The Blizzard Of 2026 Winter Storm Hernando

885

FXUS61 KCAR 230029

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

729 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

-Evening Update: Some minor adjustments were made to QPF and

 snowfall based on the latest 18z guidance and obs, further

 trimming the QPF and snow by up to an inch along and northwest

 of I-95. Increased max gust wording slightly in the warning

 area to mention 55mph gusts. A few gusts to 60mph cannot be

 ruled out, especially along the Washington County coast.

 Depending on trends overnight, the blizzard warning may need to

 be expanded to include interior Downeast forecast zones,

 although winds over these zones are expected to be more

 marginal for blizzard conditions compared to the coast. Minor

 updates were also made to the aviation discussion, but the

 forecast largely remains on track.

-Decreased snow totals slightly along I-95 from Bangor to

 Medway to Houlton, and points northwest.

-Increased blowing snow areawide, but especially Downeast, and

 issued blizzard warnings for the coast.

-Increased confidence in a clipper system moving in Wednesday.

-Potential for heavy snow showers in the north Thursday.

-Increased confidence in another winter storm moving in Friday.

 &&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) A significant winter storm Monday into Monday night with

heavy snow and blowing snow. Blizzard conditions likely along

the coast Monday afternoon into early evening.

2) Clipper system Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday will

bring snow to the region, with possible travel impacts expected

for the Thursday morning commute.

3) Potential for periods of heavy snow showers in the north

Thursday afternoon, reducing visibility.

4) A chance for a winter storm Friday, with both rain and

accumulating snowfall possible, potentially impacting travel.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A significant winter storm Monday into Monday night with heavy

snow and blowing snow. Blizzard conditions likely along the

coast Monday afternoon into early evening.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Low pressure rapidly intensifies tonight as it moves northeast

off the southern New England coast, then maintains its strength

as a strong low pressure system as it tracks northeast through

the southern Gulf of Maine during the day Monday. This looks

like a classic higher-end Nor`easter, with strong northeast

winds and the threat of blizzard conditions mainly along the

coast. Snow starts roughly mid-morning Monday along the coast

and over Downeast, then slowly spreads north through the day,

not reaching Northern/Central Aroostook until late afternoon or

early evening. Snowfall rates will reach around 0.75 to 1 inch

per hour Downeast in the afternoon to early evening, and coupled

with sustained winds 25-35 mph and gusts 40-55 mph, blizzard

conditions are possible. Feel the greatest threat is for the

immediate coast, and have issued blizzard warning for these

areas due to the highest confidence there. The winds will be

strong enough for blizzard in the Bangor region, but just not

convinced the snow will be falling hard enough to lead to a true

blizzard this far north/northwest, so have just a winter storm

warning for these areas a bit further inland from Bangor

northeast to Northern Washington County. There will be a

northwest edge to the heaviest 8-12 inch snow area, and there is

still some uncertainty where this sets up. Feel confident in the

8-12 inch totals for Central/Southern Washington County, but

somewhere west of that amounts could drop off pretty rapidly.

Some of the latest guidance is trending a bit further south/east

with the heavier snow cutoff line, and trended forecast slightly

in this less snowy direction. Totals will drop pretty rapidly

from 8-12 inches Downeast to nearly nothing in the western North

Woods. Winds will be present through the area though, with gusts

30-40 mph in the north and 40-55 mph Downeast. Blowing snow can

be expected throughout, but it should be worse the further

southeast you go. Falling snow will taper off from west to east

Monday night. Still some blowing snow persisting though into the

day Tuesday, but not as bad as Monday afternoon/evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Clipper system Wednesday afternoon into early

Thursday will bring snow to the region, with possible travel

impacts expected for the Thursday morning commute.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Clipper system originating in Saskatchewan moves into the region

Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Low intensifies over the

Great Lakes region Wednesday morning, and then occludes over

the region during the afternoon. Decent pressure gradient

associated with this system that could result in some gusty

winds along the coast. Predominantly snow expected to fall,

with a potential for some rain/snow mix to occur along thew

immediate Downeast coast. Guidance has a few inches of snowfall

accumulating Downeast and the coast. Seems like models have been

bringing this system a little closer to the coast, thus

increasing accumulation totals a bit. Precipitation expected to

move out by Thursday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Potential for periods of heavy snow showers in

the north Thursday afternoon, reducing visibility.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...

