Winter Storm Iliana Update One

337

FXUS61 KCAR 130309

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1009 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure approaches tonight, crosses the region Thursday,

then exits across the Maritimes Thursday night through Friday.

High pressure crosses the region Saturday. Low pressure will

cross the region Sunday, then exit across the Maritimes Monday.

&&......

.....Previous Discussion:

No change to any winter weather headlines.

High pressure exits northeast across the Maritimes tonight while

intensifying low pressure lifts to the eastern Great Lakes and

secondary low pressure begins to develop along the Mid-Atlantic

coast. Expect increasing clouds early tonight, with snow then

starting to expand across the region late. A negatively tilting

upper trof will approach the region Thursday along with an

increasing 250 mb jet. At the surface, the primary and secondary

lows will track northeast and merge across Maine later

Thursday. Snow will persist across central and northern portions

of the region Thursday. Models indicate increasing 850-700 mb

frontogenesis and lift across northern Maine Thursday afternoon

which should support snowbands capable of producing snowfall

rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour at times. Expect snow across

Downeast areas early Thursday. However, based on critical

thicknesses indications are that precipitation should transition

to a wintry mix across central portions of the forecast area

along with interior Downeast areas. Along the Downeast coast,

snow will transition to a wintry mix before eventually

transitioning to all rain. The intensifying system exits across

the Maritimes Thursday night with support from the increasingly

negatively tilted upper trof. Early snow will taper to snow

showers across northern areas Thursday night. Across Downeast

areas, an early wintry mix will transition to snow showers

before ending with colder air being drawn across the region. The

greatest storm total snow accumulations will occur across

northern/northwest portions of the forecast area where 8 to 12

inches of snow are expected, with the higher totals generally

across the Saint John Valley and northwest areas. Lesser snow

accumulations will occur southward across the remainder of the

forecast area, with the least snow along the Downeast coast due

to the transition to rain where 2 to 3 inches of snow are

expected along with sleet and a light glaze of ice.

West/northwest winds will increase later Thursday night with the

tightening pressure gradient between the still intensifying low

exiting across the Maritimes and high pressure across the Great

Lakes. With the increasing winds, expect an increasing blowing

snow threat later Thursday night particularly across northern

areas. Low temperatures will occur early tonight then begin to

slowly warm overnight with increasing clouds. Low temperatures

will generally range from around 5 below to around 10 below zero

north, and through the single digits above zero Downeast. High

temperatures Thursday will range from the mid teens north, to

around 30 to the lower 30s interior Downeast with mid 30s along

the Downeast coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Low pressure will consolidate and intensify Friday morning as it

tracks away to the northeast across the Gulf of St. Lawrence. A

strong gradient between the departing low and high pressure building

into the Appalachians will bring very strong and gusty west

northwesterly winds topping 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph Friday.

Widespread blowing snow is likely with whiteout conditions at times

across the open agricultural areas of the north. Some isolated snow

showers will be possible across the north and we will have to watch

for the typical convergent bands of snow showers off the St.

Lawrence across north central parts of the area. Otherwise, The

north will be partly sunny and Downeast mostly sunny. Gusty west

northwesterly winds will continue through Friday evening and

gradually diminish late at night. Wind chills from the single digits

below north, to the single digits above Downeast on Friday will

drop to around 20 below north and 10 below Downeast overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Our focus this weekend will be on another significant to major

winter storm expected to impact the area Sunday. Saturday will bring

a bit of a respite before the next major storm. A sunny to partly

cloudy morning with a gusty northwesterly breeze will give way

to a more tranquil late afternoon with increasing high clouds

as a narrow ridge of high pressure briefly crests over the area.

A cold day is expected with highs from the low teens north to

the low 20s Downeast.

Clouds will thicken Saturday night as the low approaches. Snow will

overspread Downeast and the Lower Penobscot Valley early Sunday

morning then spread north reaching northern areas around midday

Sunday. Moderate to heavy snow will be falling across most of

the area by early Sunday afternoon. A corridor of sleet is

likely across the Downeast Region with some rain and freezing

rain closer to the coast later in the afternoon as some warmer

air pushes inland over the colder air near the surface.

Forecast models have come into good agreement on the track and

positioning of this low. By early Sunday evening primary low

pressure will be located over Western New England as secondary low

pressure takes shape in the Gulf of Maine. The GFS, however, is a

bit quicker with the low overnight Sunday night tracking it across

New Brunswick by midnight Sunday night while the ECMWF still has the

low center near the Maine coast. The slower ECMWF solution allows

the system more time to push warmer air inland bringing a chance for

a sleet/mix as far north as central areas with freezing rain and

rain nearer to the coast. The north should remain all snow

where up to a foot is possible in some areas Sunday afternoon

into Sunday night.

