Incoming Extreme Cold Locally As Potentially Historic Winter Storm Fern Forms In The Eastern USA

833

FXUS61 KCAR 230109

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

809 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

-Updated aviation discussion.

-New uncertainty for snow squalls Friday.

-Extreme Cold Watch upgraded to Extreme Cold Warning. Extreme

 Cold Warning expanded to southern Piscataquis, central

 Penobscot, and Northern Washington counties.

-Cold Weather Advisory issued for Downeast Maine and the Bangor

 region.

-Heavy Freezing Spray Warning issued for the waters.

-Increasing confidence in a winter storm Sunday night through

 Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A couple rounds of heavy snow showers or squalls may cause

  brief whiteouts and result in slick travel Friday.

- Frigid arctic air with extremely dangerous wind chills this

  weekend.

- Increasing chance of a winter storm Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A couple rounds of heavy snow showers or

squalls may cause brief whiteouts and result in slick travel

Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Friday the threat of snow squalls is a little more uncertain

today compared to last forecast package. An arctic cold front

will be approaching from the northwest in Quebec in the

afternoon. Timing remains relatively on track but seeing some

hi-res model timing differences between RRFS/HRRR/NAM3km and the

global models. Expecting mostly sunny morning and midday that

will allow for some surface CAPE reaching 30-60j/kg. Very

favorable 925-850mb lapse rates at 9-9.5C/km with 850-700mb very

favorable at 8-8.5C/km. In the afternoon solid agreement of

negative Theta E profiles showing significantly steep low level

lapse rates. Lastly, seeing modeled total surface wind

divergence mainly positive with some pockets of negative in the

Central Highlands to Downeast coast. Negative would indicate

surface wind convergence which is favorable for snow squalls.

When you put all these parameters together we are seeing

elevated BTV snow squall parameter values from NAM/GFS/ECMWF of

1-3 in the southern half of the CWA but some differences with

GFS being more widespread. Lastly, modeled soundings show

uncertainty of how strong the winds will be aloft in the mixed

layer. For now will continue the threat of heavy snow showers

and squalls into Friday. However, having to significantly

overhaul the POPs since NBM struggles with winter convection in

Maine.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Frigid arctic air with extremely dangerous wind

chills this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

The pressure gradient between the exiting low to our northeast

and the high building in from the west persists through Saturday

resulting in winds remaining elevated throughout the day. This

will contribute to the continuation of very cold wind chills

with the worst conditions right around daybreak where the wind

will make the air feel like -30 to -40 degrees in the north

and -20 to -30 over southern and coastal areas. Wind chills

will improve slightly throughout the day as temperatures warm

but will stay well below 0.

Saturday night will feature the coldest temperatures of the

weekend but wind chills should be slightly better as winds will

be lighter. Some uncertainty still remains as to whether or not

the high will move in quick enough for the winds to become

nearly calm and to allow some decoupling, sending low

temperatures plummeting. Model soundings do not show a strong

decoupling signal but clear skies mean that any localized areas

that are more sheltered from the wind may see temperatures go

below guidance.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Increasing chance of a winter storm Sunday

night into Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...

Models are continuing to converge on a winter storm that will

redevelop off the Mid-Atlantic coast before moving northeastward.

Many ensemble members show the storm making it into the Gulf of

Maine where it will strengthen and bring snowfall to much of

the area. Some other ensemble solutions want to track the storm

more easterly off the southern New England coast where our area

would receive only a few inches at most. The track of the storm

will depend heavily on the evolution of the high over our north

during the day on Sunday. A weaker high will allow the storm to

move up along our coast while a stronger high will keep it

further south. Regardless, the greatest totals from this storm

are likely to be found in the Downeast and Bangor regions.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Variable conditions with any snow showers through early morning.

Otherwise, VFR/MVFR tonight. Variable conditions with snow

showers, possible snow squalls, Friday. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR

Friday. West/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20

knots tonight. West/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up

to 20 to 25 knots, becoming west/northwest Friday.

Friday Night...VFR. Wind Shift in the evening. NW winds 10-20kt

with gusts up to 30kt possible.

Saturday through Sunday...VFR. W/NW winds 10 to 15 kts with

gusts 25 to 30 kts Saturday, diminishing to 5 to 10 kts Saturday

night and around 5 kts Sunday.