Once clipper system moves out of the region by Thursday morning,

little shortwave disturbances linger in the far northern region

of Maine. There is decent low level lapse rates, lift, and some

snow squall parameters. This being said, plenty of dry air

aloft, and only looking at moisture in the lower 850mb or so.

Not very confident in squall criteria being met, but could see a

quick burst of snowfall during the afternoon. Not anticipating

much in terms of accumulations. Could see a quick burst of half

an inch to an inch. Reduced visibility while showers move

through.

KEY MESSAGE 4...A chance for a winter storm Friday, with both

rain and accumulating snowfall possible, potentially impacting

travel.

Models are in agreement that another winter storm system could

move into the area on Friday. Models are disagreeing with the

exact track of the storm, with the GFS trending the storm a bit

more north, while the ECWMF keeps the system along the coast.

These separate tracks could result in vastly different

solutions, as the GFS has a potential for significant snowfall

accumulations throughout the region, and the ECWMF just have a

few inches Downeast. There does seem to be agreement for the

region to be under the left exit region of a 250mb jet on

Friday, which would support further snowfall. Overall, continue

to monitor the forecasts for updates to this system. At the very

least, anticipating some travel impacts to occur early Friday

into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Tonight...VFR with light N winds early, increasing to about 10

to 15 kts closer to 12z Downeast at BGR/BHB.

Monday and Monday Night...Deteriorating conditions from south

to north. Snow begins at BGR/BHB roughly 15z, slowly spreading

north and reaching PQI/CAR around 22z. Snow continues into

Monday evening, tapering off from west to east overnight. Expect

IFR or lower BGR/BHB especially due to visibility which will be

restricted in heavy/blowing snow. MVFR/IFR for northern TAF

sites Monday night. Winds from the northeast 15-25 kts with

gusts around 40 kts for BGR, 20-30 kts with gusts up to 45 kts

for BHB, and about 10-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts for northern

TAF sites from HUL north. Winds peak at most sites Monday

evening. Possible LLWS Monday, but surface winds will also be

strong so decided not to put LLWS in TAFs.

Tuesday...Possible MVFR north, VFR south. NW wind 10-15 kts with

gusts 25 kts. Some lingering blowing snow possible.

Tuesday Night...Generally VFR. W wind around 5-10 kts.

Wednesday...MVFR/IFR possible by the afternoon due to snow.

Rain/snow possible along the immediate coast. SW wind becoming

SE around 5 to 10 kt. Gusts to 15 kts.

Wednesday Night...Continued MVFR/IFR conditions, as snow moves

eastwards. Light and variable winds.

Thursday...MVFR early, possibly becoming VFR. Chance for

periods of heavier snow showers to develop at northern terminals

during the afternoon. W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts to 15 kts.

Thursday Night - Friday... Potential for a winter storm to move

into the region. MVFR/IFR possible. Currently thinking snow in

the north, and potential for mixed precip types southeast. W

winds overnight, shifting E by daybreak at, and shifting back to

W by evening. Gusts up to 20 kts possible.

&&

.MARINE...

High confidence in storm force NE winds Monday/Monday evening.

Seas build to around 15 ft. Conditions gradually improve during

the day Tuesday with NW winds down to small craft levels in the

afternoon.

Small Craft conditions expected over the outer waters Tuesday

night into early Wednesday morning. Small Craft conditions

expected again Wednesday into Thursday, Friday into Friday

night, and Saturday night into Sunday. Light freezing spay

Tuesday night. Chance for rain/snow Wednesday, and again

Thursday night through Friday. Winds from the NW Tuesday night,

shifting S by Wednesday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday

     for MEZ005-006-011-031.

     Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for

     MEZ015>017-032.

     Blizzard Warning from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for

     MEZ029-030.

MARINE...Storm Warning from 6 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050-

     051.

