.3W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NW OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico * Vieques and Culebra A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case through tonight. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Ernesto. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 65.3 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and north with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected on Wednesday night and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass to the northeast and north of Puerto Rico through early Wednesday. Ernesto should then move over the western Atlantic later in the week and approach Bermuda on Friday and Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane by early Wednesday to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. Henry E. Rohlsen Airport in St. Croix recently reported a sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a gust of 58 mph (93 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the U.S and British Virgin Islands. Rainfall totals of 6 to 8 inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, are expected across southeastern Puerto Rico, with totals of 2 to 4 inches across northwestern Puerto Rico. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Ernesto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra through the overnight hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of the watch area during the next several hours. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix. A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. These swells will reach the Dominican Republic overnight, the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and Bermuda and the rest of the Bahamas on Thursday. Swells are expected to reach the east coast of the United States Thursday night and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart 733 WTNT45 KNHC 140247 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 Aircraft data, surface observations, and NWS radar images indicate Ernesto passed over the Virgin Islands around 00 UTC this evening. The tropical cyclone remains asymmetric, as NOAA Tail Doppler Radar data show the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall are generally confined to the northern and eastern semicircles of the storm. Data from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate the central pressure of Ernesto has fallen to around 998-999 mb, and an earlier aircraft pass through the eastern part of the storm found peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 60 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set at 55 kt, which matches the latest Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The latest aircraft fixes and radar data show Ernesto has turned northwestward (305/15 kt). Overnight, Ernesto will move away from the Virgin Islands and pass to the northeast and north of Puerto Rico. Then, Ernesto is expected to move northwestward to northward during the next couple of days toward a break in the subtropical ridge. By late week, the influence of a deep-layer trough over the western Atlantic should cause Ernesto to turn north-northeastward, although the cyclone is forecast to slow down a bit after the trough passes to its north. There are no notable changes to the NHC track forecast, with Ernesto forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda Friday night into Saturday. The radar structure of Ernesto indicates it has not yet solidified an inner core. However, once this occurs, the atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear conducive for significant strengthening over the next few days. Most of the hurricane regional models and statistical guidance show Ernesto becoming a major hurricane over the western Atlantic late this week, and the global models (particularly the GFS) show significant deepening of the low. Based on the latest guidance trends, the NHC intensity forecast has been raised slightly during the middle portion of the forecast period and now shows Ernesto becoming a major hurricane on Friday. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through early Wednesday, with hurricane conditions possible on the Virgin Islands, Culebra, and Vieques. 2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides over the Virgin Islands and into portions of Puerto Rico tonight through Wednesday. 3. Ernesto is likely to bring impacts to Bermuda late this week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. 4. Swells generated by Ernesto are expected to affect portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas during the next few days, and then reach the east coast of the United States and Bermuda late this week and into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 18.8N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 20.3N 66.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 22.4N 68.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 24.4N 68.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 26.3N 68.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 28.1N 67.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 29.9N 66.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 34.0N 64.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 38.0N 63.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart