Winter Storm Chan Update One

Winter Storm Chan

151

FXUS61 KCAR 020009

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

709 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure builds in tonight and quickly pushes east on

Tuesday morning. A coastal low approaches from the southwest

Tuesday afternoon, passes offshore Tuesday night, then exits

into the southern Canadian Maritimes on Wednesday. An Arctic

cold front crosses the region on Thursday with high pressure

building in for Friday. Another cold front approaches from the

northwest on Saturday.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

7:09PM UPDATE...Have made Marine Headline changes and updated

the aviation forecast for tonight.

Previous Discussion...

Key Messages

-Noreaster Tuesday and Tuesday night will bring heavy snowfall to

Downeast and Bangor

Gusty northwest winds will continue this evening. 1030mb sfc high

over NY State will build east toward the region this evening with

winds decreasing. Partly cloudy skies are expected tonight before

mid-high clouds move in fm the west. Min temps drop into the single

digits across the north.

Surface low developing over the northern Gulf as seen on vis imagery

as of 19z. S/wv will help deepen low over the southeastern U.S.

tonight. By mid-late morning on Tuesday sfc low will eject off of

the mid-Atlantic coast and head northeast twd the Gulf of Maine.

Snow should move into the CWA around 14z Tuesday. The coastal front

will set up late morning/early afternoon leading to mixing with

and/or changing to rain along the coast and over the outer islands.

Surface temps will rise into the mid-upr 30s in the afternoon along

the coast. Inland locations will remain below freezing during the

day.

As the coastal low heads northeast toward the Gulf of Maine

precipitation overspreads all but far nwrn areas as dry ridge axis

remains close to the international border. As precip gets heavier

along the coast, evaporational cooling will likely result in snow

Tuesday night. The highest snowfall rates will likely be around

midnight. SLRs look to be fairly low over Downeast but will likely

increase toward morning. This may result in isolated power outages

initially but as the pressure gradient tightens, winds increase with

gusts upwards of 25-30 mph. Cannot rule out blowing and/or drifting

snow late Tuesday night over southern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Key Messages

-Cool and Dry Clean Up Day Wednesday

-Thursday Arctic Cold Front with Snow Squalls

For Wednesday, brief and weak surface ridging should clear out

skies and decrease winds. Temps should be in the 20s for

northern areas and low 30s south for a good clean up day after

the snowstorm. For Wednesday night, a cold front will approach

the region from Quebec, increasing clouds and shifting winds

from the south. Temps should be in the teens for much of the

region with low 20s from Bangor to the shoreline.

For Thursday an arctic cold front will push through the state.

Much of the operational and ensemble guidance have a decent

handle on timing. Looking at 9-11am timeframe across the NW

zones and a Noon-4pm timeframe for SE zones. The concern with

this system is the increasing instability along the front.

Latest trend in model soundings show enough SBCAPE and elevated

CAPE, lapse rates, and negative Theta E to justify snow squalls

developing in the afternoon. The question will be if strong

enough winds will mix down throughout the day. All the

ingredients are there showing modeled BTV snow squall parameters

of 2-4 across the region. The winds will determine if short

fused SPSs or SQWs will be needed. Temperatures prior to FROPA

will be up into the low 30s north and mid to upper 30s south.

Messaging will be for potential slick travel and quick

visibility drops with snow showers and squalls.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

Key Messages

-Very Cold Temps Thurs night with wind chills -20F to -15F

-Sunny and Cold Friday

Thursday night high pressure will slide south of Maine as low

pressure deepens in the Maritimes. Pressure gradient will

tighten and then the NW cold air advection will push a large

area of -19C to -21C 925mb temps into the area. Surface

air temperatures will crash to mainly below zero across the

north in the -5F to 0F range. This will be the coldest night so

far this season. Temperatures around 0F for the Central

Highlands to Bangor Region eastward to Calais area. Generally

5-9F along the Downeast coast and 10-15F on the islands. NW

winds will be gusting 15-25mph and some gusts up to 35mph across

the higher terrain. This will result in wind chills dropping to

around -20F across the North with some places potentially

reaching Cold Weather Advisory levels.

