Out Like A Lion Storm

586

FXUS61 KCAR 302306

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

706 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

A warm front will move into the region this afternoon from the

southwest and progress northeast into tonight. Low pressure

will track northwest of the area Monday. High pressure will

build toward the region Tuesday, then cross the region

Wednesday. A warm front will lift across Downeast areas

Thursday. A cold front will then cross the region Thursday night

into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

7 PM Update: Precipitation continues to lift into the forecast

area this evening, with a mix of precip types throughout the

region. In the north, dewpoints are just finally rising as

moisture makes it all the way to the surface. Once relative

humidity reaches around 50 percent, the low levels appear to be

saturated enough for precip to make it to the surface instead of

continued virga. At this time, only the St John Valley remains

to fully saturate.

Precip has been starting out as snow, though as seen on KCBW CC

imagery, the rain/snow line is located across the Interior

Downeast region and up through Piscataquis county. It is along

this line that snow has switched to a mix of ice pellets or

completely sleet, and then just south and west it has moved to

sleet mixed with freezing rain, as seen on recent KBGR

observations. Cold air damming will hold back the northern

progression of this line some up against the Central Highlands,

however by midnight tonight this line is expected to be able to

push northwards, leading to a change from snow to these other

precip types all the way through the SJV.

A dry slot has also been noted on KCBW reflectivity, and is well

resolved by CAMs such as the HRRR and ARW. This may lead to the

Bangor region down through coastal Hancock seeing a few hours

of very light to no precipitation before this region fills in

again with precip that is currently found in western ME and

northern NH.

Previous Discussion:

Leading edge of light snow has reached Millinocket per latest

observations. The light snow will overspread the entire area by

early this evening. Towards Bangor and Downeast, main p-types

are sleet and freezing rain, with some plain rain mixing in at

the coast. As warm air continues to work in aloft, p-type will

trend towards freezing rain in the Bangor region this evening,

spreading northward to the Central Highlands. P-type will be all

plain rain at the coast by this evening with surface

temperatures rising above freezing.

As the warm front moves through, plain rain will reach the

Bangor region and Interior Downeast after midnight tonight.

Northern Aroostook will see snow change to sleet and then

freezing rain late tonight. Snow totals there will generally be

1 to 2 inches, with somewhat higher amounts possible in the

North Woods. Cold air damming will result in freezing rain

hanging on in the Crown of Maine and the colder valleys of the

Central Highlands into Monday morning. Other areas will see

entirely plain rain by that time. All areas will switch to plain

rain no later than midday Monday. Total ice accumulation will

generally be one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch from the

Central Highlands northward, and one-tenth of an inch or less

near Bangor and Downeast.

Heavy rainfall is not expected with this system. However, patchy

fog is likely to develop thanks to continued onshore flow and

warm air advection aloft. High temperatures on Monday will be in

the mid to upper 40s east, and lower 50s west. Some gusty

southerly winds are possible Monday afternoon near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Low pressure lifts northeast across Quebec province toward

Labrador Monday night drawing a cold front across the forecast

area. Expect rain in advance of the cold front early Monday

night. Precipitation then tapers to showers before ending in the

wake of the front across northern areas overnight leaving

mostly cloudy skies. Rain tapers to showers Downeast in the wake

of the front. The cold front exits across the Maritimes

Tuesday. Dependent on the timing of the exiting front, could

still have a chance of rain showers Downeast early Tuesday.

Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies early then partly sunny.

