Tropical Storm Debby After Making Landfall As A Cat One Hurricane In NW Florida Drifts Northward - Heatwave Day Four - 08/04/2024 Data

000

WTNT34 KNHC 060238

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number  15

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042024

1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...SLOW-MOVING DEBBY BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF

THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...

...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO

CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...31.1N 82.1W

ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNW OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA

ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM W OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of South

Carolina from South Santee River to Little River Inlet.

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida has

been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's

River to South Santee River South Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* South Carolina and North Carolina coast from north of South

Santee River to Cape Fear, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to Little River Inlet, South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* North of Little River Inlet to Cape Fear, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For

a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.

This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these

areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property

from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.

Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local

officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United

States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional

watches and warnings may be required on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was

located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 82.1 West. Debby is

moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A turn toward 

the east is expected on Tuesday, followed by a turn to the north at 

a slow forward speed on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center

will move across southeastern Georgia tonight, and then off the 

Georgia coast Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the South 

Carolina coast on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.

Some slight weakening is forecast tonight or early Tuesday.  Some 

re-strengthening is possible on Wednesday and Thursday when Debby 

is off the southeastern U.S. coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)

from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the

tropical storm warning area along the Florida and Georgia Atlantic

coast through early Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are 

expected along the coast of South Carolina within the tropical 

storm warning area by late tonight or early Tuesday.  Tropical 

storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area 

in North Carolina beginning Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause

normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters

moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if

the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,

please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,

available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce potentially historic 

rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches, with maximum amounts of 30 

inches, bringing areas of catastrophic flooding across portions of 

eastern Georgia, the coastal plain of South Carolina, and southeast 

North Carolina through Wednesday.  Across portions of central and 

northeast North Carolina, 6 to 12 inches of rainfall, with local 

amounts to 18 inches, are expected through Saturday morning. This 

rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban 

flooding, with significant river flooding expected.  

An additional scattered 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with maximum 

amounts of 4 inches is possible across western portions of the 

Central Florida Peninsula which may aggravate any ongoing flooding 

conditions across that area.  

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding 

associated with  Debby, please see the National Weather Service 

Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at 

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk 

graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.  For a list of 

rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see 

the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44 

KWBC or at the following link:

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html. 

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over southeastern Georgia 

and coastal South Carolina tonight through Tuesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Debby are expected to affect much of the

Gulf coast of Florida through tonight.  Swells will continue to

affect the Southeast U.S. coast through the middle of the week.

These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip

current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather

office.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.

Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$

Forecaster Brown

000

WTNT44 KNHC 060239

TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number  15

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042024

1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

The center of Debby has continued to move northeastward over

southeastern Georgia this evening. Earlier in the evening, there

were a few reports of sustained winds of 34-36 kt along portions of

the Georgia coast, which supported the 40-kt intensity on the

intermediate advisory at 0000 UTC.  Although there have not been

reports that high in the past hour or two, the initial intensity is

maintained at 40 kt as the strongest winds are likely occuring in

bands offshore.

The initial motion estimate is 050/5 kt. The steering currents are

forecast to weaken further over the next couple of days, and

a slow eastward motion should begin on Tuesday when Debby is near

the Georgia coast.  An even slower northward motion is expected on

Wednesday, which should bring the center toward the coast of South

Carolina Wednesday night or Thursday. Toward the end of the week,

most of the track guidance suggests that Debby may begin to move a

little faster toward the north in southerly flow between a

building ridge over the western Atlantic and a mid-level trough

over the Great Lakes and southern Canada.  Although there is still

low confidence in the specifics of the track forecast, there is high

confidence that Debby will be meandering near the southeastern U.S.

coast for the next few days.  The latest NHC track forecast is

similar to the HFIP corrected consensus model (HCCA) through 72

hours and lies between that model and the simple multi-model

consensus (TVCA) at the longer range.

Debby is likely to weaken a little more while it moves over land

through early Tuesday.  After that, the center is forecast to move

offshore, which should allow for some gradual re-intensification.

The NHC intensity forecast follows the bulk of the guidance and

shows only modest strengthening before the center moves back

onshore.

Given the sluggish forward motion of Debby, extremely large rainfall

amounts are expected over portions of the Southeastern United

States.

Key Messages:

1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and 

the coastal plain of South Carolina through Saturday morning will 

likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will 

likely result in considerable flooding impacts for portions of 

central and northern Florida and across portions of central and 

northeast North Carolina through Saturday morning. 

2. Dangerous storm surge and tropical storm conditions will spread

northward along the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Florida

to North Carolina through the middle of the week. Storm surge and

tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for portions of

these areas. Residents in the storm surge watch and warning area

should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. In portions of Florida where Debby has passed, deadly hazards

remain, including downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure

generators are properly ventilated to avoid carbon monoxide

poisoning.  Exercise caution when using chainsaws and power tools,

and drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 31.1N  82.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND

 12H  06/1200Z 31.6N  81.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

 24H  07/0000Z 31.8N  80.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER

 36H  07/1200Z 31.9N  79.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

 48H  08/0000Z 32.4N  79.1W   45 KT  50 MPH

 60H  08/1200Z 33.0N  79.1W   50 KT  60 MPH

 72H  09/0000Z 33.8N  79.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND

 96H  10/0000Z 36.3N  78.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

120H  11/0000Z 40.2N  73.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$

Forecaster Brown

Heatwave Day Four  - 08/04/2024

Nova Scotia

J.A. Douglas McCurdy Sydney Airport

Max: 32.2°C

Min: 20.5°C

Weather summary

for Nova Scotia

issued by Environment Canada

at 3:26 a.m. ADT Monday 5 August 2024.

Discussion.

The following areas set or tied a daily maximum temperature record 

on August 4, 2024 (temperature values given in degrees Celsius): 

PORT HAWKESBURY AREA (Port Hawkesbury) 

New record of 31.2 

Old record of 30.6 set in 2022 

Records in this area have been kept since 1960 

SYDNEY AREA (Sydney A) 

Tied record of 32.2 set in 1917 

Records in this area have been kept since 1870 

Note: the temperature records reported here have been derived from a 

selection of historical stations in each geographic area that were 

active during the period of record.

Please note that this summary may contain preliminary or unofficial 

information and does not constitute a complete or final report.

End/ASPC