Winter Storm Demi

033

FXUS61 KCAR 190209

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

909 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

A coastal low will impact the area Sunday night into Monday. Arctic high

pressure will build in Monday night through the middle of the

week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

905 pm update...Bumped up PoPs tonight. Adjusted QPF amounts to

further increase expected rainfall Downeast towards one-half

inch and mentioned moderate rainfall intensities. Towards

Aroostook County, the warm layer is very shallow and snow is

already reported in the Saint John Valley. The trend will be

towards cooling off the boundary layer in Aroostook County with

rain gradually changing to snow north of I-95 later tonight. As

a result, bumped up snowfall totals tonight towards an inch or

two in much of northern Aroostook County. The higher totals will

be for elevations over 1000 ft. Also made mention of patchy fog

given the amount of low level moisture tonight.

Previous discussion...

Sfc low to the west of Hudson/s Bay has draped a cold front thru wrn

Quebec into eastern Ohio. Warm advection flurries and isolated

showers are likely occurring ahead of the front and have continued

mention of flurries/slight chc snow for this afternoon into the

evening hours.

Sfc mesoanalysis shows weak sfc low developing off of the south

Jersey coast. This is likely in relation to compact s/wv moving thru

PA along with favorable region of jet streak moving off of the

Carolina coast.

Isentropic lift will begin over late afternoon/early evening in the

Central Highlands with light snow moving in. As front approaches

precip will become more widespread with all areas seeing some form

of precip by midnight. Light snow blossoms across the north as front

approaches with rain through interior Downeast, possibly as far

north as Houlton. With added forcing from weak sfc low heading from

the Casco Bay area late this evening through Bangor around 06z and

toward Calais by 08z have maintained rainfall amounts between 0.3 to

0.5 inches between 00z and 06z.

The rain/snow line looks to set up overnight from Greenville up

toward Van Buren at this time. Overall expecting around 1 inch over

the St. John Valley with locally higher amounts at higher

elevations. Where a rain/snow mix exists we are expecting around 1/2

to 1 inch by the time the precip winds down in the morning.

Temperatures will fall down during the day with temps over the far

northwest in the lower 20s and by evening will be in the single

digits. Likewise temps over Downeast will be in the upr 30s/around

40 and by evening will be below freezing. Any standing water that

remains on area roads will freeze, leading to black ice. Next storm

likely to be on our doorstep Sunday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A coastal storm will impact Northern and Eastern Maine during

Sunday night and Monday morning. This will mean accumulating

snow and gusty northerly winds during that time.

Models have come into stronger agreement regarding storm track with

the 12z suite. The ECMWF and its ensembles have trended

northwestward, while the CMC and RGEM have trended

southeastward. These models all bring a strengthening low

pressure system into the Gulf of Maine and then into the Bay of

Funday or western Nova Scotia. The 12z NAM was a southeastern

outlier, with the 12z FV3 being a northwestern outlier. HREF

guidance indicates the potential of snow banding setting up

along I-95 and possibly Route 1 or Route 1A in Aroostook County.

However, even a small shift in storm track will shift the

location of any banding, which would affect snow totals.

Based on these factors, there was enough forecast confidence to

extend the Winter Storm Watch into Southeastern Aroostook

County. Not enough confidence in widespread 8"+ accumulations

further northwest to justify expanding the watch further.

Decided to hold off on any warnings/advisories at this time as

the event does not begin until the 3rd forecast period.

Snow will begin early to mid evening for the Bangor region and

Downeast. The snow will then move northward and overspread the

area by midnight or just after. Snow tapers off Monday morning

from southwest to northeast. A few snow showers could hold on

into the early afternoon in Northeastern Aroostook County. With

wind gusts reaching 25-35 mph, blowing snow will be a threat

during and just after the storm.

The other story during the short-term period will be very cold

Arctic air overspreading the region. The aforementioned storm

will usher in the cold Sunday night. Lows will drop into the

single digits above zero Sunday night in the North, with teens

for Bangor and Downeast. Strong cold air advection will prevent

temperatures from rising very much on Monday. By Monday night,

low temperatures are forecast to drop to the teens below zero in

the North. With winds still elevated, could see wind chill

values as low as -30 degrees there. Bangor and Downeast are

expected to see lows in the single digits below zero, and wind

chills in the teens below zero. Tuesday will be another very

cold day, with highs struggling to get above zero in the far

north. Single digits and teens are expected elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

High pressure will build closer to the area Tuesday night,

resulting in clearer skies and lighter winds. However, current

guidance suggests the high will be centered southwest of the

area. This would mean enough light winds to prevent full

decoupling. Still expecting low temperatures well below zero

for most. Temperatures remain very cold on Wednesday before

moderating a bit towards the end of next week. A low pressure

system passing southeast of the area could bring snow late next

week. However, details remain uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions this afternoon will diminish to IFR

at all terminals late this evening. Light rain at BGR and BHB

tonight with mixed precip at HUL, PQI and CAR tonight after a

brief period of light snow to start. FVE likely to remain snow

tonight. Precip will wind down around daybreak with cigs slowly

improving to low MVFR after 12z. LLWS expected this afternoon

and this evening before diminishing with frontal passage.

