Hurricane Debby Cat One Nears Landfall In NW Florida, Could Eventually Threaten Our Region - Heatwave Day Three - 08/03/2024 Data

000

WTNT34 KNHC 050255

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

Hurricane Debby Advisory Number  11

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042024

1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

...DEBBY BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEASTERN 

GULF COAST...

...WILL BRING A MAJOR FLOOD THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED

STATES THIS WEEK...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...28.6N 84.0W

ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA

ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Florida Gulf coast from

Suwannee River to Yankeetown.

The Tropical Storm Watch along the coast of South Carolina from the

Savannah River to South Santee River has been changed to a Tropical

Storm Warning.

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Boca Grande has been

discontinued.

The Storm Surge Watch south of Englewood has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Florida coast from the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian

Pass including Tampa Bay

* Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's

River to South Santee River South Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Florida coast from Englewood northward to the middle of

Longboat Key, including Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Florida coast from the Yankeetown to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Florida coast south of Yankeetown to Boca Grande

* Florida coast from west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach

* Ponte Vedre Beach to South Santee River South Carolina

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life

and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For

a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these

areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property

from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.

Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local

officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National

Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United

States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional

watches and warnings will likely be required tonight or Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Debby was located

near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 84.0 West. Debby is moving

toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A gradual decrease

in forward speed with a turn toward the northeast and east is

expected on Monday and Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center

will move across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and

reach the Florida Big Bend coast Monday morning.  Debby is

then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern

Georgia Monday and Tuesday, and be near the Georgia coast by  

Tuesday night.

Data from Air Force and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that 

maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) 

with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is likely before 

Debby reaches the Florida Big Bend coast on Monday.  Weakening is 

expected on Monday and Tuesday after Debby moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles

(220 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance 

aircraft data is 985 mb (29.09 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning

area by early Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning 

overnight. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread 

northward over the tropical storm warning area along the Florida 

Gulf coast through tonight, and begin along portions of the

tropical storm warning area along the Atlantic coast by late

Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of

South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area late 

Monday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause

normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters

moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if

the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Yankeetown, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...6-10 ft

Chassahowitzka, FL to Yankeetown, FL...4-6 ft

Ochlockonee River, FL to Indian Pass, FL...4-6 ft

Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...3-5 ft

Tampa Bay...3-5 ft

Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, SC...2-4 ft

Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,

please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,

available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Debby is expected to produce rainfall 

totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across 

portions of central and northern Florida and southeastern North 

Carolina through Friday morning.  This rainfall will likely result 

in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant 

river flooding expected. 

Across portions of southeast Georgia and South Carolina, 10 to 20 

inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected 

through Friday morning.  This potentially historic rainfall will 

likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding 

associated with Tropical Storm Debby, please see the National 

Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at 

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk 

graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.  For a list of 

rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see 

the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 

KWBC or at the following link:

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and northern

Florida and southern Georgia tonight and Monday.  The threat will

spread northeastward into coastal Georgia and parts of South

Carolina on Monday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the

Gulf coast of Florida through Monday.  Swells will begin to affect

the Southeast U.S. coast on Monday and continue through the middle

of the week. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening

surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your

local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.

Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$

Forecaster Brown

000

WTNT44 KNHC 050255

TCDAT4

Hurricane Debby Discussion Number  11

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042024

1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

NWS Doppler Radar imagery from both Tampa and Tallahassee along with

reports from both NOAA and Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft

indicate that Debby's structure has continued to improve this

evening with a ragged eye becoming apparent.  Both NOAA and Air

Force reconnaissance aircraft have found strong flight-level winds

in the convective band located well to the east-northeast of the

center, with the Air Force plane measuring 700-mb flight-level

winds in the 75-77 kt range.  Recent dropsonde data has shown that

the pressure has fallen to around 985 mb.  Based on these data,

Debby is being upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane at this time.

Although the inner core is still somewhat ragged, the storm's

structure has improved and additional strengthening appears likely

overnight and early Monday while Debby moves over waters of high

heat content in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and within a favorable

upper-level wind environment.  The NHC intensity forecast is again

at the high end of the intensity guidance.  Weakening is expected

while Debby moves inland over the southeastern United States.  Some

restrengthening is forecast when Debby moves over the western

Atlantic, but there is still higher-than-normal uncertainty in this

portion of the forecast.

There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy.  Debby

should continue to move generally northward overnight and early

Monday through a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by a

mid-level trough over the eastern United States. This motion is

expected to bring the center onshore along the coast of the

northeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. After that time, the trough

is forecast to move eastward causing the steering currents to

weaken over the southeastern United States. This will result in a

significant slowdown of Debby's forward motion, and the model

spread increases significantly in the 72-120 h time period.

