Halloween Horror Update Two - Hurricane Melissa, Now A Category One Extratropical Storm, Races Through Newfoundland Island And Into The North Atlantic

Land Zone

Newfoundland

Avalon Peninsula Southeast

Avalon Peninsula Southwest

Marine Zone

Maritime Waters

Laurentian Fan

Newfoundland Waters

East Coast - Cape St. Francis and south

Northern Grand Banks

South Coast - Cape St. Mary's and east

Southeastern Grand Banks

Southwestern Grand Banks

The next (intermediate) information statement will be issued by 12:30 

a.m. NDT followed by the next full statement by 3:30 a.m. NDT. 

Post-Tropical Storm Melissa continues moving northeastward toward the Newfoundland marine district then passing close to the southeastern Avalon Peninsula late tonight into early Saturday. A period of heavy rain, strong winds along with heavy surf is expected. 

1. Summary of basic information at 9:30 p.m. NDT. 

Location: 43.8 North 55.8 West. 

About 383 kilometres southwest of Cape Race. 

Maximum sustained winds: 130 kilometres per hour/80 mph. 

Present movement: northeast at 80 kilometres per hour. 

Minimum central pressure: 973 millibars. 

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary. 

Melissa is now post-tropical. The storm will be passing near or 

south of the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland later tonight. If 

it ends up tracking further northwest, heavy rain and stronger winds 

may be felt on parts of the Avalon. There will be large waves and heavy surf for the southern coast of Newfoundland continuing on Saturday, primarily from the large non-tropical low and to a lesser extent, from Melissa. 

a. Wind. 

There is a very slight chance that parts of the Avalon could be within the storm circulation for a brief period and therefore would see some high 

wind gusts during that time. If the centre of the storm passes south 

and east of land (which is the official forecast), the highest winds 

would remain offshore. Regardless, gusts reaching 90 km/h are 

possible for parts of the southern and eastern coastline of the 

Avalon Peninsula overnight tonight. Strong southwest winds will also 

persist across the region on Saturday. 

b. Rainfall. 

With Melissa expected to track near or just offshore of the Avalon 

Peninsula, a short period of heavy rain is possible over a 3 to 6 

hour window tonight. At the larger scale, there will be some 

enhancement of moisture associated with the non-tropical low 

pressure system (whose centre will track up the St. Lawrence River 

Valley) giving a period of heavy rain from southeastern Ontario 

towards Newfoundland and Labrador. 

c. Surge/Waves. 

For southeastern Newfoundland, large waves are building from the southwest this evening, peaking early Saturday with breaking significant wave heights of 5 to 7 metres forecast. These waves combined with the possibility of storm surge may cause higher than normal water levels particularly along southwest-facing shorelines in the Burin and Avalon Peninsulas beginning late overnight tonight and continuing into Sunday morning. 

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary. 

Hurricane force wind warnings are in effect for the southeastern half of Laurentian Fan and the Grand Banks. Storm force wind warnings are in effect for eastern Banquereau, northwestern Laurentian Fan, East Coast - Cape St. Francis and south, and Funk Island Bank. Offshore waters could see significant wave heights reach 10 metres south of Melissa's track. 

Forecaster: Fogarty/March

Please continue to monitor alerts issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre and forecasts issued by Environment Canada.

For more comprehensive information about track tables and forecast rationale, please see the Technical Discussion

FXCN31 CWHX 010000

Tropical cyclone technical information statement issued by the

Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 8.53 PM NDT

Friday 31 October 2025.

The next statement will be issued by 3.30 AM NDT

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 9.30 PM NDT, post-tropical storm Melissa was located near latitude

43.8 N and longitude 55.8 W, about 207 nautical miles or 383 km

southwest of Cape Race. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 70

knots (130 km/h) and central pressure at 973 MB. Melissa is moving

northeast at 43 knots (80 km/h).

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date     time     lat    lon   MSLP  Max wind

          NDT                    MB  kts  kmh

Oct 31  9.30 PM  43.8N  55.8W   973   70  130 post-tropical

Nov 01  3.30 AM  46.8N  52.4W   971   65  120 post-tropical

Nov 01  9.30 AM  49.8N  48.4W   968   60  111 post-tropical

Nov 01  3.30 PM  51.5N  45.9W   965   60  111 post-tropical

Nov 01  9.30 PM  53.1N  43.1W   964   60  111 post-tropical

Nov 02  2.30 AM  54.0N  40.5W   962   55  102 post-tropical

3. Technical discussion

A. Analysis

Now post-tropical Melissa continues accelerating toward the

northeast. Melissa is over ssts near 20 degrees c and deep convection

has shifted to the eastern part of the circulation. Maximum sustained

winds are estimated as 70 kts and motion is estimated as northeast

around 43 kts.

B. Prognostic

Melissa will continue to accelerate northeastward while being steered

between a broad upper trough over Eastern North America and a ridge

of high pressure over the central Atlantic. Post-tropical Melissa is

forecast to weaken slowly (in terms of wind speeds) but a gradual

lowering of central pressure tonight is forecast due to baroclinic

effects.

C. Predicted wind radii (NM)

Time          gales           storms            hurricane

         NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW

01/00Z  195 270 195 140   100 125  80   0     0  75  25   0

01/06Z  190 305 225 130    90 185  80   0     0 100   0   0

01/12Z  220 350 270 140    90 145  80   0     0   0   0   0

01/18Z  210 350 260 160    70  90  65   0     0   0   0   0

02/00Z  210 340 250 160    60  70  60   0     0   0   0   0

02/06Z  180 320 250 170    50  70  60   0     0   0   0   0

END/FOGARTY/MARCH