Winter Storm Jett

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

926 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

MEZ001>006-010-161030-

/O.CON.KCAR.WS.W.0003.250216T1400Z-250217T1800Z/

Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-

Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-

Central Piscataquis-

Including the cities of Caribou, Blanchard, Billy-Jack Depot,

Ashland, Houlton, Baxter St Park, Chamberlain Lake, Allagash,

Medway, Hodgdon, Monson, Madawaska, Frenchville, Churchill Dam,

Smyrna Mills, Clayton Lake, Van Buren, Presque Isle, Mars Hill,

East Millinocket, Mount Katahdin, Greenville, Fort Kent, Sherman,

Baker Lake, Patten, and Millinocket

926 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM

EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 12

  and 20 inches. The greatest accumulations across northern and

  northwest Aroostook county.

* WHERE...Portions of Central Highlands, Far Eastern, Far Northern,

  and North Woods Maine

* WHEN...From 9 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow

  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions

  will impact the Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather

conditions will make travel extremely dangerous. If you must travel,

keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of

an emergency.

The latest road conditions for Maine can be obtained by going to

newengland511.org.

&&

$$

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

926 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

MEZ015>017-161030-

/O.CON.KCAR.WS.W.0003.250216T0900Z-250217T0900Z/

Southern Penobscot-Interior Hancock-Central Washington-

Including the cities of Calais, Amherst, Orono, Dedham,

Eastbrook, Grand Lake Stream, Bangor, Wesley, Great Pond, Old

Town, Princeton, Aurora, and Brewer

926 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM

EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet

  accumulations between 5 and 8 inches and ice accumulations around

  one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Central Washington, Interior Hancock, and Southern

  Penobscot Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet, and

ice will make travel extremely dangerous.

The latest road conditions for Maine can be obtained by going to

newengland511.org.

&&

$$

246

FXUS61 KCAR 160210

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

910 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Intensifying low pressure approaches overnight, crosses the

region Sunday, then exits across the Maritimes Sunday night. The

low remains across the Maritimes Monday into Tuesday. High

pressure builds toward the region Wednesday. Low pressure tracks

south of the region Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

9:10 PM Update: A narrow ridge of high pressure extends from

central Quebec and across Maine and into the western Atlantic.

Low pressure in southwest Kentucky will track into western PA by

Sunday morning. Satellite pictures show very thin cirrus across

far northern Maine with a more solid deck of mid level clouds

Downeast. A few northern valleys have dropped to around zero

while it is in the low to mid 20s along the coast. Temperatures

may still drop a few more degrees in the far north before the

clouds thicken up more after midnight. Snow has started in

southern Maine, and will work up into our southern zones very

late tonight. Made some tweaks to the hourly temperature grids

and lows, but overall the changes were minor.

Previous discussion:

High pressure in the area tonight before a low from the

northwest creeps eastward towards New England. This low will

move towards our north, and another low-level low pressure

system branches off this original low, branching off in the Gulf

of Maine. Dry conditions tonight with winds from the W/NW.

Skies should begin to become overcast overnight, which should

reduce any chance of radiational cooling. Temperatures will

still be relatively cold though based on the snow pack, so

expect lows in the single digits down south and below zero in

the north. The winter storm begins to creep in from the

southwest, with snow chances starting in our forecasting region

in the Bangor region, central Highlands, and coastline by Sunday

morning. Storm details are provided within the Short Term

discussion period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Have upgraded the Winter Storm Watches to Winter Storm Warnings

across Downeast areas. Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect across

northern portions of the forecast area. Primary low pressure lifts

toward western New England Sunday, with a secondary low starting to

develop across the southwest Gulf of Maine late. Aloft, the

negatively tilting upper trof will begin to develop a closed low

later Sunday with a strengthening 250 mb jet of around 180 knots

helping support the developing Gulf of Maine low. A dual jet

structure will also support the intensifying surface low and help

produce deep lift. Models indicate increasing isentropic lift

Sunday. Also, an area of 850-700 mb frontogenesis will lift across

the forecast area Sunday into Sunday night supporting snow bands

capable of producing potential snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per

hour. Snow will expand across the region Sunday with increasing

intensities. Based on critical thicknesses, expect precipitation

will remain in the form of snow across northern areas Sunday. Across

central and Downeast areas, indications are that temperatures will

warm aloft. Based on these factors, expect snow will eventually

transition to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain across central

and Downeast portions of the forecast area Sunday afternoon. The

secondary low intensifies while crossing the region Sunday night.