High pressure begins to build across the region Tuesday night

with mostly clear skies. High pressure crosses the region

Wednesday while low pressure approaching the Great Lakes draws a

warm front toward western New England. Expect mostly sunny

skies early Wednesday, with clouds then starting to increase

during the afternoon. Expect slightly below normal level

temperatures Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

The warm front lifts toward the region Wednesday night. Overrunning

precipitation will expand across the region in advance of the

warm front. After early lows, expect warming temperatures

later Wednesday night. Retreating high pressure will help leave

low level cold air across the region Wednesday night, while

temperatures aloft warm. Based on critical thicknesses, expect

precipitation will start in the form of snow across the forecast

area. With warming temperatures aloft, expect precipitation

will then transition to a wintry mix late across central and

Downeast portions of the forecast area. Across northern areas,

snow could begin to transition to a wintry mix late. However,

uncertainty still exists regarding how rapidly the transition

from snow to a wintry mix occurs across the forecast area. The

warm front will partially lift across the region Thursday, with

a cold front then crossing the region Thursday night. The wintry

mix will eventually transition to rain, from south to north,

across the entire region Thursday. Precipitation should then

taper to showers before ending later Thursday night. A possible

upper level disturbance and surface trof could bring a chance of

rain/snow showers to mostly the north and mountains Friday.

Otherwise, expect partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies north with

partly sunny skies Downeast Friday. Clouds should then begin to

decrease Friday night with building high pressure. High pressure

should bring partly cloudy skies Saturday. Low pressure could

then bring a chance of precipitation Sunday, though

precipitation timing/amounts/types remain uncertain. Near

normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures are

expected Thursday/Saturday/Sunday. Slightly above normal level

temperatures are expected Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

NEAR TERM:

Snow across northern terminals from MLT/HUL northwards with

FZRA/IP at Downeast terminals early this evening. Snow will

transition to IP and FZRA from south to north through the night,

fully transitioning across all northern terminals shortly after

06z. Downeast terminals will see a switch to RA by 06z. SE winds

5 to 10 kts.

FZRA will taper off for northern terminals by around 12z, from

south to north, as temperatures warm and RA lasts through the

rest of the day on Monday. Downeast terminals will remain RA

through this time. BR/FG is likely to move in from south to

north beginning early Monday morning and lasting through the

day. Winds will shift S at around 10 to 15 kts, with LLWS likely

building in through the afternoon from south to north.

SHORT TERM:

Monday night...IFR/LIFR early, then VFR/MVFR late. Rain tapering to

rain showers. South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming

west/northwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR early, then VFR. A chance of rain showers early

Downeast. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...VFR. Northwest winds 10 to 15

knots Tuesday night. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming

variable 5 to 10 knots Wednesday.

Wednesday night...VFR early. IFR/LIFR late. Snow late north. Snow

transitioning to a wintry mix central and Downeast areas. Variable

winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots with gusts up

to 20 knots.

Thursday...IFR/LIFR. A wintry mix changing to rain from south to

north. Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots,

becoming south/southwest 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday night...IFR/LIFR early, then MVFR/IFR. Rain tapering to

showers. South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming

west/northwest.

Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of rain and snow showers, mostly north.

West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory

criteria through early this evening. Wind gusts approach SCA

levels on the outer waters later tonight. Southerly winds

increase to Gale force on the outer waters late morning to

midday Monday, and to SCA levels on the intra-coastal waters.

Hence, a Gale Warning for the outer waters and an SCA for the

intra-coastal waters will go into effect beginning late Monday

morning. Seas build to 7 to 10 feet on the outer waters Monday

afternoon. Rain and fog will reduce visibility on the waters

tonight and Monday.

SHORT TERM: Gale force wind gusts possible early Monday night.

Otherwise, small craft advisory conditions later Monday night

into Wednesday. Rain with patchy fog Monday night. A chance of

showers early Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A few ice jams remain locked in place across northern Maine but

are not impacting any roads or structures. Any impacts are low

lying areas near the river banks with minimal impacts. River ice

is leading to a localized limited risk for ice jam flooding

over the next week as thermal decay of the ice is expected. Some

river gauges showing influence from building frazil ice due to recent

cold temperatures but no actual impacts expected.

An ice jam remains grounded into the river bed upriver from

Washburn at the Aroostook River bend near Castle Hill and Wade.

Water levels have come down and will continue to fall over the

next couple days.

An ice jam remains grounded into the river bed upriver of Fort

Fairfield near the Fort Fairfield and Caribou town line. Water

levels have fallen over the last couple days and will continue

to fall as ice decays. Minor shifts could cause additional low

lying flooding but impacts will be minimal.

