First Nor'Easter Of The Season Forming Update One

628

FXUS61 KCAR 242335

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

735 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

- 7 PM Update to the Aviation section with the issuance of the

  00z TAFs. Raised evening temperatures due to current

  observations and trends.

- Increased confidence in forecast winds.

- Still low confidence in rain totals.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) A Noreaster will impact at least Downeast Maine this

weekend into Monday, bringing gusty winds, high surf, and

periods of rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A Noreaster will impact at least Downeast Maine

this weekend into Monday, bringing gusty winds, high surf, and

periods of rain.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

We are still expecting a strong Noreaster impacting our area

from Friday through the weekend and into Monday. However, we

will be on the far northern fringe of the Noreaster with the

center staying south of Massachusetts through Sunday, and

impacts this far north through Sunday will be much less than

areas further south. Here is what to expect for the various

components of the storm:

Periods of Rain...Rain chances will be far greater Downeast than

northern areas for the storm, with rain possibly developing

late Friday night, but more likely on Saturday, and persisting

off and on through Monday. There is still substantial

uncertainty on the northern extent of the rain. Most likely

Downeast up to Bangor will see periods of rain through the

weekend, but totals could be anywhere from one quarter inch to

two inches, as there is a ton of uncertainty. Even with the

higher totals, we would not expect flooding. Sunday night and

Monday, a much weaker version of the Noreaster finally lifts

north and tracks into the Gulf of Maine, at which point rain

chances finally increase over the whole area. That said, not

expecting anything heavy.

Gusty Winds...Winds from the northeast will increase Friday

night into Saturday, remain gusty through Sunday, then decrease

a bit into Monday. Winds will be stronger the further south you

go, with gusts topping out around only 20 mph in Northern Maine

this weekend, but 25-35 mph Bangor and Downeast. We don`t

anticipate impacts from the wind other than maybe a very

isolated outage Downeast.

High Surf...Seas near the shore will be fairly rough with 5-9 ft

seas, much of it as a longer period south/southeast swell. We

are not expecting impactful coastal flooding, though waves

breaking on the rocks will be hazardous for any onlookers.

Conditions should be a bit more hazardous for coastal Hancock

than coastal Washington. Conditions slowly ease Sunday night

into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Tonight-Friday night...VFR across all terminals. Brief MVFR/IFR

possible late tonight in patchy fog valley fog, primarily at

KHUL/KPQI though all terminals have a chance for brief vis

decreases. Chance is too low for mention in 00z TAFs. Light and

variable winds, then NE winds increase at Downeast terminals

5-15 kts on Friday.

Saturday - Monday...VFR north, except MVFR possible Monday.

VFR/MVFR Downeast with rain likely at times. Across northern

areas, N/NE winds 5 to 15 knots. Across Downeast areas, N/NE

winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to around 20-30 knots

Saturday/Sunday, with winds diminishing a bit Sunday night and

Monday back to 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...

Northeast winds increase to Gales late tonight into Friday,

winds peaking around 45 knots in the outer waters and around 40

knots in the coastal waters by Friday night. A Gale Warning is

now in effect from 2AM on Friday in outer waters and from 11AM

in coastal waters and will persist through at least 8PM Sunday

night. Gales remain possible in the intracoastal waters, where a

Small Craft Advisory is in effect. Peak wave heights in the

outer waters will be around 11ft to 16ft, and around 7ft to 12ft

in the coastal waters. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for

coastal Hancock County where large waves could pose a rip

current risk and impact people on rock outcrops.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ME...High Surf Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for

     MEZ029.

MARINE...Gale Warning from 2 AM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ050-

     051.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for

     ANZ052.

     Gale Warning from 11 AM Friday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ080-

     081.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TF

AVIATION...AES/TF/ARL

Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

430 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Valid 00Z Fri Sep 25 2026 - 00Z Sun Sep 27 2026

...A strong coastal low will bring coastal flooding, rip currents, wind

gusts, and heavy rain along the East Coast into the weekend..

...Heavy rainfall/flooding threat from Arizona to the central High Plains

through tonight will begin to gradually lessen on Friday...