SHORT TERM:

Sun night: IFR or lower with snow and blowing snow. NW winds 10

to 15 kts gusting 20 to 25 kts,with coastal terminals gusting to

30 kts.

Mon: IFR or lower early AM with snow and blowing snow. Trending

to mainly VFR from SW to NE. NW winds 10-15 kts, gusting 20-30 kts.

Mon Night - Tue: VFR. W-NW winds 10-15 kts, gusting 20-25 kts on

Tuesday.

Tue Night - Thu: VFR. Light W winds.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM: Gale force winds will continue over the outer waters

through 06z tonight before diminishing to small craft levels.

Expect that small craft level seas will not diminish until

Sunday afternoon with seas running between 5 to 10 feet tonight

and between 3 to 7 feet on Sunday.

SHORT TERM:

Wind gusts will increase to Gale force by late Sunday night as a

coastal storm tracks into the Gulf of Maine. Gales will continue

into at least Monday morning. Wind gusts gradually begin to

diminish later Monday as the storm pulls away into the Canadian

Maritimes. Winds could drop below Small Craft Advisory criteria

by midweek. Wave heights will be around 6 to 9 feet Sunday night

into Monday, then gradually subside to 2 to 4 feet by midweek.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ME...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday

     afternoon for MEZ006-011-015>017-029-030-032.

MARINE...Gale Warning until 3 AM EST Sunday for ANZ050-051.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Sunday for ANZ052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Buster

Short Term...Clark

Long Term...Clark

Aviation...Buster/Clark

Marine...Buster/Clark

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Caribou ME

259 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

MEZ001>005-010-031-192000-

Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-

Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Central Piscataquis-

Southern Piscataquis-

259 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine, Far

Northern Maine and North Woods Maine.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Low pressure moving up the coast is expected to bring snow to the

region Sunday night into Monday morning. The best chance of

accumulating snow is across Downeast Maine and in areas along and

near the Maine and New Brunswick border. Snowfall amounts remain

uncertain at this time, so please continue to monitor the latest

forecasts from the National Weather Service.

Very cold weather is expected Monday through Wednesday next week.

Wind chills of 20 to 30 below are likely Monday night and again

Tuesday night over the north and 10 to 15 below Downeast. Slow

moderation is expected toward the end of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather

conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

$$

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

247 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

MEZ011-015>017-029-030-032-190900-

/O.CON.KCAR.WS.A.0001.250120T0000Z-250120T1800Z/

Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-Interior Hancock-Central

Washington-Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-Northern Washington-

Including the cities of Wesley, Springfield, Dedham, Ellsworth,

Calais, Castine, Princeton, Orono, Bucksport, Amherst, Aurora,

Grand Lake Stream, Cherryfield, Brewer, Vanceboro, Danforth,

Orland, Perry, Eastport, Old Town, Machias, Bar Harbor, Great

Pond, Howland, Bangor, Eastbrook, Topsfield, and Lincoln

247 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH

MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 6 and

  9 inches. Winds could gust as high as 30 to 35 mph. Snowfall rates

  could approach 1 to 2 inches per hour in the heaviest bands.

* WHERE...Portions of Coastal DownEast, Far Eastern, Interior

  DownEast, and Penobscot Valley Maine

* WHEN...From Sunday evening through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Blowing snow could limit

  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday

  morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow,

sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to

monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

$$

Clark

8:56 PM AST Saturday 18 January 2025

Snowfall Warning in effect for:

Fredericton and Southern York County

Snowfall with total amounts of 15 to 25 cm is expected.

Locations: much of New Brunswick.

Time span: Sunday evening until Monday morning.

Remarks:  An area of low pressure will track across Nova Scotia on Monday morning bringing snow to New Brunswick.  Gusty northerly winds will develop behind the low and combine with the freshly fallen snow to cause periods of reduced visibility in blowing snow during the day Monday. The snow may change to rain over areas near the Fundy Coast, leading to reduced snowfall amounts in those areas.

Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow.

Be prepared to adjust your driving with changing road conditions.

Snowfall warnings are issued when significant snowfall is expected.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #NBStorm.

Follow:Regional ATOM feedRegional ATOM