Friday will be sunny and cold. -20C to -18C 925mb temps combined

with snowpack across much of the CWA will result in cold surface

high temps. Highs topping out in the upper single digits to

teens across the north, upper teens in the Central Highlands and

20-25F for the Bangor region to Downeast coast. Wind chills

across Northern areas will be at zero or slightly below zero but

winds will gradually weaken during the day as the pressure

gradient weakens.

Beyond for the weekend into Monday the models lose any consistency

with another storm possible this weekend. Expect seasonably cool

temperatures but warmer than Friday will be.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

NEAR TERM: 00z TAF UPDATE...FEW MVFR cigs possible at northern

terms tonight. Otherwise TAFs remain consistent with 18z

issuance.

Previous Discussion...

VFR this evening, though northern terminals may see

brief MVFR cigs or -shsn for the first hour or two of the TAF

period. MVFR looks to move in 14z Tuesday with light snow.

Conditions then deteriorate to IFR/LIFR Tuesday night. North

winds will gust to 20-25kts late Tuesday night, leading to

blowing snow.

SHORT TERM: Wednesday...VFR south, MVFR cigs possible north.

NW Winds 5-10kt becoming light and variable late day.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR cigs. Brief IFR/LIFR vsby possible due to

SNSH in the midday to afternoon hours. SW winds 5-15kt shifting

W late afternoon and increasing winds.

Thursday night...VFR south, MVFR cigs north. VCSH/-SHSN for

northern terms. W-NW winds 10-15kt with gusts 20-25kt possible.

Friday...VFR. W-NW winds 10-15kt gusting 20-30kt early becoming

W-WSW 5-15kt in the afternoon.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR cigs, low end chance of IFR. Chance of

snow. S winds 5-10kt.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM: UPDATE...Small Craft Advisory in effect through 10PM

this evening. A Gale Watch is in effect from Tuesday Evening

through Wednesday Morning. No other changes.

Previous Discussion...

Gales will continue for the next hour or two before

diminishing to small craft levels over the waters this evening.

Wind and seas remain below sca levels on Tuesday before

approaching gales once again late Tuesday night.

SHORT TERM: Wednesday winds will fall below SCA criteria by

midday but waves will remain 5-7ft into the evening hours. W-SW

winds will increase to SCA conditions overnight into Thursday

AM. Winds will shift W Thursday afternoon and Gales are expected

again. Winds will shift NW Thursday night and potentially

gusting 45-46kt over the outer portions of the coastal waters.

Low end probability of storm conditions, will need to monitor

trends. Winds/seas will fall below SCA criteria Friday night.

Will need to monitor another storm system nearing the waters

this weekend but confidence is too low at this time.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ME...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to 4 AM EST

     Wednesday for MEZ004>006-010-011-031-032.

     Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday

     for MEZ015>017-029-030.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for

     ANZ050>052.

     Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for

     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...21/JS

Short Term...JS

Long Term...JS

Aviation...21/JS/JS

Marine...21/JS/JS

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Caribou ME

418 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

MEZ001>003-030230-

Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-

418 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Far Northern Maine and North

Woods Maine.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A winter storm is expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. Snow amounts

look to remain below four inches, with the least amounts over the

North Woods. Please continue to monitor forecasts for this period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather

conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

$$

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1258 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

MEZ015>017-029-030-020800-

/O.UPG.KCAR.WS.A.0005.251202T1500Z-251203T1200Z/

/O.NEW.KCAR.WS.W.0005.251202T1600Z-251203T1200Z/

Southern Penobscot-Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal

Hancock-Coastal Washington-

Including the cities of Ellsworth, Dedham, Eastport, Amherst,

Orland, Brewer, Great Pond, Aurora, Castine, Bucksport, Orono,

Princeton, Machias, Grand Lake Stream, Wesley, Cherryfield,

Perry, Bangor, Old Town, Bar Harbor, Calais, and Eastbrook

1258 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST

WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and

  8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of Coastal DownEast, Interior DownEast, and

  Penobscot Valley Maine

* WHEN...From 11 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Heavy and wet snow may

  result in isolated power outages, especially along the coast. As

  winds pick up late Tuesday night be prepared for blowing and

  drifting snow over interior Downeast and the Bangor Region. The

  hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday evening and

  Wednesday morning commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow may mix with rain along the coast

  Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening. Snowfall rates look to be

  heaviest right around midnight Tuesday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather

conditions will make travel extremely dangerous. If you must travel,

keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of

an emergency.