     Storm Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Monday for ANZ052.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ASB/TF

AVIATION...ASB/TF

MARINE...ASB/TF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

703 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

MEZ005-006-011-031-230815-

/O.CON.KCAR.WW.Y.0009.260223T1500Z-260224T1200Z/

Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-Central Penobscot-Southern

Piscataquis-

Including the cities of Guilford, Millinocket, Patten, Lincoln,

Dover-Foxcroft, Hodgdon, East Millinocket, Milo, Springfield,

Houlton, Sherman, Smyrna Mills, Medway, and Howland

703 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7

AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 5

  inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Penobscot, Southern Piscataquis, Southeast

  Aroostook, and Central Penobscot Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow

  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions

  could impact the Monday evening and Tuesday morning commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause

primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads and limited

visibilities, and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for Maine can be obtained by going to

newengland511.org.

&&

$$

MWS

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

703 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

MEZ015>017-032-230815-

/O.CON.KCAR.WS.W.0004.260223T1500Z-260224T1200Z/

Southern Penobscot-Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Northern

Washington-

Including the cities of Brewer, Old Town, Orono, Danforth,

Topsfield, Dedham, Aurora, Vanceboro, Grand Lake Stream, Bangor,

Eastbrook, Princeton, Wesley, Amherst, Great Pond, and Calais

703 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM

EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 5 and

  10 inches, with the highest totals east of Bangor. Winds gusting

  as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Washington, Central Washington, Interior Hancock,

  and Southern Penobscot Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow

  will significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions

  could impact the Monday evening and Tuesday morning commutes.

  Isolated power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather

conditions will make travel extremely dangerous. If you must travel,

keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of

an emergency.

The latest road conditions for Maine can be obtained by going to

newengland511.org.

&&

$$

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Gray ME

346 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

MEZ023>028-230900-

/O.CON.KGYX.BZ.W.0001.260223T1200Z-260224T0300Z/

Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal

Waldo-

Including the cities of Thomaston, Bowdoin, Rockport, Belfast,

South Portland, Alna, Westbrook, Arrowsic, Jefferson, Kittery,

Old Orchard Beach, Lincolnville, Wiscasset, Cape Elizabeth,

Rockland, Boothbay Harbor, Saco, Bristol, Waldoboro, Camden,

Whitefield, Bremen, Bath, Dresden, Owls Head, Hope, Newcastle,

Searsmont, Brunswick, Yarmouth, Phippsburg, Bowdoinham, Topsham,

Northport, Biddeford, Damariscotta, Appleton, and Portland

346 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST

MONDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations

  between 6 and 10 inches. Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph possible...

  especially along the immediate coast.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southwest Maine.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 10 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Whiteout conditions are expected with visibilities below

  1/4 mile due to falling and blowing snow.  The greatest potential

  for blizzard conditions will exist late morning through afternoon

  Monday. The hazardous conditions will arrive during the Monday

  morning commute and will continue through the evening commute.

  Strong winds will down tree limbs and blow around unsecured

  objects. A Few trees and power lines could be downed. The power

  outage threat is elevated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel,

have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with

your vehicle. The latest road conditions can be obtained by going to

newengland511.org

Persons should consider delaying all travel. Motorists should use

extreme caution if travel is absolutely necessary.

&&

$$

10:47 PM AST Sunday 22 February 2026

Moderate snowfall, strong winds, and blowing snow possible.

Total snowfall amounts: 5 to 10 cm.

Maximum wind gusts: northeasterly 50 to 70 km/h, except near 80 over exposed areas of the Acadian peninsula.

Locations: parts of central and eastern New Brunswick.

Time span: Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

Remarks: An intense low pressure system forecast to track across Nova Scotia Monday night is expected to bring hazardous winter conditions to portions of New Brunswick. The worst conditions are currently expected to be along the Fundy coast and through southeastern New Brunswick where a Yellow Level - Winter Storm Warning is in effect. 

Rapid snowfall accumulation may make travel slow or hazardous. Roads and walkways could become slippery and difficult to navigate. Strong winds accompanying the snow will cause reduced visibility in blowing and drifting snow. Blowing snow advisories may be required as this event draws nearer.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NBStorm.

In effect for:

Fredericton and Southern York County

10:41 PM AST Sunday 22 February 2026

Impact Level: Moderate

Forecast Confidence: High

Significant snowfall is expected.