An upper-level trough digging into the eastern U.S. will interact with a

cool air mass sliding east into the western Atlantic to develop a deep

coastal cyclone just off the East Coast over the next few days.  The

cool air will be moistened and lifted by the digging upper trough as a

large high pressure system feeds that cool air across the still warm

waters of the western Atlantic.  The result will be a rather strong

cyclone that will bring widespread strong to gale-force winds up the East

Coast of the U.S. through the next few days.  Considerable uncertainty

remains regarding this cyclone's track, but models agree that the cyclone

center will approach and then stall just off southeastern New England

Friday and into the weekend.  Much of Friday could remain rain free along

the East Coast but cool and damp northeasterly winds will continue to

strengthen as the storm deepens offshore.  Steady rain may hold off until

Friday night across southeastern New England before spreading gradually

westward into southern New England by Saturday morning.  Additionally,

expect wind gusts in excess of 45 mph, moderate to major coastal flooding,

high surf, rip currents, and beach erosion.  Please see the latest WPC Key

Messages for this system at wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

Meanwhile, monsoonal moisture across the Four Corners will be lifted ahead

of an upper-level trough moving onshore into Baja California, bringing a

moderate risk of flash flooding over south-central New Mexico and a slight

risk of flash flooding through the southern Rockies to the southern High

Plains through tonight.  The associated plume of moisture will gradually

shift east together with the upper trough, allowing the heavy rain threat

to gradually diminish on Friday for the southern Rockies to the southern

High Plains.  However, a slight risk of excessive rainfall is forecast for

southeastern New Mexico due to saturated soils from previous

rainfall.  Friday into Saturday morning should see moderate to locally

heavy rain developing and meandering over the central Plains toward Iowa

and Missouri ahead of a low-pressure wave and a stationary front.

A strong Pacific shortwave will deepen as it moves into the Pacific

Northwest late today.  The strong dynamics associated with this system will

result in widespread showers across Washington and Oregon reaching the

coast later today and through the interior Pacific Northwest on Friday.

With the arrival of cooler air, wet snow may occur over the highest

elevations within the northern Rockies and Cascades.

Kong

Coastal Hazard Message

National Weather Service Caribou ME

226 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

MEZ029-250800-

/O.CON.KCAR.SU.Y.0002.260925T1200Z-260928T0000Z/

Coastal Hancock-

226 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM

EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Large breaking waves of 5 to 9 feet. Highest waves will

  impact the outermost islands.

* WHERE...Coastal Hancock County.

* WHEN...From 8 AM Friday to 8 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Large waves can present a danger to people on rocks

  above the water. Stay away from rock outcrops along the

  shoreline exposed to ocean waves, as waves can easily sweep

  people into the cold ocean water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Surf Advisory Means That High Surf Will Affect Beaches In

The Advisory area...producing rip currents and localized beach

erosion.

&&

$$

First Nor'Easter Of The Season Forming

480

FXUS61 KCAR 240022

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

822 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

- Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Potential for frost tonight inland from the coast and north.

2) A coastal low will impact at least Downeast Maine late this

week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Potential for frost tonight inland from the

coast and north.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

The Frost Advisory has been expanded to include interior Hancock

and central Washington counties. Surface 1040mb high pressure

is centered over Quebec this afternoon, with upper level high

pressure building into the region from Ontario. This pattern

will continue tonight, resulting in clear skies and light winds,

similar to last night. Once again this should result in a cold

night, frost, and river valley fog. A modifying air mass could

limit how low temperatures fall tonight, but lows in the 30s are

expected outside the Downeast Coast. Northern areas of Maine

will likely reach freezing or below freezing. While not as cold

as tonight, Thursday night could see additional patchy frost

and fog, mainly in northern areas as clouds increase from the

south.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A coastal low will impact at least Downeast

Maine late this week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

A coastal low is expected to develop across the Mid-Atlantic

region late this week while high pressure remains centered over

Quebec. The timing and track of the ocean low is still uncertain

with blocking high pressure to the northwest of our forecast

area and ridging across the Great Lakes. Latest ECMWF guidance

delays the onset of rain into the weekend as the blocking high

remains resolute over Eastern Canada. This will result in

additional uncertainty in how close the low will pass to the

coast which will determine how far north the precipitation will

reach. Regardless, northerly to northeasterly winds will become

gusty over the weekend, especially along the coast, as a tight

pressure gradient forms. General trend currently is that the low

pressure system will continue to move southwards due to the

high pressure, with majority of the rain staying over the waters

and the Downeast region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Tonight...Variable conditions in patchy fog late. Otherwise,

VFR. Light and variable winds.

Thursday...Variable conditions in patchy fog early. Otherwise,

VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday night...Variable conditions in any patchy late night

fog, otherwise VFR. North/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots.

Friday - Monday...VFR north. VFR/MVFR Downeast with likely

rain. Across northern areas, N/NE winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming

NE Sunday. Across Downeast areas, N/NE winds 10 to 15 knots

with gusts up to around 20-25 knots at KBGR, and 30 knots

possible at KBHB Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Winds diminish

Sunday night back to 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight through

Thursday.

