First Nor'Easter Of The Season Possible This Weekend
561
FXUS61 KGYX 222319
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
719 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A frost advisory has been issued for parts of central New
Hampshire and western Maine for tonight.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. High pressure remains in control of the weather pattern
through late in the week.
2. A coastal storm may bring soaking rain, gusty winds, and high
surf from Friday through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
High pressure continues to build across northern New England
over the next couple of days. This brings with it a seasonably
cool airmass, as well as some chances for frost tonight and
again Wednesday night. A frost advisory has been issued for a
few zones that are still active through central New Hampshire
and parts of western Maine. South of these areas, a
northeasterly breeze overnight keeps any frost isolated and
patchy. Tomorrow night looks cooler as the high pressure center
peaks overhead, so more areas of frost will be possible tomorrow
night as well. During the daytime, mainly sunny skies with
highs in the 60s continue.
While the high brings cool and fair weather to northern New
England, it also keeps a developing storm system off the
Carolinas to our south. The surf will start to build on
Wednesday as a long easterly fetch develops across the North
Atlantic between the high overhead and the developing storm
system. These waves will steadily build on Thursday and through
the end of the week bringing increasingly large breaking surf
and rip currents. Most land based impacts from the system hold
off until at least this weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
Starting Friday...An area of low pressure offshore of the Mid-
Atlantic is forecast to slowly lift northward and deepen Friday into
the first part of the weekend before stalling out and meandering for
at least the second half of the weekend. There`s slightly more
agreement within today`s ensembles in the northward extent the
low gets, but there continues to be a fair amount of spread in
how far offshore it remains or if there is a drift back west
before pulling away early next week. The majority of the
GEFS/AIGFS ensemble members are favoring the low center closer
to but still south or east of Cape Cod while the majority of the
ECMWF camp favors the low a bit farther to the west...south of
the southern New England coast. It should be noted that each of
these models also has multiple members that support the other
solution as well as some farther offshore, so a degree of
certainty exists.
Of higher confidence/less uncertainty: either way, the pressure
gradient will be tight across the region between the low and a high
to the north and west. So gusty north to northeast winds are
increasingly likely, especially along the coast. In addition to
this, a long fetch of these winds and swell will build seas over the
Gulf of Maine and bring the threat of high surf and a high risk of
rip currents at area beaches. This will also coincide with a period
of high astronomical tides, and given the increasing wind/wave
forecast, coastal flooding will be another possibility surrounding
the times of high tide.
Lesser confidence and more uncertainty is how much rain will
fall, but there is potential for soaking rain, especially along
the coast and portions of southern NH. NBM PoPs bring the
higher (low end likely) PoPs along the coast and into southeast
NH which is sufficient for the time being given the remaining
spread in the guidance. Temperatures may also stay in the 50s if
the rainier/cloudier scenario pans out.
The weekend conditions may carry into Monday, but ensembles
favor the low pulling away to the east by Tuesday of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through Wednesday...Widespread VFR conditions expected tonight.
Despite a light breeze I still think valley fog develops at both
LEB and HIE. Local IFR or lower conditions are expected thru
sunrise. VFR conditions will prevail again Wed with steady
northeast winds.
Outlook...
Friday: Mainly VFR.
Friday night-Sunday...Low pressure over the western Atlantic could
bring periods of MVFR ceilings and rain, especially along the coast
and southern NH. Visibilities may drop to IFR at times. In
addition, gusty north to northeast winds are possible.
&&
.MARINE...
An easterly swell continues to build over the next few days
while High pressure remains over the waters. SCA conditions
gradually spread north over the next couple of days, with waves
reaching 5ft starting across the southern waters by midday
Wednesday, and then expanding northward through Thursday.
Friday-Tuesday...Strong low pressure over the western Atlantic
and a high pressure to the north and west will result in a tight
pressure gradient over the waters. Although there is
uncertainty in where the low pressure center will be, increasing
north to northeast winds will likely result in at least SCA
conditions, but there`s increasing chances in seeing periods of
gales from Friday through the weekend and potentially into early
next week. Highest chances for gales will be outside of the
Bays and especially over the outer waters.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EDT Wednesday for
MEZ012-033.
NH...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EDT Wednesday for
NHZ003-004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday
for ANZ154.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Clair/Combs
AVIATION...Legro
MARINE...Clair/Combs
posted by Advackia at 6:58 PM
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