A six mile jam remains around Saint Francis, with no flooding at

this time. Water levels continue to subside in this area.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT

     Monday for MEZ001-002.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EDT Monday for MEZ003>006-

     010-011-017-030-032.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for MEZ015-016-

     029-031.

MARINE...Gale Warning from 10 AM Monday to midnight EDT Monday night

     for ANZ050-051.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to midnight EDT Monday

     night for ANZ052.

&&

$$

Near Term...AStrauser/Clark

Short Term...Norcross

Long Term...Norcross

Aviation...AStrauser/Clark/Norcross

Marine...AStrauser/Clark/Norcross

Hydrology...Norcross

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

356 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

MEZ003>006-010-011-017-030-032-310900-

/O.CON.KCAR.WW.Y.0012.250331T0000Z-250331T1300Z/

Northern Somerset-Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-

Southeast Aroostook-Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Central

Washington-Coastal Washington-Northern Washington-

Including the cities of Springfield, Calais, Danforth,

Millinocket, East Millinocket, Topsfield, Monson, Perry, Medway,

Lincoln, Machias, Hodgdon, Billy-Jack Depot, Blanchard,

Chamberlain Lake, Cherryfield, Princeton, Grand Lake Stream,

Baker Lake, Greenville, Wesley, Baxter St Park, Eastport,

Vanceboro, Sherman, Smyrna Mills, Patten, Houlton, Howland,

Churchill Dam, and Mount Katahdin

356 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING

TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet

  accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations between one

  tenth and one quarter of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of Central Highlands, Coastal DownEast, Far

  Eastern, Interior DownEast, North Woods, and Penobscot Valley Maine

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous

  conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or

freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads

and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for Maine can be obtained by going to

newengland511.org.

&&

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Gray ME

253 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

MEZ018-019-023>027-NHZ005>015-311900-

Interior York-Central Interior Cumberland-Coastal York-

Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Southern Grafton-

Southern Carroll-Sullivan-Merrimack-Belknap-Strafford-Cheshire-

Eastern Hillsborough-Interior Rockingham-Coastal Rockingham-

Western And Central Hillsborough-

253 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Maine, south central Maine,

southwest Maine, New Hampshire, central New Hampshire, northern New

Hampshire and southern New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Another winter storm will approach the region Wednesday night into

Thursday. This may lead to another round of snow or mixed

precipitation across parts of the forecast area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

3:52 PM ADT Sunday 30 March 2025

Freezing Rain Warning in effect for:

Fredericton and Southern York County

Freezing rain is expected or occurring.

Locations: New Brunswick except parts of the Fundy coast.

Total freezing rain amounts: 5 to 10 mm, lesser amounts along the Fundy coast.

Freezing rain duration: 4 to 8 hours.

Similar storms in the past have caused:

- cancellations of scheduled activities

- disruptions to transportation networks

- damage to trees and localized utility outages

Remarks: A warm front will sweep across the region on Monday. Precipitation will begin as snow tonight before changing to ice pellets then freezing rain by Monday morning. Freezing rain will transition to rain later on Monday morning for southern New Brunswick and in the afternoon for the northern half of the province.

Surfaces such as highways, roads, walkways and parking lots may become icy and slippery. Ice build-up may cause tree branches to break. Utility outages may occur.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NBStorm.

3:50 PM ADT Sunday 30 March 2025

Freezing Rain Warning in effect for:

Prince County P.E.I.

Freezing rain is expected or occurring.

Locations: Prince County.

Total freezing rain amounts: possibly up to 5 mm.

Freezing rain duration: 4 hours.

Similar storms in the past have caused:

- cancellations of scheduled activities

- disruptions to transportation networks

- damage to trees and localized utility outages

Remarks: A warm front will sweep across the region on Monday. Precipitation will begin as snow tonight before changing to ice pellets then freezing rain on Monday morning. Freezing rain will then transition to rain near noon on Monday.

Surfaces such as highways, roads, walkways and parking lots may become icy and slippery. Utility outages may occur.

Freezing rain warnings are issued when rain falling in sub-zero temperatures creates ice build-up and icy surfaces.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to PEstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #PEStorm.