Northeast winds and seas increase to gales late Thursday night

into Friday, winds peaking around 45 knots in the outer waters

and around 40 knots in the coastal waters by Friday night. A

gale watch is now in effect from 8AM on Friday in outer waters

and from 5PM in coastal waters and will persist through at least

8PM Sunday night. Gales remain possible in the intracoastal

waters. Peak wave heights in the outer waters will be around 11ft

to 16ft, and around 7ft to 12ft in the coastal waters.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ME...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EDT Thursday for

     MEZ015>017.

MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday evening for

     ANZ050-051.

     Gale Watch from Friday morning through Sunday evening for

     ANZ080-081.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ASB/JS/MB/CN

AVIATION...ASB/JS/MB/CN

Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

405 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Valid 00Z Thu Sep 24 2026 - 00Z Sat Sep 26 2026

...Significant Heavy Rainfall/Flooding Threat across New Mexico and the

Southern High Plains through tomorrow...

...Developing coastal low spreads coastal flooding, rip currents, wind

gusts, and heavy rain along the East Coast this week...

This afternoon, satellite imagery depicts a plume of tropical moisture

streaming northward into the Southwest and Southern High Plains in between

a trough over Baja California, and an upper-high in the western Gulf. The

persistence of this pattern will fuel the threat for impactful flash

flooding over portions of Central New Mexico and the Southern Plains today

and tomorrow, especially in light of yesterday's rainfall. The greatest

coverage of heavy rainfall and flash flooding is expected later today into

the overnight hours, where some areas could see storm total rainfall of

2-4" on top of what fell yesterday. As such, locally significant and life

threatening impacts are possible, particularly across sensitive terrain,

urban areas, and burn scars. Tomorrow, rainfall coverage will decrease

somewhat, although significant flash flooding certainly remains possible

as any additional rain atop inundated soils will quickly translate to

runoff. Accordingly, Flood Watches are in affect through Thursday evening.

Further to the east, Sufficient moisture and slow-moving storms may lead

to flash flooding concerns across portions of the Ohio/Tennessee Valley

into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast along an inverted trough axis this

afternoon.

Meanwhile, a strong coastal low is expected to rapidly spin up in the

western Atlantic over the next 24-36 hours and approach southern New

England by Friday. This system will usher in a swath of hazardous weather

to portions of the East Coast, including significant coastal flooding, rip

currents, wind gusts in excess of 45 mph, and heavy rainfall. Coastal

residents are encouraged to heed local National Weather Service forecasts,

warnings, and the latest WPC Key Messages for this system at

wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

Another strong system is forecast over the Pacific Northwest late

tomorrow, which  will usher in soaking rains through Friday. As this

system intensifies, expanding coverage of showers and thunderstorms will

support at least an isolated risk of heavy rainfall over the Heartland on

Friday. In its wake, cooler than average temperatures will begin to set in

over the Northern Tier by Friday-Saturday.

Another Region Wide Frost Possible Overnight

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Caribou ME

414 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

MEZ015-241100-

/O.CON.KCAR.FR.Y.0008.260924T0400Z-260924T1100Z/

Southern Penobscot-

Including the cities of Old Town, Orono, Bangor, and Brewer

414 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EDT

THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 34 will result in frost formation.

* WHERE...Southern Penobscot County.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 7 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive

  outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

CN

5:08 PM ADT Wednesday 23 September 2026

Impact Level: Moderate

Forecast Confidence: High

Conditions are favourable for the development of frost tonight.

Minimum temperatures: plus 2.

Time span: late tonight and early Thursday morning, possibly again early Friday morning. 

Remarks: Patchy frost is expected to continue tonight as clear skies and light winds coincide with cool temperatures.

Cover up plants, especially those in frost-prone areas.

Frost advisories are issued when widespread frost or freezing temperatures are expected during the growing season.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NSstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on social media using #NSStorm.

In effect for:

Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

5:08 PM ADT Wednesday 23 September 2026

Impact Level: Moderate

Forecast Confidence: High

Conditions are favourable for the development of frost tonight.

Minimum temperatures: plus 1 to plus 3.

Time span: late tonight and early Thursday morning, possibly again Friday morning. 

Remarks: Patchy frost is expected to form over the next couple days as clear skies and light winds coincide with cool temperatures.

Damage to plants, trees, and crops is possible.

Cover up plants, especially those in frost-prone areas.

Frost advisories are issued when widespread frost or freezing temperatures are expected during the growing season.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to NBstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on social media using #NBStorm.

In effect for:

Fredericton and Southern York County

5:07 PM ADT Wednesday 23 September 2026

Impact Level: Moderate

Forecast Confidence: High

Conditions are favourable for the development of frost tonight.

Minimum temperatures: plus 2.

Time span: late tonight and early Thursday morning, possibly early Friday morning.

