Debby Now A Tropical Depression Finally Heads Northward
723
WTNT34 KWNH 090242
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Debby Advisory Number 27
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL042024
1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN VIRGINIA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 80.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM NNE OF CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM WNW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
Flood Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of....
* South Carolina
* North Carolina
* Virginia
* Eastern West Virginia
* Maryland
* Pennsylvania
A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of...
* Upstate New York
* Northern Vermont
* Northern New Hampshire
A Tornado Watch is in effect for portions of...
* Eastern North Carolina
* Northern and Eastern Virginia
* Maryland
* District of Columbia
* Eastern West Virginia
Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect for portions of...
* Eastern North Carolina
* Areas surrounding the Chesapeake Bay and Potomac River
* Central New Jersey Coast
A Gale Watch is in effect the coastal waters of...
* Rhode Island
* Southeastern Massachusetts up through Cape Cod
Wind Advisories are in effect for portions of...
* Western Virginia
* Eastern Maryland
* Delaware
* Eastern Pennsylvania
* New Jersey
* Southern New York
* Southern Connecticut
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Debby
was located near latitude 36.2 North, longitude 80.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 26 mph (43
km/h) and this motion is expected to slowly increase and shift to
the northeast over the next day.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches
of rainfall with locally higher amounts, across portions of
southeastern North Carolina leading to maximum storm total amounts
as high as 15 inches. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over
portions of eastern South Carolina will bring maximum storm total
amounts as high as 20 to 25 inches. Considerable flooding is
expected across portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast
North Carolina through Friday.
From central North Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3
to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through
Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable to
locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding, especially in the
terrain of western Virginia, with river flooding also possible.
From portions of Maryland north through Upstate New York and
Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected
through Friday night. This will likely result in areas of
considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding.
For the remainder of northern New England, 1 to 3 inches, with
local amounts to 4 inches, are expected into Saturday. Scattered
instances of flash flooding are possible.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur tonight from eastern North
Carolina into Virginia and Maryland. The threat for tornadoes will
shift northward into parts of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania and
southeast New York on Friday.
SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast and the
Mid Atlantic coast for another day or so. These conditions are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Pereira/Gallina/Chenard
253
FXUS61 KCAR 090153
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
953 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift northeast over the area on Friday with
the remnants of Debby tracking northeast into Quebec by Saturday
as a cold front swings through the state. A secondary cold
front crosses the area Sunday night into Monday. Another cold
front crosses the area Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
630 pm update...Increased PoPs this evening as light rain is
falling out of mid clouds in western portions of the forecast
area. Also increased cloud cover through Friday morning. Low
temp forecast still looks reasonable with the greater cloud
cover.
Previous discussion...
Sfc high has built into Atlantic Canada this afternoon with moisture
advection beginning over New England. As hipres builds east this
evening, expect dwpts to start climbing with pw values beginning to
increase after 00z. Given clouds moving in fairly quickly after
midnight have boosted temps up by several degrees.
H8 warm front will be lifting thru the region during the overnight
hours with scattered showers entering the Central Highlands toward
daybreak, which is a good 3-6 hrs faster than prior fcst. Have
brought categorical pops from Central Highlands into sern Aroostook
by 12z and lifting north into nrn Aroostook by 18z, leaving
scattered showers behind late afternoon/early evening.
Elevated instability expected to move in beginning 15z Friday with
temps cooling aloft. This likely to coincide with 850 front moving
north into the area with isold storms along and behind it in the
afternoon and continuing after 00z Saturday.
With pw values climbing to well above the 90th percentile tomorrow
afternoon and forcing with the warm front, coupled with LLJ
increasing to between 30-40 kts late in the afternoon, cannot rule
out locally heavy rainfall. The most likely area for this looks to
be in the North Woods during the day tomorrow. QPF amounts during
the day likely to be right around an inch along the NW Aroostook and
Quebec border with locations north of Baxter SP over to the NB
border expecting between 0.5-0.75 inches.
As the H8 front lifts north into Canada tomorrow, there will likely
be a break over central and southern areas, before remnants of Debby
move up from the southwest scraping along the international border.
Max temps will be well below normal with locations struggling to
crack into the middle 60s acrs the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Faster trend in models for remnants of Debby continues into
Friday night and Saturday, and adjusted forecast accordingly.
Center of Debby likely to pass just north of us late Friday
night. Our area will be under the warm sector Friday night, with
the cold front south of the center of remnants of Debby passing
through from west to east around midday Saturday with rapid
drying behind it.
Friday early evening, a bit of a lull in the heavier rain
should continue from late Friday afternoon, in between the warm
front passage and the increasing moisture ahead of the
approaching cold front. Adjusted PoPs accordingly. Temperatures
will be mild and rising through the night as the warmer,
juicier, very high precipitable water air continues to move in
from the south. Later in the night, band of moderate to locally
rain with perhaps a few embedded storms moves through from west
to east. Many areas will see a bit of a lull in between the two
rounds of rain, and the rain Friday night doesn`t look terribly
heavy either, so expecting any flooding that does occur to be
minor and limited to smaller streams. Not expecting any severe
storms later Friday night, though any heavier pockets of rain or
isolated storms could help mix down some stronger winds.