However, uncertainty still exists regarding whether the low track

remains along the Downeast coast or moves inland while crossing the

region. The eventual track of the low will impact the extent of

mixed precipitation across central and Downeast portions of the

region, along with potential snow accumulations across northern

areas. The secondary low intensifies Sunday night, exiting across

New Brunswick toward the Gulf of Saint Lawrence later Sunday night

while occluding and vertically stacking with the supporting upper

low. With still favorable dynamic support, strong isentropic lift

and favorable 850-500 mb Q-vector convergence, expect heavy snow

will persist across northern areas Sunday night. Across Downeast

areas, expect the early wintry mix will transition back to snow

before ending overnight with colder air wrapping around the exiting

system. The pressure gradient will tighten Sunday night between the

intensifying low lifting toward the Gulf of Saint Lawrence and high

pressure to the west. This will lead to an increasing blowing snow

threat, particularly across northern areas, where precipitation

remains in the form of snow with this event and significant snow

also occurred with the recent previous event. The vertically stacked

system will remain across the Gulf of Saint Lawrence Monday, with

the deformation zone extending back across northern portions of the

forecast area. Expect light, to occasionally moderate, deformation

zone snows will persist across northern areas Monday with additional

accumulations likely. Across Downeast areas, expect only a chance of

snow showers Monday. The tight pressure gradient between the intense

Gulf of Saint Lawrence low and high pressure to the west will

persist Monday. Based on forecast soundings, expect westerly winds

could gust up to around 40 mph Monday. This will lead to a

significant blowing snow threat across northern portions of the

forecast area Monday where additional snow will still be falling

in addition to the already fallen snow from recent events.

Preliminary snow totals with the Sunday/Monday event should

range from 12 to 20 inches, locally higher, across northern

areas. More uncertainty regarding snow totals exists across

central and Downeast portions of the forecast area where the

snow will transition to sleet and freezing rain. The deformation

zone remains across northern areas Monday night with snow

tapering to snow showers. Partly cloudy/mostly clear skies are

expected Downeast. Gusty winds will also persist, keeping a

blowing snow threat across northern areas. The vertically

stacked Gulf of Saint Lawrence system will slowly drift east

Tuesday. Could still have a chance of snow showers across the

north and mountains Tuesday, with partly cloudy/mostly clear

skies Downeast. Winds will remain gusty, though will gradually

decrease. Expect below normaL level temperatures Sunday through

Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

After the winter storm, snow showers begin to taper off in the

north by Wednesday. Winds stay relatively elevated and gusty

Tuesday night, but begin to decrease by daybreak Wednesday. The

next chance for precipitation is Thursday into Friday, as a low

pressure system near the Carolinas that moves eastward. Models

are beginning to trend the system south, indicating the low

pressure system will go out to the waters instead of moving

northeast, so currently the only areas that may see some

precipitation is southern counties. There could be some gusty

winds on Friday, predominantly over the waters and in southern

counties. Currently looking at high temperatures in the 20s next

week and generally have low temperatures at or below 10

degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

NEAR TERM:

KFVE/KCAR/KBGR/KHUL: VFR conditions this evening into Sunday

morning. NW wind around 5 knots, shifting NE 5 to 10 knots

Sunday. Snow develops south to north in the afternoon with

conditions to rapidly lower to IFR.

KBGR/KBHB: VFR into early Sunday morning. NW winds around 5 kt,

shifting NE 10 to 15 kt Sunday. Conditions lower to IFR by

Sunday morning as snow develops and changes to mixed

precipitation in the afternoon.