Snow will diminish to snow showers north Monday morning and end

Downeast. Strong gusty westerly winds following the system will

bring blowing and drifting Monday with white-out conditions again

possible in open areas of the north as the low intensifies to our

northeast. The low is expected to nearly stall to our northeast and

the strong gusty west winds will likely continue Monday night into

Tuesday. Otherwise, the north will be partly to mostly cloudy with

some snow showers and the south partly sunny.

The late week next week looks mostly dry at this time with the

exception of some possible snow showers Thursday night from a

trailing upper low pivoting south across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

NEAR TERM: Generally VFR through tonight. However, MVFR

conditions are possible towards daybreak/after 10z with

developing snow. IFR/LIFR, occasional LIFR, conditions develop

Thursday with snow across northern areas which could be heavy at

times. Early snow will transition to a wintry mix Downeast

Thursday afternoon, possibly to all rain along the Downeast

coast. IFR/LIFR early Thursday night, then VFR/MVFR late. Snow

will taper to snow showers across northern areas with blowing

snow late. A wintry mix will transition back to snow showers

before ending Downeast. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming

east around 10 knots tonight. East/southeast winds 10 to 20

knots with gusts 25 to 30 knots Thursday. Variable winds around

10 knots, becoming west/northwest 10 to 20 knots with gusts 25

to 30 knots Thursday night. Southeasterly low level wind shear

develops Thursday.

SHORT TERM:

Friday...VFR South. MVFR north with blowing snow. Very strong gusty

W winds.

Friday night...VFR. Some patchy blowing snow north in the evening.

Gusty NW winds diminishing late.

Saturday...VFR. NW winds, diminishing in the afternoon.

Saturday night...VFR north. VFR dropping to MVFR then IFR in snow

over the south late. Tranquil evening then increasing east winds

late.

Sunday...LIFR in heavy snow and low clouds. Chance of sleet/freezing

rain in parts of the south. NE winds.

Sunday night...MVFR becoming VFR south. IFR becoming MVFR north. NW

winds.

Monday...MVFR north. VFR south. Strong gusty W winds.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels through

much of tonight. Small craft advisory conditions then develop

late tonight. A Gale Warning remains in effect for much of the

waters, with the exception of the intra-coastal waters,

Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the

intra-coastal waters Thursday. Winds briefly subside early

Thursday night, with gale conditions then re-developing

overnight on all the waters. A chance of snow late tonight.

Snow transitioning to a wintry mix then rain Thursday. A wintry

mix early Thursday night. Light freezing spray tonight, then

again Thursday night.

SHORT TERM:

A gale warning will be needed Friday into Friday night for winds

gusting up to 45 kt and choppy seas up to 10 ft across the

offshore waters. Winds should drop to SCA early Saturday morning

then below SCA Saturday afternoon. Winds will build back to SCA

Sunday morning then gale Sunday afternoon. The gale will likely

persist through much of early next week with the strongest winds

likely Monday into Tuesday when a few gusts may reach 50 kt.

Seas could build up to 12 ft across the offshore waters in

response to the gales.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ME...Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Thursday to midnight EST

     Thursday night for MEZ001>006.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Thursday to midnight EST

     Thursday night for MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.

MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 AM to 4 PM EST Thursday for ANZ050-051.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM EST Thursday for ANZ052.

&&

$$

Near Term...MStrauser/Norcross

Short Term...Bloomer

Long Term...Bloomer

Aviation...MStrauser/Norcross/Bloomer

Marine...Norcross/Bloomer

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

959 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

MEZ005-006-131100-

/O.CON.KCAR.WS.W.0002.250213T1000Z-250214T0500Z/

Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-

Including the cities of Millinocket, Medway, Houlton, Smyrna

Mills, East Millinocket, Patten, Sherman, and Hodgdon

959 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO

MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow

  accumulations between 5 and 8 inches and ice accumulations around

  a light glaze.

* WHERE...Northern Penobscot and Southeast Aroostook Counties.

* WHEN...From 5 AM Thursday to midnight EST Thursday Night.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous

  conditions will impact the Thursday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet, and

ice will make travel extremely dangerous.

The latest road conditions for Maine can be obtained by going to

newengland511.org.

