Tropical Storm Debby After Making Landfall As A Cat One Hurricane In NW Florida Drifts Northward - Heatwave Day Four - 08/04/2024 Data
WTNT34 KNHC 060238
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024
...SLOW-MOVING DEBBY BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 82.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNW OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM W OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of South
Carolina from South Santee River to Little River Inlet.
The Tropical Storm Warning south of Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida has
been discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's
River to South Santee River South Carolina
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South Carolina and North Carolina coast from north of South
Santee River to Cape Fear, North Carolina
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to Little River Inlet, South Carolina
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Little River Inlet to Cape Fear, North Carolina
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches and warnings may be required on Tuesday.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 82.1 West. Debby is
moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward
the east is expected on Tuesday, followed by a turn to the north at
a slow forward speed on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
will move across southeastern Georgia tonight, and then off the
Georgia coast Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the South
Carolina coast on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight weakening is forecast tonight or early Tuesday. Some
re-strengthening is possible on Wednesday and Thursday when Debby
is off the southeastern U.S. coast.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
tropical storm warning area along the Florida and Georgia Atlantic
coast through early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical
storm warning area by late tonight or early Tuesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
in North Carolina beginning Wednesday night.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce potentially historic
rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches, with maximum amounts of 30
inches, bringing areas of catastrophic flooding across portions of
eastern Georgia, the coastal plain of South Carolina, and southeast
North Carolina through Wednesday. Across portions of central and
northeast North Carolina, 6 to 12 inches of rainfall, with local
amounts to 18 inches, are expected through Saturday morning. This
rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban
flooding, with significant river flooding expected.
An additional scattered 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with maximum
amounts of 4 inches is possible across western portions of the
Central Florida Peninsula which may aggravate any ongoing flooding
conditions across that area.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over southeastern Georgia
and coastal South Carolina tonight through Tuesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the
Gulf coast of Florida through tonight. Swells will continue to
affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the middle of the week.
These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Brown
000
WTNT44 KNHC 060239
TCDAT4
Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024
The center of Debby has continued to move northeastward over
southeastern Georgia this evening. Earlier in the evening, there
were a few reports of sustained winds of 34-36 kt along portions of
the Georgia coast, which supported the 40-kt intensity on the
intermediate advisory at 0000 UTC. Although there have not been
reports that high in the past hour or two, the initial intensity is
maintained at 40 kt as the strongest winds are likely occuring in
bands offshore.
The initial motion estimate is 050/5 kt. The steering currents are
forecast to weaken further over the next couple of days, and
a slow eastward motion should begin on Tuesday when Debby is near
the Georgia coast. An even slower northward motion is expected on
Wednesday, which should bring the center toward the coast of South
Carolina Wednesday night or Thursday. Toward the end of the week,
most of the track guidance suggests that Debby may begin to move a
little faster toward the north in southerly flow between a
building ridge over the western Atlantic and a mid-level trough
over the Great Lakes and southern Canada. Although there is still
low confidence in the specifics of the track forecast, there is high
confidence that Debby will be meandering near the southeastern U.S.
coast for the next few days. The latest NHC track forecast is
similar to the HFIP corrected consensus model (HCCA) through 72
hours and lies between that model and the simple multi-model
consensus (TVCA) at the longer range.
Debby is likely to weaken a little more while it moves over land
through early Tuesday. After that, the center is forecast to move
offshore, which should allow for some gradual re-intensification.
The NHC intensity forecast follows the bulk of the guidance and
shows only modest strengthening before the center moves back
onshore.
Given the sluggish forward motion of Debby, extremely large rainfall
amounts are expected over portions of the Southeastern United
States.
Key Messages:
1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and
the coastal plain of South Carolina through Saturday morning will
likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will
likely result in considerable flooding impacts for portions of
central and northern Florida and across portions of central and
northeast North Carolina through Saturday morning.
2. Dangerous storm surge and tropical storm conditions will spread
northward along the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Florida
to North Carolina through the middle of the week. Storm surge and
tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for portions of
these areas. Residents in the storm surge watch and warning area
should follow any advice given by local officials.
3. In portions of Florida where Debby has passed, deadly hazards
remain, including downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure
generators are properly ventilated to avoid carbon monoxide
poisoning. Exercise caution when using chainsaws and power tools,
and drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 31.1N 82.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 06/1200Z 31.6N 81.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 07/0000Z 31.8N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 07/1200Z 31.9N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 32.4N 79.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 33.0N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 33.8N 79.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 10/0000Z 36.3N 78.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 11/0000Z 40.2N 73.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Brown
Heatwave Day Four - 08/04/2024
Nova Scotia
J.A. Douglas McCurdy Sydney Airport
Max: 32.2°C
Min: 20.5°C
Weather summary
for Nova Scotia
issued by Environment Canada
at 3:26 a.m. ADT Monday 5 August 2024.
Discussion.
The following areas set or tied a daily maximum temperature record
on August 4, 2024 (temperature values given in degrees Celsius):
PORT HAWKESBURY AREA (Port Hawkesbury)
New record of 31.2
Old record of 30.6 set in 2022
Records in this area have been kept since 1960
SYDNEY AREA (Sydney A)
Tied record of 32.2 set in 1917
Records in this area have been kept since 1870
Note: the temperature records reported here have been derived from a
selection of historical stations in each geographic area that were
active during the period of record.
Please note that this summary may contain preliminary or unofficial
information and does not constitute a complete or final report.
End/ASPC
posted by Advackia at 8:17 PM
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