Nor'Easter Batters New England Update One

541

FXUS61 KCAR 270407

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

1207 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

- 12:07AM UPDATE...Have cancelled the Gale Warning and issued a

  Small Craft Advisory for the Coastal Waters from Eastport, ME

  to Schoodic Point, ME out 25nm. Winds continue to underperform

  guidance this far away from the Nor`easter low pressure center

  well SW of the Gulf of Maine. Buoy observations show the NE

  winds gusting up to 25-30kt and not expecting Gale Warning

  conditions to be met. No other changes with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) A Noreaster will impact at least Downeast Maine this weekend

into Monday and possibly Tuesday, bringing gusty winds, high

surf, and periods of rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A Noreaster will impact at least Downeast Maine

this weekend into Monday and possibly Tuesday, bringing gusty

winds, high surf, and periods of rain.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

We are still expecting a strong Noreaster to impact our area

from through the weekend and into Monday. However, we

will be on the far northern fringe of the Noreaster with the

center staying south of Massachusetts through Sunday, and

impacts in Northern regions through Sunday will be much less than

areas further south. Here is what to expect for the various

components of the storm:

Periods of Rain...Rain chances will be far greater Downeast than

northern areas for the storm, with rain persisting off and on

into Tuesday. Short range model guidance remains resolute in the

more southerly track from yesterday. As a result, periods of

rain should reach the Downeast coast by late this afternoon

extending across Bangor and the interior Downeast through tonight.

Rainfall totals have now begun to paint a much clearer picture

as the event approaches. Precipitation amounts between 0.75

inches and 1.25 inch are expected across the Bangor region and

Downeast with localized totals up to 1.5 inches along the coast.

Much of this will wait until Sunday night and Monday to occur,

but even with these totals, we would not expect flooding. Sunday

night and Monday, a much weaker version of the Noreaster

finally lifts north and tracks into the Gulf of Maine, at which

point rain chances and totals finally increase over the whole

area. Northern Maine could finally see some rain late Monday

into Tuesday, but it looks like it will be fairly light with

maybe around one quarter inch.

Gusty Winds...Winds from the northeast will increase throughout

tonight, before becoming gusty overnight and through Sunday,

then diminishing through Monday. Winds will be stronger the

further south you go but will top out around 25 mph across

Bangor and the Downeast with the aforementioned southerly track

of the system. Isolated higher amounts along the coast cannot be

ruled out. We don`t anticipate impacts from the wind other than

maybe a very isolated outage Downeast.

High Surf...Seas near the shore will be fairly rough with 4-8

ft seas, much of it as a longer period south/southeast swell. We

are not expecting impactful coastal flooding, though waves

breaking on the rocks will be hazardous for any onlookers.

Conditions should be a bit more hazardous for coastal Hancock

than coastal Washington. Conditions slowly ease Sunday night

into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Tonight...VFR over Aroostook terminals. BGR/BHB dropping to MVFR

this evening in showers and low cigs. NE winds 10-15 gusting to

25kts through daybreak Downeast terminals with Aroostook

terminals seeing NE winds 3-8kts overnight.

Sunday - Monday Morning...VFR at Northern terminals, VFR/MVFR

Downeast with rain likely at times. Across northern terminals,

NE winds 5 to 10 kts. Across southern terminals, NE winds 10 to

15 kts, gusting to 25kts.

Monday Afternoon and Monday Night...Generally MVFR areawide

with rain likely. Possible IFR. NE wind 5-10 kts.

Tuesday night to Thursday...Mainly VFR with light winds.

&&

.MARINE...

Northeast winds slowly increase through tonight, peaking around

40kts in the outer waters and 35kts in the coastal waters by

this afternoon and persisting through Sunday night. A gale

warning is now in effect for both the coastal and outer waters

and persisting through 8PM Sunday. The updated storm track has

lowered the risk of gales in the inter coastal waters, but a

small craft advisory remains in effect. Wave heights have also

diminished with outer waters around 8-13ft and 4-8ft in the

coastal waters. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for coastal

Hancock County where large waves could pose a rip current risk

and impact people on rock outcrops. Winds/seas gradually

decrease beginning Sunday night and into Tuesday, and quiet

conditions should remain through Thursday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ050.

     Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ051-080-081.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for ANZ052.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TF/ARL/JS/MB

AVIATION...21/TF/ARL/MB

Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

400 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Valid 00Z Sun Sep 27 2026 - 00Z Tue Sep 29 2026

...Impacts from a significant Nor'easter will extend through the weekend

into Monday especially for the coastal sections of the northeastern U.S.

into the Mid-Atlantic...

...Moisture lifted ahead of a weak front could bring locally heavy rain

across Iowa tonight...

...Upper-level moisture drawn northeastward from the twin tropical

cyclones in the eastern Pacific could reach the Four Corners region by

Monday morning...

A strong low-pressure system continues to churn off the coast of the

northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England this Saturday afternoon.

Additional energy associated with an upper-level vortex will dig

southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic states to merge with this strong

cyclone centered a few hundred miles southeast of New York City. This

dynamical merging will pull the cyclone center closer toward New Jersey

and Long Island through tonight, resulting in the full force of this

Nor'easter impacting coastal southern New England to the northern

Mid-Atlantic by Sunday morning.  North to northeasterly winds are forecast

to strengthen to gale or storm-force especially near the coast through

tonight, along with more frequent rounds of moderate to occasionally heavy

rain. In addition, major coastal flooding is expected along the

Mid-Atlantic Coast over multiple high tide cycles coming off a full moon

through the weekend. Prepare immediately for significant inundation in

low-lying areas near the shore, including roads underwater and impacts to

homes and businesses. Moreover, large breaking waves will continue to

generate strong rip currents, beach erosion, road closures, and property

damage for the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England into

Monday. In addition, waves of heavy rain may lead to inland flooding from

northern New Jersey into southern New England for much of Sunday, where

WPC continues to highlight a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive

rainfall. From late Sunday into early Monday, the cyclone center is

forecast to stall near the New Jersey coast as the system begins to

steadily weaken. However, strong to gale-force onshore winds are still

expected along the New England coast from Cape Cod northward. Meanwhile,

moderate rain can be expected to linger across southern New England into

Monday. Please see the latest WPC Key Messages for this system at

wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

Outside of the Nor'easter, weather conditions for the rest of the country

will be relatively less active through the remainder of the weekend. A

slug of moisture extending from Oklahoma to Minnesota will be lifted ahead

of a weak warm front. The rain could be enhanced by the passage of an

upper-level disturbance across Iowa this evening, where WPC is

highlighting a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall. By Sunday, a

high-pressure system building into the northern Plains will keep the

showers and thunderstorms more widely scattered along this corridor. 

Sunday night into Monday morning should see new rounds of showers and

thunderstorms blossoming across the northern Plains as a low-pressure wave

forms over the northern High Plains behind the high-pressure system.

Meanwhile, tropical moisture transporting northeastward from the twin

tropical cyclones, Odalys and Polo, in the eastern Pacific is forecast to

reach the Four Corners region by Monday morning as rain expands across the

region with embedded thunderstorms ahead of an upper-level trough moving

onshore into California.

Kong