&&

$$

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

959 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032-131100-

/O.CON.KCAR.WW.Y.0004.250213T1000Z-250214T0500Z/

Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-Interior

Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-

Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-

Including the cities of Great Pond, Howland, Wesley, Aurora,

Amherst, Vanceboro, Bucksport, Dedham, Cherryfield, Bangor,

Orono, Old Town, Danforth, Greenville, Springfield, Machias,

Guilford, Castine, Orland, Calais, Princeton, Monson, Bar Harbor,

Brewer, Dover-Foxcroft, Milo, Perry, Lincoln, Grand Lake Stream,

Eastbrook, Eastport, Topsfield, Ellsworth, and Blanchard

959 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO

MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet

  accumulations between 3 and 7 inches with the greater snow

  accumulations across the western highlands and the least

  accumulation along the Downeast coast. Ice accumulations up to one

  tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of Central Highlands, Coastal DownEast, Far

  Eastern, Interior DownEast, and Penobscot Valley Maine

* WHEN...From 5 AM Thursday to midnight EST Thursday Night.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous

  conditions will impact the Thursday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or

freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads

and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for Maine can be obtained by going to

newengland511.org.

&&

$$

MStrauser

11:09 PM AST Wednesday 12 February 2025

Special Weather Statement in effect for:

Saint John and County

Significant winter weather is expected on Thursday.

Locations: southern New Brunswick.

Timing: beginning Thursday morning until Thursday night.

Remarks: Snowfall amounts could reach 15 cm in the heaviest snow. Snow will change to ice pellets or freezing rain at times Thursday afternoon or evening. 

Travel could become difficult. Motorists should be prepared for winter driving conditions.

A snowfall warning has been issued for central and northern New Brunswick.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NBStorm.

11:08 PM AST Wednesday 12 February 2025

Special Weather Statement in effect for:

Queens County P.E.I.

Significant snowfall is expected on Thursday afternoon and evening.

Locations: Queens County and Kings County.

Total snowfall: possibly reaching 15 cm for central and eastern areas.

Remarks: 10 to 15 cm of snow is forecast for central and eastern areas of Prince Edward Island before a changeover to ice pellets or freezing rain, and then rain showers late Thursday evening and overnight.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to PEstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #PEStorm.

11:06 PM AST Wednesday 12 February 2025

Special Weather Statement in effect for:

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

Messy winter weather forecast for Thursday, particularly in the afternoon and early evening. There may be a significant impact on rush hour traffic. 

Snowfall amounts: 5 cm except up to 10 cm for parts of northern Nova Scotia.

Time span: Thursday afternoon and evening.

Similar events in the past have led to: traffic delays and hazardous driving conditions.

Remarks: Precipitation will begin as snow near mid-day Thursday and transition to ice pellets and periods of freezing rain in the afternoon. 5 cm of snow is expected except for northern areas where up to 10 cm is possible.  A changeover to rain is forecast over southern sections of the province late in the day.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NSStorm.

11:04 PM AST Wednesday 12 February 2025

Snowfall Warning in effect for:

Prince County P.E.I.

Snowfall with total amounts of 15 to 25 cm is expected.

Locations: Prince County. 

Time span: beginning Thursday afternoon and ending overnight.

Remarks: The snow will be heaviest later in the afternoon and may be mixed with ice pellets at times in the evening before ending overnight.

There may be a significant impact on rush hour traffic in urban areas.

Be prepared to adjust your driving with changing road conditions.

Snowfall warnings are issued when significant snowfall is expected.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to PEstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #PEStorm.

11:01 PM AST Wednesday 12 February 2025

Snowfall Warning in effect for:

Fredericton and Southern York County

Snowfall with total amounts of 15 to 25 cm is expected.

Locations: central and northern New Brunswick

Time span: Thursday morning until Thursday night. 

Remarks: Snowfall rates of 2 to 4 cm per hour may occur over some locations. Snow is expected to mix with ice pellets Thursday afternoon and evening over Queens, Sunbury, and southern York counties.

Be prepared to adjust your driving with changing road conditions. Take frequent breaks and avoid strain when clearing snow.

Snowfall warnings are issued when significant snowfall is expected.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NBStorm.

11:00 PM AST Wednesday 12 February 2025

Winter Storm Watch in effect for:

Sydney Metro and Cape Breton County

Heavy snowfall with strong winds and blowing snow is expected on Thursday afternoon and evening.

Locations: Cape Breton Island.

Total snowfall: possibly exceeding 15 cm.

Maximum wind gusts: near 80 km/h, except higher from Margaree Harbour to Bay St. Lawrence.

Time span: beginning Thursday afternoon and ending after midnight.

Remarks: Several hours of heavy snow and blowing snow are forecast. A period of ice pellets and then rain are expected overnight into Friday morning. 

At this time, due to the uncertainty in the track of this system, it seems possible that some areas of Cape Breton could see as much as 30 cm or as little as 5 cm of snowfall with this system. Additional details will be revealed as the system draws nearer.

Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow. Poor weather conditions may contribute to transportation delays.

Winter storm watches are issued when multiple types of severe winter weather are expected to occur together.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NSStorm.