Winter Storm Iliana

046

FXUS61 KCAR 120249

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

949 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure builds in tonight through Wednesday. Low pressure

approaches Wednesday night, crosses the region Thursday, then

exits across the Maritimes Thursday night through Friday. High

pressure crosses the region Saturday. Low pressure will cross

the region Sunday.....

&&

.....Prev discussion blo...

A cold front will cross the region from northwest to southeast

late this afternoon and evening. This front will bring the

threat of snow showers for central and northern parts of the

forecast area. Based on radar and high-resolution model

guidance, the best threat for any snow showers will be from the

Katahdin region eastward to Houlton and a bit north. With low-

level lapse rates still exceeding 8 degrees C/km in this area,

still cannot rule out some brief snow squalls. The threat for

any snow showers or squalls will end early this evening as the

front clears the area and instability is lost.

While west to northwesterly winds will be gusty (25-30 mph)

immediately behind the front, winds will diminish tonight as

high pressure builds in. Skies will clear out as well. The best

chance of decoupling tonight will be in the North Woods, so went

coldest there. Most places in the North Woods will see at least

teens below zero, with some of the coldest spots reaching -20F.

Otherwise, low temperatures tonight will be in the single

digits below zero from the Central Highlands northward. The

Bangor region and Downeast will see lows mostly in the single

digits above zero. High pressure will bring a dry and cold day

Wednesday. Highs will be in the teens from the Central Highlands

northward, with lower 20s near Bangor and Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Have issued a Winter Storm Watch across northern portions of the

forecast area from late Wednesday night through late Thursday

night. High pressure exits northeast across the Maritimes

Wednesday night while intensifying low pressure lifts to the

eastern Great Lakes and secondary low pressure begins to develop

along the Mid-Atlantic coast. Expect increasing clouds early

Wednesday night, with snow then starting to expand across the

region late. A negatively tilting upper trof will approach the

region Thursday along with an increasing 250 mb jet. At the

surface the primary and secondary lows will merge in the vicinity

of Maine later Thursday. Snow will persist across central and

northern portions of the region Thursday. Expect snow across

Downeast areas early Thursday. However, based on critical

thicknesses indications are that precipitation could transition

to a wintry mix across central portions of the forecast area

along with interior Downeast areas. Along the Downeast coast,

snow will transition to a wintry mix before eventually

transitioning to all rain. The heaviest snow with this event

will occur across northern/northwest portions of the forecast

area where the Winter Storm Watch has been issued. Preliminary

snow accumulations across the Watch area are expected to range

from 6 to 10 inches. Lesser snow accumulations will occur

southward across the remainder of the forecast area, with the

least snow along the Downeast coast due to the transition to

rain. The intensifying system exits across the Maritimes

Thursday night with support from the increasing negatively

tilted upper trof. Early snow will taper to snow showers across

northern areas Thursday night. Across Downeast areas, an early

wintry mix will transition to snow showers before ending with

colder air being drawn across the region. West/northwest winds

will increase Thursday night with the tightening pressure

gradient between the still intensifying low across the Gulf of

Saint Lawrence and high pressure across the Great Lakes. With

the increasing winds, expect an increasing blowing snow threat

Thursday night particularly across northern areas. The tight

pressure gradient will persist Friday between the intensifying

low across the Gulf of Saint Lawrence and high pressure across

the Great Lakes. Preliminary indications are that west/northwest

winds gusts of 30 to 40 mph are possible Friday. These winds,

along with the newly fallen snow, could lead to a significant

blowing snow threat Friday particularly across northern areas.

Otherwise, expect partly sunny skies with a slight chance of

snow showers across northern areas with mostly/partly sunny

skies Downeast. Expect below normal level temperatures across

northern areas Thursday, with near normal to slightly above

normal, level temperatures Downeast. Expect below normal level

temperatures regionwide Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

High pressure will build across the region Friday night with

decreasing winds along with partly cloudy/mostly clear skies. High

pressure begins to exit across the Maritimes Saturday while an

intensifying low lifts toward the Mid-Atlantic region. Expect

increasing clouds Saturday, with a chance of snow Saturday

night. Significant uncertainty then exists regarding the track

of the low Sunday. Precipitation amounts, types and chances will

be dependent on the eventual track of the low. The system will

exit Monday leaving a chance of snow showers across the region,

particularly the north and mountains. High pressure should then

build toward the region Tuesday. Expect below normal level

temperatures Saturday/Monday/Tuesday. Temperatures Sunday will

be dependent on the eventual track of low pressure......