Sunday night through Monday...Becoming MVFR and likely IFR at

southern terminals with light snow. VFR/MVFR and possibly IFR

Monday at northern terminals with light snow. N/NE winds

increasing to 5 to 10 kts.

Monday night through Tuesday...IFR/MVFR conditions improve to

VFR/MVFR. N/NW winds 5 to 10 kts Monday night becoming 10 to 15

kts Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...

A Gale Warning is in effect through 1PM Saturday for the Coastal

Waters out 25nm. Westerly winds through Friday evening shifting

Northwest Friday evening lasting into Saturday. 25-35kt with

gusts up to 45kt and seas 6-9ft. A Gale Warning is in effect

from 6PM Friday till 7AM Saturday for the Intra-Coastal Waters.

Here we expect NW winds 15-25kt with gusts up to 35kt and seas

3-5ft. For all the waters a Heavy Freezing Spray Advisory in

effect from 10PM Friday till 10AM Sunday. Heavy freezing spray

at a rate of 2 cm per hour or greater expected, and may rapidly

accumulate on vessels. Rapid ice accretion on decks and

superstructures may result in a catastrophic loss of stability.

Gales decrease to SCA conditions Saturday night with below SCA

conditions for both winds and seas Sunday morning. Winds

increase to gales Sunday night and may not decrease to SCA

criteria until Tuesday but even then there will be borderline

gale wind gusts. Seas 6 to 10 ft early Saturday will decrease to

1 to 2 ft Sunday before increasing to 6 to 10 ft Monday night.

Heavy freezing spray Saturday morning with moderate freezing

spray through Monday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ME...Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday for

     MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday for

     MEZ015>017-029-030.

MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ050-051.

     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 10 PM Friday to 10 AM EST

     Sunday for ANZ050>052.

     Gale Warning from 6 PM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ052.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SM/JS

AVIATION...CN/SM/JS

MARINE...SM/JS

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Caribou ME

121 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032-232330-

Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-

Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-

Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Piscataquis-

Northern Washington-

121 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

...EXTREME COLD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine, Far

Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine, North Woods Maine and Penobscot

Valley Maine.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Heavy snow showers or snow squalls are possible this evening which

may cause brief whiteout conditions and slick roads.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the

Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Extreme Cold Warning.

Heavy snow showers or snow squalls are possible Friday afternoon and

evening which may cause brief whiteout conditions and slick roads.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather

conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

$$

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1244 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

MEZ001>006-010-230800-

/O.UPG.KCAR.EC.A.0001.260124T0600Z-260124T1500Z/

/O.NEW.KCAR.EC.W.0001.260124T0600Z-260124T1500Z/

Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-

Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-

Central Piscataquis-

Including the cities of Ashland, East Millinocket, Baxter St

Park, Houlton, Van Buren, Churchill Dam, Smyrna Mills, Baker

Lake, Frenchville, Allagash, Chamberlain Lake, Greenville,

Hodgdon, Patten, Presque Isle, Clayton Lake, Medway, Millinocket,

Caribou, Blanchard, Mount Katahdin, Mars Hill, Billy-Jack Depot,

Madawaska, Sherman, Fort Kent, and Monson

1244 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

...EXTREME COLD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 40 below expected.

* WHERE...Central Piscataquis, Northern Penobscot, Southeast

  Aroostook, Northeast Aroostook, Northwest Aroostook, Northern

  Piscataquis, and Northern Somerset Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 40 below zero

  could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Dress in layers including a hat, face mask, and gloves if you must

go outside.

&&

$$

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1244 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

MEZ015>017-029-030-230800-

/O.NEW.KCAR.CW.Y.0004.260124T0600Z-260124T1500Z/

Southern Penobscot-Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal

Hancock-Coastal Washington-

Including the cities of Aurora, Amherst, Bucksport, Brewer,

Orono, Orland, Eastbrook, Calais, Machias, Dedham, Bangor, Perry,

Castine, Wesley, Grand Lake Stream, Bar Harbor, Princeton, Great

Pond, Eastport, Old Town, Ellsworth, and Cherryfield

1244 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills as low as 28 below expected.

* WHERE...Coastal Hancock, Coastal Washington, Central Washington,

  Interior Hancock, and Southern Penobscot Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 30 below zero

  could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 15 minutes.

  Frostbite and hypothermia will occur if unprotected skin is

  exposed to these temperatures.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a

hat, and gloves.

&&