SHORT TERM:

Sunday...VFR/MVFR early then lowering to IFR/LIFR, occasional VLIFR

with snow developing. Snow heavy at times. Snow mixing with sleet

and freezing rain across central and Downeast areas. Variable winds

around 10 knots, becoming east/northeast 10 to 20 knots with gusts

up to around 25 knots.

Sunday night...IFR/LIFR, occasional VLIFR, north with snow heavy at

times. IFR/LIFR, occasional VLIFR, early Downeast with a wintry mix.

VFR/MVFR late with snow showers. East/northeast winds 10 to 20 knots

with gusts up to around 25 knots, becoming west/southwest 15 to 25

knots with gusts up to around 30 knots.

Monday...IFR/LIFR north with snow and blowing snow. VFR/MVFR

Downeast with a slight chance of snow showers. West/southwest winds

20 to 30 knots with gusts up to around 40 knots.

Monday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, north with snow showers

and blowing snow. VFR Downeast. West winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts

up to 35 knots.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR north with a chance of snow

showers. VFR Downeast. West/northwest winds 10 to 20 knots with

gusts up to around 25 knots Tuesday. West/northwest winds 10 to 15

knots Tuesday night.

Wednesday... VFR/MVFR north. VFR Downeast. West/northwest winds 10

to 15 knots.

Wednesday night...VFR. Variable winds around 10 knots.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of snow dependent on the eventual

track of low pressure. North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up

to around 20 knots.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM: Light freezing spray on the waters overnight into

Sunday. Small craft winds and seas forecast to begin Sunday

morning and quickly ramp up to Gale force. Winds from the W,

and begin to shift from the east by tomorrow evening. Seas

tomorrow evening become 3-6 ft in the inter-coastals, and 6-9

in the outer waters.

SHORT TERM: A Gale Warning is in effect for all the waters

Sunday through Sunday night. A Storm Watch is then in effect

for all the waters Monday through Monday night. Gale conditions

are then expected Tuesday into Tuesday night. Snow

transitioning to a wintry mix then rain Sunday. Rain and a

wintry mix Sunday night. Light freezing spray Monday. Moderate

freezing spray Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ME...Winter Storm Warning from 9 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday for

     MEZ001>006-010.

     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for

     MEZ011-031-032.

     Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for

     MEZ015>017-029-030.

MARINE...Gale Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for

     ANZ050>052.

     Storm Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night for

     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Brennan/CB

Short Term...Brennan/Norcross

Long Term...Norcross

Aviation...Brennan/CB/Brennan/Norcross

Marine...Brennan/CB/Brennan/Norcross

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Gray ME

818 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

MEZ022-025>028-161330-

/O.CON.KGYX.WW.Y.0008.250216T0600Z-250217T0600Z/

Interior Waldo-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo-

Including the cities of Arrowsic, Wiscasset, Bremen, Whitefield,

Phippsburg, Bowdoinham, Waldo, Thomaston, Hope, Northport,

Rockport, Newcastle, Camden, Belfast, Morrill, Damariscotta,

Alna, Rockland, Bristol, Knox, Topsham, Bowdoin, Appleton,

Liberty, Boothbay Harbor, Bath, Owls Head, Searsmont, Unity,

Montville, Jackson, Winterport, Dresden, Waldoboro, Brooks, and

Lincolnville

818 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1

AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations

  between 3 and 5 inches, sleet accumulations around 1 inch, and ice

  accumulations up to one quarter of an inch. Winds gusting as high

  as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Coastal Waldo, Interior Waldo, Knox, Lincoln, and

  Sagadahoc Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...A period of mixed precipitation is expected with air

  temperatures remaining below freezing. Expect slippery road

  conditions and avoid travel if possible. Even light snowfall

  amounts can accumulate on roads and cause dangerous driving

  conditions due to snow covered roads. Gusty winds will blow around

  unsecured objects and break some tree limbs. The power outage

  threat is limited.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road

conditions can be obtained by going to newengland511.org

&&

$$

JC

9:42 PM AST Saturday 15 February 2025

Special Weather Statement in effect for:

Queens County P.E.I.