Regardless of Debby's exact forecast track during that time, the

slow forward speed is likely to cause potentially historic rainfall

across southeast Georgia and South Carolina, with an increasing

likelihood of catastrophic flooding.

Key Messages:

1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and 

South Carolina through Friday morning will likely result in areas of 

catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will likely result in 

considerable flooding impacts from portions of central and northern 

Florida through the Coastal Plain of the Carolinas through Friday. 

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions

of the Gulf Coast of Florida, with 6 to 10 feet of inundation above

ground level expected somewhere between Ochlockonee River to

Yankeetown late tonight and Monday morning. Residents in the Storm

Surge Warning area should follow any advice given by local

officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected Monday along portions of the

Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect, with

tropical storm conditions beginning this evening. Tropical storm

conditions are expected through Monday farther south within the

Tropical Storm Warning area along Florida's west coast, including 

the Tampa Bay area.

4. Dangerous storm surge and wind impacts are expected along

portions of the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Florida to

North Carolina through the middle of the week, and storm surge

warnings and tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued

for portions of these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 28.6N  84.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

 12H  05/1200Z 29.8N  83.8W   75 KT  85 MPH

 24H  06/0000Z 30.8N  83.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND

 36H  06/1200Z 31.5N  82.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND

 48H  07/0000Z 31.6N  81.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER

 60H  07/1200Z 31.7N  80.1W   40 KT  45 MPH

 72H  08/0000Z 32.1N  79.8W   45 KT  50 MPH

 96H  09/0000Z 33.0N  79.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND

120H  10/0000Z 34.7N  79.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

$$

Forecaster Brown

Heatwave Day Three - 08/03/2024

New Brunswick

Bathurst Airport

Max: 32.5°C

Min: 19.0°C

Nova Scotia

Ingonish Beach

Max: 33.0°C

Min: 15.2°C

Maine

Corinna

Max: 91°C/32.8°F

Min: 71°F/21.7°C

Dover-Foxcroft

Max: 91°C/32.8°F

Min: 70°F/21.1°C

Van Buren 2

Max: 90°F/32.2°C

Min: 64°F/17.8°C

Durham

Max: 93°F/33.9°C

Min: 68°F/20.0°C

Moosehead

Max: 90°F/32.2°C

Min: 60°F/15.5°C

Turner

Max: 91°F/32.8°C

Min: 70°F/21.1°C

Winthrop

Max: 91°F/32.8°C

Min: 71°F/21.7°C

Weather summary

for New Brunswick

issued by Environment Canada

at 6:50 a.m. ADT Sunday 4 August 2024.

Discussion.

The following area set a daily maximum temperature record on August 

3, 2024 (temperature values given in degrees Celsius): 

MISCOU ISLAND AREA (Miscou Island (AUT)) 

New record of 29.9 

Old record of 28.5 set in 2004 

Records in this area have been kept since 1957 

Note: the temperature record reported here has been derived from a 

selection of historical stations in this geographic area that were 

active during the period of record.

Please note that this summary may contain preliminary or unofficial 

information and does not constitute a complete or final report.

End/ASPC

Weather summary

for Nova Scotia

issued by Environment Canada

at 6:57 a.m. ADT Sunday 4 August 2024.

Discussion.

The following areas set a daily maximum temperature record on August 

3, 2024 (temperature values given in degrees Celsius): 

ANTIGONISH AREA (Tracadie) 

New record of 31.0 

Old record of 30.6 set in 2004 

Records in this area have been kept since 1910 

INGONISH AREA (Ingonish Beach RCS) 

New record of 33.0 

Old record of 31.7 set in 1958 

Records in this area have been kept since 1950 

PORT HAWKESBURY AREA (Port Hawkesbury) 

New record of 31.3 

Old record of 30.1 set in 2007 

Records in this area have been kept since 1960 

Note: the temperature records reported here have been derived from a 

selection of historical stations in each geographic area that were 

active during the period of record.

Please note that this summary may contain preliminary or unofficial 

information and does not constitute a complete or final report.

End/ASPC

Weather summary

for Prince Edward Island

issued by Environment Canada

at 6:55 a.m. ADT Sunday 4 August 2024.

Discussion.

The following area set a daily maximum temperature record on August 

3, 2024 (temperature values given in degrees Celsius): 

ST. PETERS BAY AREA (St. Peters) 

New record of 30.8 

Old record of 29.9 set in 2007 

Records in this area have been kept since 1960 

Note: the temperature record reported here has been derived from a 

selection of historical stations in this geographic area that were 

active during the period of record.

Please note that this summary may contain preliminary or unofficial 

information and does not constitute a complete or final report.

End/ASPC