Remarks: Patchy frost is expected to form over the next couple days as clear skies and light winds coincide with cool temperatures.

Damage to plants, trees, and crops is possible.

Cover up plants, especially those in frost-prone areas.

Frost advisories are issued when widespread frost or freezing temperatures are expected during the growing season.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to PEstorm@ec.gc.ca or post reports on social media using #PEStorm.

In effect for:

Queens County P.E.I.

First Nor'Easter Of The Season Possible This Weekend

561

FXUS61 KGYX 222319

AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gray ME

719 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

A frost advisory has been issued for parts of central New

Hampshire and western Maine for tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. High pressure remains in control of the weather pattern

through late in the week.

2. A coastal storm may bring soaking rain, gusty winds, and high

surf from Friday through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

High pressure continues to build across northern New England

over the next couple of days. This brings with it a seasonably

cool airmass, as well as some chances for frost tonight and

again Wednesday night. A frost advisory has been issued for a

few zones that are still active through central New Hampshire

and parts of western Maine. South of these areas, a

northeasterly breeze overnight keeps any frost isolated and

patchy. Tomorrow night looks cooler as the high pressure center

peaks overhead, so more areas of frost will be possible tomorrow

night as well. During the daytime, mainly sunny skies with

highs in the 60s continue.

While the high brings cool and fair weather to northern New

England, it also keeps a developing storm system off the

Carolinas to our south. The surf will start to build on

Wednesday as a long easterly fetch develops across the North

Atlantic between the high overhead and the developing storm

system. These waves will steadily build on Thursday and through

the end of the week bringing increasingly large breaking surf

and rip currents. Most land based impacts from the system hold

off until at least this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Starting Friday...An area of low pressure offshore of the Mid-

Atlantic is forecast to slowly lift northward and deepen Friday into

the first part of the weekend before stalling out and meandering for

at least the second half of the weekend. There`s slightly more

agreement within today`s ensembles in the northward extent the

low gets, but there continues to be a fair amount of spread in

how far offshore it remains or if there is a drift back west

before pulling away early next week. The majority of the

GEFS/AIGFS ensemble members are favoring the low center closer

to but still south or east of Cape Cod while the majority of the

ECMWF camp favors the low a bit farther to the west...south of

the southern New England coast. It should be noted that each of

these models also has multiple members that support the other

solution as well as some farther offshore, so a degree of

certainty exists.

Of higher confidence/less uncertainty: either way, the pressure

gradient will be tight across the region between the low and a high

to the north and west. So gusty north to northeast winds are

increasingly likely, especially along the coast. In addition to

this, a long fetch of these winds and swell will build seas over the

Gulf of Maine and bring the threat of high surf and a high risk of

rip currents at area beaches. This will also coincide with a period

of high astronomical tides, and given the increasing wind/wave

forecast, coastal flooding will be another possibility surrounding

the times of high tide.

Lesser confidence and more uncertainty is how much rain will

fall, but there is potential for soaking rain, especially along

the coast and portions of southern NH. NBM PoPs bring the

higher (low end likely) PoPs along the coast and into southeast

NH which is sufficient for the time being given the remaining

spread in the guidance. Temperatures may also stay in the 50s if

the rainier/cloudier scenario pans out.

The weekend conditions may carry into Monday, but ensembles

favor the low pulling away to the east by Tuesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Through Wednesday...Widespread VFR conditions expected tonight.

Despite a light breeze I still think valley fog develops at both

LEB and HIE. Local IFR or lower conditions are expected thru

sunrise. VFR conditions will prevail again Wed with steady

northeast winds.

Outlook...

Friday: Mainly VFR.

Friday night-Sunday...Low pressure over the western Atlantic could

bring periods of MVFR ceilings and rain, especially along the coast

and southern NH. Visibilities may drop to IFR at times. In

addition, gusty north to northeast winds are possible.

&&

.MARINE...

An easterly swell continues to build over the next few days

while High pressure remains over the waters. SCA conditions

gradually spread north over the next couple of days, with waves

reaching 5ft starting across the southern waters by midday

Wednesday, and then expanding northward through Thursday.

Friday-Tuesday...Strong low pressure over the western Atlantic

and a high pressure to the north and west will result in a tight

pressure gradient over the waters. Although there is

uncertainty in where the low pressure center will be, increasing

north to northeast winds will likely result in at least SCA

conditions, but there`s increasing chances in seeing periods of

gales from Friday through the weekend and potentially into early

next week. Highest chances for gales will be outside of the

Bays and especially over the outer waters.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ME...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EDT Wednesday for

     MEZ012-033.

NH...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EDT Wednesday for

     NHZ003-004.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday

     for ANZ154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Clair/Combs

AVIATION...Legro

MARINE...Clair/Combs