Hybridstorm's Weather Blog: Dec 18, 2025

Thursday, December 18, 2025

Pre-Christmas Week Wind & Rain Storm Update One

738

FXUS61 KCAR 190046

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

746 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

A warm front crosses the area tonight into Friday. A strong

cold front passes Friday night and Saturday morning, followed by

weak high pressure. Low pressure approaches from the west

Saturday night, passes just to the north, then northeast Sunday,

then exits into the Maritimes Sunday night. High pressure

builds in from the west Monday and Monday night. A warm front

approaches from the southwest Tuesday.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

*Key Messages:

1) Strong to damaging winds are likely along the coast into

Bangor and Interior Downeast Maine Friday. Additional strong

winds are likely later Friday night to Saturday morning,

particularly north and west of the Katahdin Region.

2) Rain is expected across the entire area Friday along with

significant snowmelt. Poor drainage water ponding is likely.

3)Temperatures fall below freezing Friday night. Northern

areas will see a more rapid freeze closer to when precipitation

ends, leading to icy surfaces Saturday morning.

What Has Changed:

* 730 PM: Wind gusts have begun to increase across the forecast

area. The previous forecast remains on track with only minor

updates made to the aviation discussion and TAFs based on

current observations and trends.

* 2 PM: Wind Advisory issued for areas north and west of the

Katahdin region for the second period of stronger wind gusts

Friday night into Saturday morning.

Discussion:

Tonight to Friday:

A strong storm system continues to move across the central

United States and has produced widespread damaging winds from

the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Plains. The upper level

trough currently over the Great Lakes will become negatively

tilted tonight, leading to a deepening surface low across

central Quebec on Friday. Strong warm advection from a 90kt low

level jet ahead of the associated cold front will bring

temperatures into the upper 40s to mid 50s and precipitable

water values around 1 inch. This will lead to a period of

moderate to heavy rain, strong wind gusts, and significant

snowmelt across the area Friday. The strongest wind gusts are

expected along the coast, where gusts to around 60 mph are

expected. There is some uncertainty on how far inland the

strongest winds will make it, and there is potential (30 to 40

percent chance) of Bangor seeing a 60mph wind gust. However,

most areas are expected to peak around 50 to 55mph across

Southern Penobscot County and Interior Downeast Maine. Further

north, cold snowpack should enhance low level stability and

limit mixing of the strongest winds to the surface, with lower

peak winds around 40 mph more likely. Rainfall amounts are

expected to range from around a half inch over the western Saint

John Valley where downsloping of south winds will limit QPF, to

around an inch and a half over the Central Highlands and coastal

hills of Interior Downeast Maine where upslope flow with south

winds will enhance rainfall. This rainfall, combined with up to

about an inch of additional liquid from snowmelt across central

and northern areas, could lead to minor flooding of poor

drainage areas. Antecedent drought conditions should limit the

overall impact on rivers.

Friday Night:

A cold front will sweep through the area Friday evening,

decreasing winds briefly as the low level jet pivots east of the

area. A 10 to 15 degree temperature drop is favored, which is

unlikely to immediately freeze things. However, a secondary

front close behind will drop temperatures below freezing shortly

after. Across the north, the period of time between the end of

precipitation and subfreezing temperatures will be short, which

in addition to ongoing snowmelt will cause icy surfaces by

Saturday morning. Further south the impacts of the refreeze will

be more limited. A brief period of snow is also possible across

far northern Maine, which may accumulation a fresh coating of

snow, especially across westerly upslope areas like the North

Woods. The surface low will continue to intensify as it moves

northeast towards Newfoundland, Canada. The strong pressure

gradient combined with colder air aloft steepening low level

lapse rates will result in another period of strong winds,

particularly for areas north and west of Baxter State Park where

a Wind Advisory has been issued. Most areas are expected to see

peak gusts around 45 to 50 mph, except Central Piscataquis

County where gusts to around 55mph are possible. Some higher

terrain locations may see isolated gusts to 60mph. The strongest

winds will occur around 12z Saturday, or slightly thereafter for

northeastern zones. Much of the lower half of the profile will

be near the dendritic growth zone across the north, so while not

explicitly in the forecast currently, numerous flurries are

anticipated and perhaps some snow showers over upslope areas of

the North Woods and Route 11.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Main story for Saturday is strong gusty winds continuing in the