The latest road conditions for Maine can be obtained by going to

newengland511.org.

&&

$$

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1258 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

MEZ004>006-010-020800-

/O.NEW.KCAR.WW.Y.0018.251202T1700Z-251203T0900Z/

Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-

Central Piscataquis-

Including the cities of East Millinocket, Sherman, Millinocket,

Greenville, Patten, Medway, Mount Katahdin, Houlton, Hodgdon,

Smyrna Mills, Monson, Baxter St Park, Blanchard, Churchill Dam,

and Chamberlain Lake

1258 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST

WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 5

  inches.

* WHERE...Central Piscataquis, Northern Penobscot, Southeast

  Aroostook, and Northern Piscataquis Counties.

* WHEN...From noon Tuesday to 4 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous

  conditions could impact the Tuesday evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause

primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads and limited

visibilities, and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for Maine can be obtained by going to

newengland511.org.

&&

$$

4:01 PM AST Monday 1 December 2025

Snow, rain, and strong winds are expected mid-week.

Potential snowfall: 15 to 35 cm for inland and elevated areas of the province, especially the Cape Breton Highlands.

Potential rainfall: 30 to 50 mm along the Atlantic coast.

Potential wind gusts: northeasterly 70 to 90 km/h.

Time span: Tuesday afternoon until Wednesday afternoon.

Remarks: Precipitation should fall mostly as rain for most coastal areas as temperatures will be a few degrees above zero.

Snowfall warnings have been issued for areas of northern Nova Scotia and will likely be expanded in subsequent forecasts. 

Similarly, rainfall warnings have been issued for Shelburne and Yarmouth counties and may be expanded as well.

Strong winds may cause tree branches to break and damage utility lines.

Consider adjusting travel plans to avoid the most adverse conditions.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NSStorm.

In effect for:

Sydney Metro and Cape Breton County

4:01 PM AST Monday 1 December 2025

Snow, rain, and strong winds are expected mid-week.

Potential snowfall: 15 to 35 cm for inland and elevated areas of the province, especially the Cape Breton Highlands.

Potential rainfall: 30 to 50 mm along the Atlantic coast.

Potential wind gusts: northeasterly 70 to 90 km/h.

Time span: Tuesday afternoon until Wednesday afternoon.

Remarks: Precipitation should fall mostly as rain for most coastal areas as temperatures will be a few degrees above zero.

Snowfall warnings have been issued for areas of northern Nova Scotia and will likely be expanded in subsequent forecasts. 

Similarly, rainfall warnings have been issued for Shelburne and Yarmouth counties and may be expanded as well.

Strong winds may cause tree branches to break and damage utility lines.

Consider adjusting travel plans to avoid the most adverse conditions.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NSStorm.

In effect for:

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

3:55 PM AST Monday 1 December 2025

Snowfall and wind expected mid-week.

Locations: southeast New Brunswick.

Potential snowfall: 10 to 15 cm.

Time span: Tuesday afternoon until Wednesday afternoon.

Remarks: Snow will develop Tuesday afternoon with the worst conditions expected Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Less snow is expected along the Fundy coast where precipitation will fall partially as rain.

Accumulations of snow and ice may create slippery and hazardous travel conditions.

Consider adjusting travel plans to avoid the most adverse conditions.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NBStorm.

In effect for:

Saint John and County

3:53 PM AST Monday 1 December 2025

Impact Level: High

Forecast Confidence: Moderate

Significant snowfall is expected.

Locations: Annapolis, Kings, Hants, Colchester, Pictou, Antigonish, and Cumberland counties .

Total snowfall: 15 to 25 cm, with locally higher amounts possible.

Time span: late Tuesday afternoon until Wednesday afternoon.

Remarks: Precipitation will fall mainly as snow inland and over higher terrain. A mixture of snow and rain may occur elsewhere, especially along the coast. The snow is expected to be wet and heavy.

Roads and walkways may be very difficult to navigate due to accumulating snow.

Snowfall warnings are issued when significant impacts are expected due to snowfall accumulations.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NSStorm.

In effect for:

Kings County