Speaking of winds, they are a bit of a concern especially later
Friday night into Saturday morning. A strong low level southerly
jet (by August standards) moves over the area. The strongest
winds aloft may actually be over Northern Maine closer to the
center of Debby passing just to our north. Not expecting the
full force of the winds aloft to mix down, but should be enough
wind gusts of 35-40 mph to perhaps lead to isolated power
outages, especially considering wet soils and leaves on the
trees which makes tree damage easier to occur. Tentatively
expecting the stronger wind in the far north as well as along
the coast, but isolated power outages are possible anywhere.
Rain rapidly tapers off from west to east Saturday behind the
cold front. Could see a few storms fire Saturday afternoon over
Eastern Maine especially toward the NB border just ahead of the
front, but not too big of a deal.
Saturday night and Sunday looking generally dry with just a
small chance of Sunday afternoon mainly North Woods.
Temperatures close to average Sunday afternoon with drier air
behind the cold front.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper level trough moves through Monday, with could bring a
better shot at showers and storms in the afternoon, especially
over the north. With cold air aloft, setup could be favorable
for small hail. Instability is pretty marginal though, so not
expecting severe storms.
Fairly quiet weather pattern Tuesday through Thursday with fairly
light NW flow. Models are in good agreement on the overall
pattern though there is uncertainty in timing of any potential
subtle shortwaves in the broad NW flow. Just enough instability
and moisture for a few afternoon showers and perhaps storms each
day, though Monday looks like the more active day thanks to a
better defined trough passage that day.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler than average Monday, but then
rebound to a bit warmer than average Tuesday to Thursday.
Dewpoints should be in the mid 50s to low 60s Monday through
Thursday, lowest in the north, which is about average for this
time of year......
10:30 PM ADT Thursday 8 August 2024
Heavy rainfall is possible.
Total rainfall: 30 to 40 mm. Locally higher amounts possible.
Locations: New Brunswick, except for eastern areas.
Time span: Friday morning until late Saturday.
Remarks: areas of heavy rain associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Debby will affect parts of New Brunswick Friday into Saturday. Embedded thundershowers are also possible that could enhance rainfall amounts in some areas.
Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.
In effect for:
Fredericton and Southern York County
000
WTNT34 KNHC 082031
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Debby Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND
WESTERN VIRGINIA...
...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.1N 80.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WSW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Debby
was located inland near latitude 35.1 North, longitude 80.2 West.
The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h). A faster northward or north-northeastward motion is
expected during the next day or two.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days, but Debby is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on
Friday.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.
WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm-force could occur for a few more
hours along portions of the North Carolina coast.
STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is possible in the Cape Fear, Neuse,
and Pamlico Rivers...1 to 3 ft.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches
of rainfall with locally higher amounts, across portions of
southeastern North Carolina leading to maximum storm total amounts
as high as 15 inches. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over
portions of eastern South Carolina will bring maximum storm total
amounts as high as 20 to 25 inches. Considerable flooding is
expected across portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast
North Carolina through Friday.
From central North Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3
to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through
Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable to
locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding, especially in the
terrain of western Virginia, with river flooding also possible.
From portions of Maryland north through Upstate New York and
Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected
through Friday night. This will likely result in areas of
considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding.
For the remainder of northern New England, 1 to 3 inches, with
local amounts to 4 inches, are expected into Saturday. Scattered
instances of flash flooding are possible.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur through tonight from central
and eastern North Carolina into central and southeast Virginia.
The threat for tornadoes will shift northward into parts of New
Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania on Friday.
SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S.
coast for another day or so. These conditions are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Debby. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 1100 PM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO
header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php
.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
000
WTNT44 KNHC 082032
TCDAT4
Tropical Depression Debby Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024
Debby continues to move farther inland and the center is now
located over south-central North Carolina. The storm continues to
produce heavy rains across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia,
with the major flood threat continuing in those areas. Surface
observations indicate that winds along the North Carolina coast and
offshore have decreased, and based on that data, the initial
intensity is lowered to 30 kt, making Debby a tropical depression.
Although the sustained winds have decreased, there could still be
some gusts to tropical-storm-force along portions of the North
Carolina coast for a few more hours.
The system is moving north-northwestward at 9 kt. A turn to the
north or north-northeast and a significant increase in forward
speed are expected. This motion will take Debby, or its
remnants, across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States during the
next day or so. Debby is likely to complete extratropical
transition tonight or on Friday and dissipate in a couple of days.
This is the last tropical cyclone discussion issued by the
National Hurricane Center on Debby. Future information on
this system can be found in discussions issued by the Weather
Prediction Center beginning at 1100 PM EDT, under AWIPS header
TCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KWNH, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov.
Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas is expected to
persist through today along with areas of considerable flooding.
Heavy rainfall will also result in considerable to locally
catastrophic flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic
States and Northeast through Saturday morning.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 35.1N 80.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 09/0600Z 37.1N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/1800Z 41.2N 76.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 10/0600Z 45.7N 71.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 10/1800Z 48.9N 62.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Caribou ME
252 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024
MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-091900-
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-
Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-
Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-
Coastal Washington-Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-
252 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine,
Coastal DownEast Maine, Far Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine,
Interior DownEast Maine, North Woods Maine and Penobscot Valley
Maine.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
Friday into Saturday morning, a frontal system combined with deep
tropical moisture associated with the remnants of Debby will bring
heavy rainfall and the risk of minor flooding to the area. Winds
gusting as high as 35 to 40 mph could lead to isolated power outages.
Along the coast, high surf is possible Saturday.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.
$$
posted by Advackia at 8:26 PM
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