morning. Have issued a wind advisory across Northern Aroostook

and Somerset, and Northern and Central Piscatiquis County for

Saturday morning, with gusts 45-50 mph. These gusts are the

result of strong low level cold advection coupled with an 55kt

850 jet. Confidence in winds to advisory level is lower across

southern Piscatiquis and Northern Penobscot, so have kept those

out of the advisory for now. Elsewhere, should see 35-40mph

gusts Saturday morning. Otherwise, have northern stream ridging

building in, which should keep things dry. There should be an

increase in cloud cover late in the day ahead of the next

system. Highs on Saturday should be around normal.

A northern stream shortwave approaches Saturday night, then

crosses the area Sunday ahead of the main northern stream trough

to its west, that is in central Quebec by Sunday evening. The

result should be a period of light snow across the north, light

rain across coastal Downeast, and snow changing to rain

elsewhere. The precipitation should mainly start around/after

midnight - depending on exactly how fast the northern stream

ridging ahead of the shortwave exits to the east. Snow

accumulations across the North should range mainly from 1-3" and

up to an inch in the area transitioning from snow to rain. Lows

Saturday night should be around 5-10 degrees above normal. For

highs on Sunday, blended in the NBM25th percentile with the NBM

to reflect that with a morning frontal passage, the NBM often is

too warm on highs. As a result, am forecasting highs around 5

degrees above normal for Saturday.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A northern stream trough passes Sunday night, with some

additional light snow possible mainly over eastern Aroostook.

Northern stream shortwave ridging passes on Monday, followed by

northern stream ridging building in from Monday night into

Tuesday. Associated subsidence should keep things dry, until

possibly late in the day on Tuesday, depending on exactly how

fast the ridge axis exits to the east.

A developing northern stream trough moves into southeastern

Quebec Tuesday night, then pushes south/east into the western

Maritimes by Wednesday evening. The models differ on their

timing with the precipitation with this system - but it appears

there could be a period of snow across all of Northern and

Eastern Maine from late Tuesday possibly into Wednesday. At this

time, there is too much uncertainty on the exact timing,

strength and track of this system to specify any snow amounts or

potential impacts from this system.

Northern stream ridging builds in Wednesday night, so it should

be dry.

Models then differ on how quickly this ridging exits on

Thursday, with slower progress of this ridge keeping Thursday

dry, but faster progression allowing a northern stream shortwave

to approach and bring another round of snow to the region by

late in the day. For now leaned more toward the slower solution,

with pops limited to slight chance to chance.

Temperatures should be near normal Sunday night, then below

normal Monday through Thursday.

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

NEAR TERM:

Tonight:

VFR this evening, becoming MVFR then quickly IFR at all

terminals, from south to north by 6-8z. S winds around 10 kts

gusting to 20 kts, increasing to around 15 kts with gusts to

25-30 kts. LLWS 35 to 45 kts, strongest for northern terminals.

Friday: IFR/LIFR with RA, areas of FG, and strong LLWS at all

terminals. S winds 15-25 kts with gusts to 35 kts at northern

terminals. S winds 20-30 kts with gusts to 45-50 kts at southern

terminals.

Friday Night: IFR/LIFR in the evening gives way to VFR. Winds

decrease initially in the early evening, then shift W and

increase to 15 to 25 kts with gusts to 35-40 kts later during

the evening and overnight.

SHORT TERM:

Saturday...VFR, except for possible MVFR early at northern

terminals. NW winds G25-40KT in the morning, WNW-W winds

G15-20KT in the afternoon.

Saturday night...MVFR or lower probable after midnight. SW-S

winds G15-20KT possible. LLWS possible.

Sunday...MVFR or lower in the morning, probably becoming MVFR

north and VFR south in the afternoon. S-SW winds G15-20KT

possible.

Sunday night...MVFR north and VFR south. WNW-NW winds G20-30KT

probable.

