Winter Storm Iliana Update Two

738

FXUS61 KCAR 140217

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

917 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure will exit across the Maritimes overnight through

Friday. High pressure will build in from the west Friday night

into Saturday and crest over the area Saturday evening. Low

pressure will approach from the southwest on Sunday, track

through the Gulf of Maine Sunday evening, and continue through

the Maritimes Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

9:17 PM Update: Low pressure is currently across northern Maine

with the primary low across Nova Scotia. The low in Maine will

get absorbed by the low in Canada and intensify across the Gulf

of Saint Lawrence overnight. Snow will continue to wind down

across Aroostook County late this evening with any additional

accumulation less than an inch. Will cancel the remaining winter

weather headlines with this update. The big concern for very

late tonight and Friday will be the strong west wind on the back

side of the low and the potential for significant blowing and

drifting snow in open areas. Travel could become very difficult

and locally nearly impossible in the open areas Friday.

Previous discussion:

The tightening pressure gradient between the intensifying low

across the Maritimes and high pressure across the Great Lakes

will support increasing west/northwest winds later tonight with

gusts 30 to 40 mph possible late. These winds will also support

an increasing blowing snow threat across northern areas later

tonight. The deepening low crosses the Gulf of Saint Lawrence

Friday. The tight pressure gradient between the Maritimes low

and Great Lakes high pressure will persist Friday. Strong gusty

west/northwest winds will persist Friday with frequent 40 to 50

mph gusts, possibly stronger across higher terrain areas. A

significant blowing snow threat will persist Friday across

northern portions of the forecast area. The most impacted

locations will be roads along open agricultural areas exposed to

the west/northwest winds, particularly across Aroostook and

northern Penobscot counties. Otherwise. expect mostly

cloudy/partly sunny skies along with isolated snow showers

across northern portions of the forecast area. Mostly sunny

skies are expected Downeast. Low temperatures tonight will range

through the single digits above zero north, to the lower to mid

teens Downeast. High temperatures Friday will range from 10 to

15 north, to the lower 20s Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Very strong gusty west northwesterly winds will continue into Friday

evening bringing a continuation of blowing and drifting snow as

strong low pressure moves away through the Maritimes. Streamers of

blowing snow across open areas of the north will likely continue to

result in hazardous travel through the evening. The wind will

diminish just a little overnight as mixing eases up a bit, but a

brisk wind will continue all night. The combination of the wind and

bitter cold air will result in frigid wind chills as low as 25 below

in the north and 15 below Downeast late Friday night.

A thin surface ridge of high pressure building over the area

Saturday will bring a mostly sunny day over the north with sunshine

beginning to fade behind increasing clouds across across the south.

A brisk northwesterly breeze in the morning will diminish late in

the day as the high builds over. Highs from only the low teens north

to the low 20s downeast will be several degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Our focus later in the weekend turns to another major winter storm

heading our way for Sunday. A large area of low pressure will track

from the Tennessee Valley northeast into the Central Appalachians

overnight Saturday night supported by a deep full latitude trough

digging into the Plains. Clouds will increase from south to north

overnight Saturday night and snow will begin to spread across the

southern part of our region around dawn Sunday morning. The snow

will slowly spread north reaching the northern part of our region

mid to late afternoon Sunday. Secondary low pressure will develop in

the Western Gulf of Maine Sunday afternoon. By the end of the day

Sunday this secondary low will become the dominant low which will

quickly intensify as it tracks northeast through the Gulf of Maine

into Sunday evening. The quick development of the secondary low will

limit how far north any sleet and freezing rain progresses with a

mix still possible in coastal regions late Sunday evening. All snow

is expected well inland.

Regarding amounts and timing, snow will spread into southern areas

early Sunday morning, and by midday Sunday 3 to 4 inches may have

fallen over parts of the south and snow will be approaching the

north. Heavy snow will continue through the afternoon across the

south and by early Sunday evening amounts may be around 8

inches south and 2 to 4 inches over the north. Heavy snow will

progress north late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Snow

will taper off late Sunday evening Downeast and early Monday

morning across the north. In total, widespread snow total

amounts of over a foot are likely across most inland areas away

from the coast.

Intense low pressure will be located over the Gulf of St. Lawrence

Monday into Monday night. This will bring another round of very

strong gusty westerly winds and extensive blowing and drifting with

white-out conditions again likely across the open agricultural areas

of the north. Some snow showers can be expected over the north as

moisture wraps back across the area around the upper trough.

Otherwise, a mostly cloudy sky is expected. Brisk and windy

conditions will likely persist into Tuesday and some snow showers

may continue over the north.

Looking ahead to the rest of the week, Wednesday will be dry with

some sunshine. Another storm may affect the area Thursday night into

Friday. However, most of our latest guidance is suggesting

blocking may hold this system offshore.......

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

904 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

MEZ001-002-005-006-141015-

/O.CON.KCAR.WI.Y.0002.250214T1200Z-250215T0200Z/

Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Penobscot-

Southeast Aroostook-

Including the cities of Mars Hill, Frenchville, Fort Kent,

Allagash, Millinocket, Madawaska, Medway, Sherman, Van Buren,

Houlton, Presque Isle, Hodgdon, Smyrna Mills, Clayton Lake,

Patten, East Millinocket, Caribou, and Ashland

904 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Northern Penobscot, Southeast Aroostook, Northeast

  Aroostook, and Northwest Aroostook Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 9 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree

  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas of blowing and drifting snow are likely

  across the agricultural open areas of Aroostook and Northern

  Penobscot Counties during the day Friday. Be prepared for

  localized whiteouts with near zero visibility creating extremely

  dangerous driving conditions. Potentially impacted roads include

  but not limited to...Routes 1, 1A, 2, 10, 11, 89, 161, 163, 167

  and 212.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high

profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

10:47 PM AST Thursday 13 February 2025

Winter Storm Warning in effect for:

Sydney Metro and Cape Breton County

Hazardous winter conditions are expected.

Total snowfall tonight: 15 to 30 cm, with highest amounts over Victoria County. 

Additional snowfall Friday: possibly exceeding 25 cm over the Highlands.

Maximum wind gusts: southeasterly 80 km/h tonight, except higher from Margaree Harbour to Bay St. Lawrence. Westerly winds gusting 80 to 90 km/h will develop on Friday.

Location: Cape Breton Island.

Time span: continuing this evening and diminishing overnight. Hazardous winter conditions likely to redevelop over the Highlands Friday morning.

Remarks: Several hours of snow, heavy at times, will be followed by a change over to ice pellets which are also expected to be heavy at times tonight. A brief period of freezing rain is possible after midnight before a changeover to rain in the overnight hours. Temperatures will quickly drop towards sunrise allowing onshore flurries to develop over western and northern Cape Breton on Friday. Blowing snow is expected both this evening, and on Friday in areas with accumulating snowfall. 

Similar storms in the passed have caused hazardous road conditions and utility outages.

Rapidly accumulating snow could make travel difficult over some locations. Visibility will be suddenly reduced to near zero at times in heavy snow and blowing snow.

Consider postponing non-essential travel until conditions improve.

Winter storm warnings are issued when multiple types of severe winter weather are expected to occur together.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NSStorm.