Total snowfall: 15 to 20 cm, possibly higher in a few locations.

Locations: parts of southern and eastern New Brunswick.

Time span: Monday mid-day until Tuesday morning.

Remarks: Heavy snowfall will be accompanied by gusty northeasterly winds, leading to reduced visibility at times in both falling and blowing snow.

Travel will likely be challenging. Visibility will likely be reduced at times.

Take frequent breaks and avoid strain when clearing snow.

Snowfall warnings are issued when significant impacts are expected due to snowfall accumulations.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NBStorm.

In effect for:

Miramichi and area

10:39 PM AST Sunday 22 February 2026

Impact Level: Moderate

Forecast Confidence: High

Hazardous winter conditions are expected.

Total snowfall: 20 to 30 cm, with locally higher amounts possible.

Locations: southern New Brunswick.

Maximum wind gusts: northeasterly 70 km/h, except 90 over exposed areas.

Time span: Monday morning until early Tuesday.

Remarks: Very strong northeasterly winds accompanying the snow will significantly reduce visibility at times in blowing snow.

Travel will likely be challenging. Visibility will likely be suddenly reduced to near zero at times. Road closures are possible.

Consider postponing non-essential travel and outdoor activities until conditions improve.

Winter Storm Warnings are issued when multiple types of severe winter weather (such as snow, freezing rain, wind and rain) are expected or occurring.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NBStorm.

In effect for:

Saint John and County

10:18 PM AST Sunday 22 February 2026

Elevated water levels and wave activity are possible.

Locations: Atlantic coastlines of Shelburne, Queens, Lunenburg and Halifax counties.

Time span: during high tide later Monday evening.

Maximum wave heights: 5 to 7 metres, breaking upon approach to shore.

Remarks: An intense low pressure system will bring very strong northeast winds and high waves to the above regions later on Monday. Storm surge combined with wave action near high tide may raise water levels above the highest astronomical tide.

People in coastal areas should monitor conditions closely in case they begin to worsen.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NSStorm.

In effect for:

Coastline of Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

10:09 PM AST Sunday 22 February 2026

Impact Level: Moderate

Forecast Confidence: High

Significant snowfall and strong winds are expected.

Snowfall: 15 to 25 cm.

Maximum wind gusts: northeasterly up to 80 km/h.

Time span: from noon Monday until later Monday evening.

Remarks: Visibility will be significantly reduced at times in blowing snow. Snow is expected to changeover to rain later Monday evening or early Tuesday morning.

Roads and walkways will likely be difficult to navigate due to accumulating snow. Local utility outages are possible.

Snowfall warnings are issued when significant impacts are expected due to snowfall accumulations.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NSStorm.

In effect for:

Sydney Metro and Cape Breton County

10:05 PM AST Sunday 22 February 2026

Impact Level: Moderate

Forecast Confidence: High

Hazardous winter conditions are expected.

Total snowfall: 20 to 30 cm, with locally higher amounts possible.

Maximum wind gusts: northeasterly 70 km/h, except 90 over exposed areas.

Time span: Monday morning until early Tuesday morning.

Remarks:  Strong winds accompanying the snow will reduce visibility at times in blowing snow. Snow is expected to transition to rain along the Atlantic coast Monday evening.

Travel will likely be challenging. Visibility will likely be suddenly reduced to near zero at times.

Prepare for some disruptions to transportation, services, and utilities.

Winter Storm Warnings are issued when multiple types of severe winter weather (such as snow, freezing rain, wind and rain) are expected or occurring.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #NSStorm.

In effect for:

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

10:04 PM AST Sunday 22 February 2026

Impact Level: Moderate

Forecast Confidence: High

Hazardous winter conditions are expected.

Total snowfall: 15 to 25 cm, with locally higher amounts possible.

Maximum wind gusts: northeast 70 km/h, except 90 km/h over exposed areas. 

Time span: Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

Remarks: Visibility will be reduced significantly at times in blowing snow.

Visibility will likely be suddenly reduced to near zero at times. Local utility outages are likely.

Consider postponing non-essential travel and outdoor activities until conditions improve.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to PEstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on X using #PEStorm.

In effect for:

Queens County P.E.I.