Nor'Easter Batters New England

161

FXUS61 KCAR 260020

AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

820 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

- 8 PM Update to Aviation section with issuance of 00z TAFs.

  Capped wind gusts on intracoastals to below 35 kts through the

  storm with this update as well.

- Trended lower on rain and winds. For wind, delayed the start

  of the gale warning over the waters.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) A Noreaster will impact at least Downeast Maine

this weekend into Monday and possibly Tuesday, bringing gusty

winds, high surf, and periods of rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A Noreaster will impact at least Downeast Maine

this weekend into Monday and possibly Tuesday, bringing gusty

winds, high surf, and periods of rain.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

We are still expecting a strong Noreaster to impact our area

from through the weekend and into Monday. However, we

will be on the far northern fringe of the Noreaster with the

center staying south of Massachusetts through Sunday, and

impacts in Northern regions through Sunday will be much less than

areas further south. Here is what to expect for the various

components of the storm:

Periods of Rain...Rain chances will be far greater Downeast than

northern areas for the storm, with rain possibly developing late

Saturday and Saturday night, and persisting off and on through

Monday and possibly even Tuesday. Short range model guidance

has adjusted the track of the system to remain much further

south than previous thought. As a result, periods of rain should

reach the Downeast coast by late Saturday afternoon, extending

across Bangor and the interior Downeast by Saturday night. Rain

fall totals have coalesced somewhat in with the updated track.

Precipitation amounts between 0.25 inches and 1 inch are

expected across the Bangor region with localized totals up to

1.5 inches along the coast. Much of this will wait until Sunday

night and Monday to occur. Even with these totals, we would not

expect flooding. Sunday night and Monday, a much weaker version

of the Noreaster finally lifts north and tracks into the Gulf

of Maine, at which point rain chances and totals finally

increase over the whole area. Northern Maine could finally see

some rain late Monday into Tuesday, but it looks like it will be

fairly light with maybe around one quarter inch.

Gusty Winds...Winds from the northeast will increase Friday

night into Saturday, before becoming gusty by Saturday and

through Sunday, then decrease a bit into Monday. Winds will be

stronger the further south you go but will top out around 25 mph

across Bangor and the Downeast with the aforementioned

southerly track of the system, with isolated higher amounts

along the coast. We don`t anticipate impacts from the wind other

than maybe a very isolated outage Downeast.

High Surf...Seas near the shore will be fairly rough with 4-8

ft seas, much of it as a longer period south/southeast swell. We

are not expecting impactful coastal flooding, though waves

breaking on the rocks will be hazardous for any onlookers.

Conditions should be a bit more hazardous for coastal Hancock

than coastal Washington. Conditions slowly ease Sunday night

into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

00z Update: Delayed timing of peak winds and lowered cigs, now

most likely to occur beginning early Sunday morning.

Tonight...VFR at all terminals. Winds light and variable.

Saturday - Saturday night...VFR cross all terminals. Light

winds increasing through the afternoon, becoming NE 10 to 15 kts

with gusts 20 to 25 kts at Downeast terminals, and NE 5 to 10

kts with gusts to 15 kts at northern terminals. Rain moving in

late to coastal terminals.

Sunday - Monday...VFR at Northern terminals, VFR/MVFR Downeast

with rain likely at times. Across northern terminals, NE winds

5 to 10 kts. Across southern terminals, NE winds 10 to 15 kts,

gusting 20 to 30 kts.

Monday Night and Tuesday...Generally MVFR with rain likely. NE

wind 5-10 kts.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...Mainly VFR with light winds.

&&

.MARINE...

Northeast winds slowly increase through Saturday night, peaking

around 40kts in the outer waters and 35kts in the coastal

waters by Saturday afternoon and persisting through Monday. A

gale warning is now in effect in the outer waters, extending to

the coastal waters by 8AM Saturday and persisting through 8PM

Sunday. The updated storm track has lowered the risk of gales in

the inter coastal waters, but a small craft advisory remains in

effect. Wave heights have also diminished with outer waters

around 8-13ft and 4-8ft in the coastal waters. A High Surf

Advisory is in effect for coastal Hancock County where large

waves could pose a rip current risk and impact people on rock

outcrops. Winds/seas gradually decrease Sunday into Tuesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for MEZ029.

MARINE...Gale Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ050-

     051.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ052.

     Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ080-081.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TF/ARL/MB

AVIATION...AES/ASB/TF/ARL/MB

Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

403 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Valid 00Z Sat Sep 26 2026 - 00Z Mon Sep 28 2026

...Strong nor'easter off the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will bring

significant coastal flooding, rip currents, powerful wind gusts, and heavy

rain to the region this weekend...

...Rain and mountain snow continues into Saturday for the Pacific

Northwest as a storm system moves through...

...Showers and thunderstorms will lead to flash flooding and severe

weather risks across parts of the central U.S. the next couple of days..

A rapidly strengthening nor'easter in the western Atlantic will bring

significant coastal impacts to much of the Eastern Seaboard through this

weekend and into early next week. As the low pressure center tracks

northward towards Long Island, rain will expand across the Mid-Atlantic

and Northeast through tonight and into Saturday. Rain will become heavy at

times across southern New England where several inches may lead to inland

flooding. Rain will continue to wrap around the system through Sunday as

the storm approaches the New Jersey coast before looping to the northeast

early next week. In addition to the rain, wind gusts in excess of 50 mph

are likely for eastern Long Island and southeastern New England, which

will lead to power outages and tree damage in some areas. These

persistently strong onshore winds combined with high surf and high

astronomical tides will likely result in widespread major coastal flooding

through the weekend. Significant inundation in low-lying areas is likely

near the shore. Dangerous rip currents and beach erosion will also be

major concerns. Please see the latest WPC Key Messages for more

information on this system at wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

Elsewhere across the country, a Pacific storm will continue to bring

widespread low elevation rain and high elevation snow to parts of the

Pacific Northwest tonight into Saturday. Meanwhile farther east, surging

moisture and instability will lead to numerous showers and thunderstorms

from the southern and central Plains to parts of the Mid and Upper

Mississippi Valley the next couple of days. Localized to scattered

instances of flash flooding will be possible, and isolated severe weather

is not ruled out.

Miller

Coastal Hazard Message

National Weather Service Gray ME

229 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

MEZ023-NHZ014-260800-

/O.CON.KGYX.SU.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-260928T0000Z/

/O.CON.KGYX.CF.Y.0004.260926T1400Z-260928T0300Z/

Coastal York-Coastal Rockingham-

229 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SATURDAY

TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 7 to

  12 feet and a high risk of rip currents. For the Coastal Flood

  Advisory, minor coastal flooding with up to 1 foot of inundation

  and large breaking waves leading to splash over and beach

  erosion. This is a long duration event...with these impacts felt

  over multiple tide cycles beginning Saturday morning and

  continuing through Sunday evening.

* WHERE...In Maine, Coastal York County. In New Hampshire,

  Coastal Rockingham County.

* WHEN...For the High Surf Advisory, until 8 PM EDT Sunday. For

  the Coastal Flood Advisory, from 10 AM Saturday to 11 PM EDT

  Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only

  isolated road closures expected. Dangerous swimming and

  surfing conditions and localized beach erosion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be

closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of

unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone

property.

Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to

dangerous surf conditions.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

Seavey Island / Portsmouth NH

MLLW Categories - Minor 11.5 ft, Moderate 12.5 ft, Major 13.5 ft

MHHW Categories - Minor 2.6 ft, Moderate 3.6 ft, Major 4.6 ft

             Total      Total    Departure

 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood

            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact

 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------

 25/11 PM    10.3        1.4        1.6        8       None

 26/12 PM    10.9        2.0        2.2        9       None

 27/12 AM    10.8        1.9        1.9       10       None

 27/12 PM    10.8        1.9        1.7       10       None

 28/01 AM    10.2        1.3        1.4        9       None

Hampton Harbor NH

MLLW Categories - Minor 11.0 ft, Moderate 12.0 ft, Major 13.0 ft

MHHW Categories - Minor 1.4 ft, Moderate 2.4 ft, Major 3.4 ft

             Total      Total    Departure

 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Waves    Flood

            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft       ft      Impact

 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------

 25/11 PM    10.6        1.0        1.6        2       None

 26/12 PM    11.2        1.6        2.2        3      Minor

 27/12 AM    11.2        1.6        2.1        3      Minor

 27/12 PM    11.1        1.5        1.7        3      Minor

 28/01 AM    10.5        0.9        1.4       2-3      None

&&

$$