Nor'Easter Batters New England Update One
541
FXUS61 KCAR 270407
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1207 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- 12:07AM UPDATE...Have cancelled the Gale Warning and issued a
Small Craft Advisory for the Coastal Waters from Eastport, ME
to Schoodic Point, ME out 25nm. Winds continue to underperform
guidance this far away from the Nor`easter low pressure center
well SW of the Gulf of Maine. Buoy observations show the NE
winds gusting up to 25-30kt and not expecting Gale Warning
conditions to be met. No other changes with this update.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A Noreaster will impact at least Downeast Maine this weekend
into Monday and possibly Tuesday, bringing gusty winds, high
surf, and periods of rain.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A Noreaster will impact at least Downeast Maine
this weekend into Monday and possibly Tuesday, bringing gusty
winds, high surf, and periods of rain.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
We are still expecting a strong Noreaster to impact our area
from through the weekend and into Monday. However, we
will be on the far northern fringe of the Noreaster with the
center staying south of Massachusetts through Sunday, and
impacts in Northern regions through Sunday will be much less than
areas further south. Here is what to expect for the various
components of the storm:
Periods of Rain...Rain chances will be far greater Downeast than
northern areas for the storm, with rain persisting off and on
into Tuesday. Short range model guidance remains resolute in the
more southerly track from yesterday. As a result, periods of
rain should reach the Downeast coast by late this afternoon
extending across Bangor and the interior Downeast through tonight.
Rainfall totals have now begun to paint a much clearer picture
as the event approaches. Precipitation amounts between 0.75
inches and 1.25 inch are expected across the Bangor region and
Downeast with localized totals up to 1.5 inches along the coast.
Much of this will wait until Sunday night and Monday to occur,
but even with these totals, we would not expect flooding. Sunday
night and Monday, a much weaker version of the Noreaster
finally lifts north and tracks into the Gulf of Maine, at which
point rain chances and totals finally increase over the whole
area. Northern Maine could finally see some rain late Monday
into Tuesday, but it looks like it will be fairly light with
maybe around one quarter inch.
Gusty Winds...Winds from the northeast will increase throughout
tonight, before becoming gusty overnight and through Sunday,
then diminishing through Monday. Winds will be stronger the
further south you go but will top out around 25 mph across
Bangor and the Downeast with the aforementioned southerly track
of the system. Isolated higher amounts along the coast cannot be
ruled out. We don`t anticipate impacts from the wind other than
maybe a very isolated outage Downeast.
High Surf...Seas near the shore will be fairly rough with 4-8
ft seas, much of it as a longer period south/southeast swell. We
are not expecting impactful coastal flooding, though waves
breaking on the rocks will be hazardous for any onlookers.
Conditions should be a bit more hazardous for coastal Hancock
than coastal Washington. Conditions slowly ease Sunday night
into Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tonight...VFR over Aroostook terminals. BGR/BHB dropping to MVFR
this evening in showers and low cigs. NE winds 10-15 gusting to
25kts through daybreak Downeast terminals with Aroostook
terminals seeing NE winds 3-8kts overnight.
Sunday - Monday Morning...VFR at Northern terminals, VFR/MVFR
Downeast with rain likely at times. Across northern terminals,
NE winds 5 to 10 kts. Across southern terminals, NE winds 10 to
15 kts, gusting to 25kts.
Monday Afternoon and Monday Night...Generally MVFR areawide
with rain likely. Possible IFR. NE wind 5-10 kts.
Tuesday night to Thursday...Mainly VFR with light winds.
&&
.MARINE...
Northeast winds slowly increase through tonight, peaking around
40kts in the outer waters and 35kts in the coastal waters by
this afternoon and persisting through Sunday night. A gale
warning is now in effect for both the coastal and outer waters
and persisting through 8PM Sunday. The updated storm track has
lowered the risk of gales in the inter coastal waters, but a
small craft advisory remains in effect. Wave heights have also
diminished with outer waters around 8-13ft and 4-8ft in the
coastal waters. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for coastal
Hancock County where large waves could pose a rip current risk
and impact people on rock outcrops. Winds/seas gradually
decrease beginning Sunday night and into Tuesday, and quiet
conditions should remain through Thursday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ050.
Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ051-080-081.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for ANZ052.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TF/ARL/JS/MB
AVIATION...21/TF/ARL/MB
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026
Valid 00Z Sun Sep 27 2026 - 00Z Tue Sep 29 2026
...Impacts from a significant Nor'easter will extend through the weekend
into Monday especially for the coastal sections of the northeastern U.S.
into the Mid-Atlantic...
...Moisture lifted ahead of a weak front could bring locally heavy rain
across Iowa tonight...
...Upper-level moisture drawn northeastward from the twin tropical
cyclones in the eastern Pacific could reach the Four Corners region by
Monday morning...
A strong low-pressure system continues to churn off the coast of the
northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England this Saturday afternoon.
Additional energy associated with an upper-level vortex will dig
southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic states to merge with this strong
cyclone centered a few hundred miles southeast of New York City. This
dynamical merging will pull the cyclone center closer toward New Jersey
and Long Island through tonight, resulting in the full force of this
Nor'easter impacting coastal southern New England to the northern
Mid-Atlantic by Sunday morning. North to northeasterly winds are forecast
to strengthen to gale or storm-force especially near the coast through
tonight, along with more frequent rounds of moderate to occasionally heavy
rain. In addition, major coastal flooding is expected along the
Mid-Atlantic Coast over multiple high tide cycles coming off a full moon
through the weekend. Prepare immediately for significant inundation in
low-lying areas near the shore, including roads underwater and impacts to
homes and businesses. Moreover, large breaking waves will continue to
generate strong rip currents, beach erosion, road closures, and property
damage for the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England into
Monday. In addition, waves of heavy rain may lead to inland flooding from
northern New Jersey into southern New England for much of Sunday, where
WPC continues to highlight a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall. From late Sunday into early Monday, the cyclone center is
forecast to stall near the New Jersey coast as the system begins to
steadily weaken. However, strong to gale-force onshore winds are still
expected along the New England coast from Cape Cod northward. Meanwhile,
moderate rain can be expected to linger across southern New England into
Monday. Please see the latest WPC Key Messages for this system at
wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.
Outside of the Nor'easter, weather conditions for the rest of the country
will be relatively less active through the remainder of the weekend. A
slug of moisture extending from Oklahoma to Minnesota will be lifted ahead
of a weak warm front. The rain could be enhanced by the passage of an
upper-level disturbance across Iowa this evening, where WPC is
highlighting a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall. By Sunday, a
high-pressure system building into the northern Plains will keep the
showers and thunderstorms more widely scattered along this corridor.
Sunday night into Monday morning should see new rounds of showers and
thunderstorms blossoming across the northern Plains as a low-pressure wave
forms over the northern High Plains behind the high-pressure system.
Meanwhile, tropical moisture transporting northeastward from the twin
tropical cyclones, Odalys and Polo, in the eastern Pacific is forecast to
reach the Four Corners region by Monday morning as rain expands across the
region with embedded thunderstorms ahead of an upper-level trough moving
onshore into California.
Kong
posted by Advackia at 10:06 PM
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