Monday-Monday night...Becoming VFR throughout during the day.

NW winds G15-30KT possible during the day.

Tuesday...VFR in the morning, then MVFR or lower possible in the

afternoon. S-SW winds G15-20KT possible.

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM: Winds and seas initially below advisory levels

quickly ramp up to Gales by around midnight with Storm

conditions developing Friday morning. A Storm Warning is in

effect for all of the waters from 13z Friday through Friday

evening. Wave heights of 16 to 21 feet are expected. Winds

decrease to a strong Gale Friday night into Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM: Gale conditions are expected on the waters

Saturday morning, then are probable on the coastal ocean waters

and possible on the intra-coastal waters Saturday

afternoon/evening. Gales become probable again on the waters

late Saturday night and could continue then into Monday night. A

period of sub-SCA conditions is then probable on Tuesday.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ME...Wind Advisory from midnight Friday night to 11 AM EST Saturday

for MEZ001>004-010.

Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for MEZ015>017.

High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for MEZ029-030.

MARINE...Storm Warning from 8 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ050>052.

Near Term...AES/MWS

Short Term...PM

Long Term...PM

Aviation...AES/MWS/PM

Marine...AES/MWS/PM

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1245 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

MEZ029-030-190600-

/O.CON.KCAR.HW.W.0001.251219T1300Z-251220T0000Z/

Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-

Including the cities of Castine, Bucksport, Ellsworth, Orland,

Perry, Bar Harbor, Eastport, Cherryfield, and Machias

1245 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM EST

FRIDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected.

* WHERE...Coastal Hancock and Coastal Washington Counties.

* WHEN...From 8 AM to 7 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.

Scattered power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult for

high profile vehicles.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1245 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

MEZ001>004-010-190600-

/O.NEW.KCAR.WI.Y.0011.251220T0500Z-251220T1600Z/

Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-

Northern Piscataquis-Central Piscataquis-

Including the cities of Mount Katahdin, Monson, Allagash,

Churchill Dam, Chamberlain Lake, Frenchville, Baker Lake,

Blanchard, Van Buren, Baxter St Park, Caribou, Madawaska, Clayton

Lake, Presque Isle, Greenville, Mars Hill, Ashland, Billy-Jack

Depot, and Fort Kent

1245 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 11 AM EST

SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.

Gusts up to 55mph are possible across Central Piscataquis County.

* WHERE...Central Piscataquis, Northeast Aroostook, Northwest

Aroostook, Northern Piscataquis, and Northern Somerset Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight Friday Night to 11 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree

limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Secure outdoor objects.

10:04 PM AST Thursday 18 December 2025

Impact Level: Moderate

Forecast Confidence: High

Significant rainfall combined with melting snow is expected.

Locations: southern New Brunswick.

Total rainfall: 25 to 40 mm.

Time span: Friday afternoon until early Saturday morning.

Remarks: Rain and mild temperatures will lead to melting snow and minor runoff.

Ensure storm drains and gutters are clear of ice and debris to reduce localized flooding.

Visibility will likely be suddenly reduced at times.

Rainfall warnings are issued when significant impacts are expected due to rainfall amounts.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NBStorm.

For more information about the alerting program, please visit: Colour-coded Weather Alerts.

In effect for:

Saint John and County

10:02 PM AST Thursday 18 December 2025

Impact Level: Moderate

Forecast Confidence: High

Unseasonably warm temperature and strong winds are expected.

Locations: southern and south-central New Brunswick.

Wind gusts: southerly 70 to 90 km/h, except gusts to 110 km/h along the Fundy coast.

Time span: late Friday afternoon until early Saturday morning.

Remarks: strong southerly winds will switch to the west Saturday morning and pick up in intensity during the day.

Strong winds may cause tree branches to break and damage utility lines.

Check transit, ferry, or flight statuses well in advance, as delays or disruptions could occur.

Ensure gutters and storm drains are clear of snow, ice, and other debris.

Secure loose outdoor items that could be blown around by strong winds.

Wind warnings are issued when there is a significant risk of damaging winds.