Snow, ice pellets, freezing rain, and strong winds are expected.

Locations: Prince Edward Island.

Time Span: Sunday evening to Monday morning.

Similar events in the past have led to: Localized utility outages, minor tree damage, traffic delays and hazardous driving conditions.

Remarks: Precipitation will begin as snow Sunday evening and will transition to ice pellets and freezing rain overnight Sunday. A changeover to rain showers or drizzle is expected early Monday morning.

This storm is looking similar to the last storm the province experienced and warnings may be required as this event draws nearer.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to PEstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #PEStorm.

9:38 PM AST Saturday 15 February 2025

Special Weather Statement in effect for:

Moncton and Southeast New Brunswick

Snow and ice pellets, with freezing rain mixing in at times, beginning near noon Sunday and continuing Sunday night. Very strong wind gusts Sunday overnight.

Locations: southern New Brunswick.

Time span: Sunday afternoon and night.

Similar events in the past have led to: Utility outages, tree damage, traffic delays, and hazardous driving conditions.

Remarks: Precipitation will begin as snow early Sunday afternoon. The snow will transition to ice pellets and possibly freezing rain Sunday evening. Very strong southwesterly winds will also develop along the immediate Fundy coastline Sunday night.

Southern New Brunswick could see snowfall and ice pellet amounts of near 10 cm. There remains some uncertainty in the amount of ice accretion expected from the possible freezing rain. Driving conditions Sunday night and Monday morning will be impacted, province-wide. Freezing rain warnings may be issued as this event draws nearer.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NBStorm.

9:32 PM AST Saturday 15 February 2025

Snowfall Warning in effect for:

Fredericton and Southern York County

Snowfall with total amounts of about 15 cm is expected.

Locations: portions of central New Brunswick.

Snowfall totals: near 15 cm. 

 

Time span: Sunday late afternoon through Monday morning.

Remarks: Snow may mix with ice pellets at times Sunday evening.

Rapidly accumulating snow could make travel difficult over some locations. Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow.

Snowfall warnings are issued when significant snowfall is expected.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NBStorm.

9:31 PM AST Saturday 15 February 2025

Freezing Rain Warning in effect for:

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

Freezing rain is expected or occurring.

Duration: 4 or more hours.

Time span: beginning in the southwest of the province Sunday afternoon and elsewhere Sunday night.

Remarks: Snow ahead of the system will change to a brief period of ice pellets then to freezing rain. The freezing rain will change to rain over the southwestern part of the province Sunday evening and across the northeast, including Cape Breton, towards early Monday morning. Ice accretion amounts could be in the 5 to 10 mm range in some areas.

Additionally, wind warnings may be required for southwestern areas of the province for the strong west to southwest flow Monday.

Surfaces such as highways, roads, walkways and parking lots may become icy and slippery. Ice build-up may cause tree branches to break. Utility outages may occur.

Freezing rain warnings are issued when rain falling in sub-zero temperatures creates ice build-up and icy surfaces.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NSStorm.

9:29 PM AST Saturday 15 February 2025

Winter Storm Warning in effect for:

Woodstock and Carleton County

Another major winter storm is expected. 

Time span: Sunday afternoon until Monday afternoon.

Expected snowfall: 35 cm, locally higher.

Maximum wind gusts: easterly 60 km/h, higher along exposed areas of the Acadian peninsula.

Locations: central and northern New Brunswick.

Remarks: A prolonged period of snow, at times heavy, is expected to occur in conjunction with strong winds, causing blowing snow and very poor visibility.

Rapidly accumulating snow will make travel difficult. Road closures are possible.

Public Safety Canada encourages everyone to make an emergency plan and get an emergency kit with drinking water, food, medicine, a first-aid kit and a flashlight.

Winter storm warnings are issued when multiple types of severe winter weather are expected to occur together.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NBStorm.