Subtropical System Will Bring A Wet & Windy Weekend To Eastern Areas

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FXUS61 KCAR 060117

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

917 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will slowly exit to the east overnight. Low

pressure will approach from the south later Friday into

Saturday. At the same time, a front will cross the region

through the weekend then exit across the Maritimes Monday. High

pressure will build toward the region Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

9:17 PM Update: Satellite pictures and observations indicate a

clear sky across the FA. Hints of lower clouds developing near

Cape Cod and as the return flow around departing high pressure

develops expect lower clouds and fog to form to the south and

west of the FA later tonight and spread into the central

highlands and Downeast very late tonight/early Friday morning.

Only minor tweaks for the remainder of tonight and into Friday

morning, and mainly to the sky grids. Otherwise, the forecast

remains on track with minimal changes.

Previous discussion:

High pressure exits east of Nova Scotia tonight through Friday,

while still ridging back across the region. At the same time,

an ocean low tracks northeast while slowly intensifying.

East/southeast winds later tonight will help advect moisture

inland which will support areas of low clouds and fog developing

across mostly Downeast and central areas. Patchy, mostly river

valley, fog is possible across northern areas. The northwest

edge of the cloud shield from the ocean low will bring partly

sunny skies Downeast Friday. Expect mostly/partly sunny skies

across northern areas Friday. Low temperatures tonight will

range from the upper 40s to around 50 across the forecast area.

High temperatures Friday will range from the lower to mid 70s

north, to around 70 to the lower 70s Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Low pressure will continue to lift north across the western Atlantic

toward Nova Scotia through Saturday. Expect mainly clear skies

Friday evening followed by some increasing cloudiness later Friday

night. The model consensus is for the low to pass to our east across

west central Nova Scotia. This will keep the heaviest rainfall with

this system across the Canadian Maritimes through the day Saturday.

That being said, our eastern border may just be on the western edge

of the measurable rainfall on Saturday. The GEFS continues to

hint at this as well. Thus, maintained chance pops along the

New Brunswick border on Saturday, with likley pops across

Washington county. For QPF, blended WPC with NBM 50th

percentile. The low continues to lift north toward the Gulf of

St. Lawrence Saturday night. But on the heels of that system is

the next front approaching from the west. That one will cross

the region later Saturday night through Sunday. Thus, expect the

chance for showers Saturday night through Sunday morning,

followed by decreasing clouds Sunday afternoon behind the front.

Afternoon highs both Saturday and Sunday will generally range

from the mid 60s to around 70, which is a few degrees below

normal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Dry weather pattern setting for much of the mid and long term period

with west to northwest flow expected aloft. A weak upper disturbance

embedded in the flow will cross the region Monday and Tuesday. A

stray shower with the heating of the afternoon not totally out of

the question Monday and Tuesday but too low to mention this far

out. Afternoon highs on Sunday will be near to a bit below

normal, then moderate to a bit above normal by mid week......

9:58 PM ADT Thursday 5 September 2024

Special Weather Statement in effect for:

Colchester County - Truro and south

Significant rain is expected.

Total rainfall: 30 to 50 mm. Locally higher amounts possible.

Locations: central and eastern Nova Scotia. 

Time span: Saturday morning through Saturday night.

Similar storms in the past:

- hazardous driving conditions

- delays and cancellations of ferry services

- scattered utility outages

Remarks: An area of low pressure containing tropical moisture may bring significant rainfall to the province this weekend. Rainfall rates could exceed 20 mm per hour at times. There is still some uncertainty as to where the heaviest rain will occur in these areas.

In addition to the rain, gusty winds Saturday could lead to scattered utility outages.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.

9:56 PM ADT Thursday 5 September 2024

Special Weather Statement in effect for:

Saint John and County

Significant rain is expected.

Total rainfall: 30 to 50 mm. Locally higher amounts possible.

Locations: southern and eastern New Brunswick.

Time span: Saturday morning through Saturday night.

Similar storms in the past:

- hazardous driving conditions

- transportation delays

- scattered utility outages

Remarks: An area of low pressure containing tropical moisture may bring significant rainfall to the province this weekend. Rainfall rates could exceed 20 mm per hour at times. There remains some uncertainty as to where the heaviest rain will occur.

In addition to the rain, gusty winds Saturday could lead to scattered utility outages and transportation delays.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

9:54 PM ADT Thursday 5 September 2024

Rainfall Warning in effect for:

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

Heavy rain is expected.

Locations: Most of Nova Scotia.

Total rainfall: 40 to 70 mm, except locally 100 mm or more in areas of heaviest rain.

Time span: Friday evening until Saturday afternoon.

Similar storms in the past have caused:

- road shoulder erosion and washouts

- flooding of basements, especially in poor drainage areas

- scattered utility outages

Remarks: An area of low pressure containing tropical moisture will bring significant rainfall to most of the province. The majority of the rain is expected to fall over a 12 hour period with rainfall rates near 25 mm per hour possible over some locations. 

In addition to the rain, gusty winds may cause tree branches to break on Saturday.

Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads.

Watch for possible washouts near rivers, creeks and culverts.

Rainfall warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NSStorm.

9:56 PM ADT Thursday 5 September 2024

Special Weather Statement in effect for:

Queens County P.E.I.

Significant rain is expected.

Total rainfall: 30 - 50 mm. Locally higher amounts possible.

Locations: Prince Edward Island 

Time span: Saturday morning through Saturday night.

Similar storms in the past:

- hazardous driving conditions

- delays and cancellations of ferry services

- scattered utility outages

Remarks: An area of low pressure containing tropical moisture may bring significant rainfall to the province this weekend. Rainfall rates could exceed 20 mm per hour at times.

In addition to the rain, gusty winds Saturday could lead to scattered utility outages and transportation delays.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to PEstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #PEStorm.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:......

.....2. Northwestern Atlantic (AL99):

A gale-force, non-tropical area of low pressure centered a few 

hundred miles east of North Carolina is producing showers and 

thunderstorms with some signs of organization to the east of its 

center. This system could acquire some tropical or subtropical 

characteristics over the next day or two while it moves generally 

north-northeastward, remaining offshore of the northeastern United 

States. The low is expected to move over cooler waters and become 

associated with fronts by early Saturday, and further development is 

not expected. Additional information on this system, including gale 

warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National 

Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent......

....High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service 

under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online 

at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Reinhart

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Gray ME

334 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024

MEZ023>028-NHZ014-061945-

Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo-

Coastal Rockingham-

334 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Maine,

southwest Maine and southern New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Low pressure passing offshore brings building surf late Friday, and

especially on Saturday. Dangerous surf and life threatening rip

currents are possible late Friday and Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$