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Gray ME

1029 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2025

MEZ008-009-013-014-121530-

/O.CON.KGYX.WW.Y.0007.250213T0600Z-250213T2300Z/

Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Franklin-Southern

Somerset-

Including the cities of Skowhegan, Athens, New Sharon,

Pittsfield, Moosehead, Cornville, New Vineyard, Wilton, Oquossoc,

Coburn Gore, Embden, New Portland, Madison, Rangeley, Davis,

Pittston Farm, Jay, Palmyra, Temple, Jackman, Phillips, Brassua,

Avon, Long Pond, Chesterville, Kingfield, Bingham, Seboomook, and

Farmington

1029 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST

THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations

  between 3 and 5 inches, sleet accumulations between one tenth and

  two tenths of an inch, and ice accumulations around a light glaze.

* WHERE...Southern Somerset, Central Somerset, Northern Franklin,

  and Southern Franklin Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 6 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...A weak weather system will bring a period of light

  snowfall and mixed precipitation to the region. Although snowfall

  amounts will be light, travel may still be impacted due to

  snowfall accumulations on roads. Snow will change to a period of

  sleet. Avoid travel if possible. The hazardous conditions could

  impact the Thursday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road

conditions can be obtained by going to newengland511.org

Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while

driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken

on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These surfaces could be icy and

slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

&&

$$

Legro

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Caribou ME

509 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2025

MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032-122100-

Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-

Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-

Coastal Washington-Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-

509 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine,

Coastal DownEast Maine, Far Eastern Maine, Interior DownEast Maine

and Penobscot Valley Maine.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Accumulating snow is expected Thursday. The snow will transition to

a wintry mix Downeast.

Another system will bring more accumulating snow Sunday into early

next week. However, there is still uncertainty regarding the storm

track.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather

conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

$$

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

342 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2025

MEZ001>006-120900-

/O.NEW.KCAR.WS.A.0002.250213T0600Z-250214T0600Z/

Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-

Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-

Including the cities of Mars Hill, Sherman, Ashland, Hodgdon,

Presque Isle, East Millinocket, Allagash, Mount Katahdin,

Houlton, Churchill Dam, Frenchville, Madawaska, Van Buren,

Billy-Jack Depot, Baxter St Park, Millinocket, Patten, Baker

Lake, Clayton Lake, Fort Kent, Caribou, Chamberlain Lake, Smyrna

Mills, and Medway

342 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 6 and

  10 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of Central Highlands, Far Eastern, Far Northern,

  and North Woods Maine

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions

  will impact the Thursday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow,

sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to

monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

$$

Norcross

10:16 PM AST Tuesday 11 February 2025

Heavy snowfall with blowing snow is expected on Thursday through Thursday night.

Locations: Inverness county - Mabou and north, and Victoria county.

Total snowfall possible: 20 to 30 cm.

Maximum Les Suêtes wind gusts: southeasterly 130 km/h.

Time span: beginning Thursday afternoon.

Remarks: Several hours of snow and blowing snow are expected. Travel will likely be impacted. A period of ice pellets may also mix in overnight Thursday.

Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow. Poor weather conditions may contribute to transportation delays.

Winter storm watches are issued when multiple types of severe winter weather are expected to occur together.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NSStorm.

In effect for:

Victoria County

10:04 PM AST Tuesday 11 February 2025

Significant winter weather is expected on Thursday.

Locations: Prince Edward Island.

Time span: beginning Thursday midday.

Total snowfall possible: 15 to 20 cm over western sections.

Maximum wind gusts forecast: northwesterly 70 km/h.

Remarks: The heaviest snow is forecast over western portions of the province. Ice pellets and freezing rain may mix in over eastern and central areas Thursday evening and overnight. Motorists should be prepared for winter driving conditions. Warnings may be required as this event draws nearer.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to PEstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #PEStorm.

In effect for:

Queens County P.E.I.

10:03 PM AST Tuesday 11 February 2025

Significant winter weather forecast for Thursday.

Locations: most of Nova Scotia.

Time span: Thursday and Thursday evening.

Similar events in the past have led to: localized utility outages, minor tree damage, traffic delays and hazardous driving conditions.

Remarks: Precipitation will begin as snow on Thursday morning and transition to ice pellets and periods of freezing rain in the afternoon. A changeover to rain may also occur over southern sections of the province late in the day. There remains at this time uncertainty in the icing amounts. Warnings may be required as this event draws nearer.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NSStorm.

In effect for:

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

9:41 PM AST Tuesday 11 February 2025

Significant winter weather is expected on Thursday.

Locations: New Brunswick.

Timing: beginning Thursday morning.

Remarks: Snowfall amounts across central and northern areas could reach 20 to 30 cm in the heaviest snow. Snow will change to ice pellets or freezing rain at times over parts of southern New Brunswick Thursday afternoon.

Travel could become difficult. Motorists should be prepared for winter driving conditions.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NBStorm.

In effect for:

Oromocto and Sunbury County